5 ms·
on the one hand, yes ecology and math bio is cool. On the other, the demographic transition does not fall out of these models whatsoever. Humans decided to do s
by waveBidder 1y ago
on the one hand, yes ecology and math bio is cool. On the other, the demographic transition does not fall out of these models whatsoever. Humans decided to do something very weird for whatever reason.
- Kim_Bruning 1y agoThe actual population size during demographic transition looks very logistic-y. You'd be forgiven for thinking Verhulst applies. (though K is very much an empirical constant in that case, since you can't easily predict it from anything I don't think.)
- thatnerd 1y agoI think the demographic transition overshoot (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition#Stage_five https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition#Stage_f...) we see is unexpected though.
- thatnerd 1y agoYeah the demographic transition is something nobody predicted (afaik). On the other hand, LTG (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth) is a neo-Malthusian prediction that seems to match early data, and a surprising number of people revisit it and find its conclusions seem to hold. We'll be finding out around 2040, give or take. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯