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> Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? Isn't that the point? If things are so unstable, you avoi

> Who's going to bother to invest in American manufacturing when the tariff "strategy" changes daily? Isn't that the point? If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically.

only-one1701 1y ago
[flagged]
macintux 1y ago
Manufacturing is extremely capital-intensive with a lead time of years. That's a huge gamble to make when policy will probably change by the time you're done and leave you manufacturing at a big loss.
taylortbb 1y ago
But then you risk tariff policy changing, and suddenly you're undercut by foreign factories again, and you lose all your investment in the American factory. It still needs certainty that the tariffs are staying. The uncertainty only works to return manufacturing where America is cost-competitive without tariffs, and that's a tiny slice of manufacturing.
megaman821 1y ago
No, what if the tariffs go away before you are done building your widget factory. Now you have widgets that are too expensive to sell to anyone. If they want anyone to believe that the tariffs will remain in effect long enough to make a profit, they will need to pass a bill. Ideally, a bill that ratchets tariffs up over a long enough period of time to actually build the capacity in the US of the thing you want to tariff.
- peeters 1y ago
  Still not sure a bill will give you that stability, since Trump has used loopholes to sidestep ratified trade agreements that he himself negotiated. Anything signed by this President isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
- whatshisface 1y ago
  A bill wouldn't provide any security. It'd just be repealed as soon as the economic stagnation set in. If you wanted to build a factory through socialist policy, the only way to do it would be to cover the capital costs with direct investment by the treasury.
vel0city 1y ago
No, because all your precursor components are also fluctuating massively every few days. How do you produce and price widgets when widget grease is $1 on Monday and $10 on Tuesday? You don't. You just give up on that market.
triceratops 1y ago
Yeah investors love investing in unstable places /s
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
hedora 1y ago
The tariffs hit domestic manufacturers harder than imports, so no? If manufacturers move overseas, they (so far) get to compete for US business on a level playing field, and (in some alternate countries) can make planning decisions that assume due process exists and the law will be upheld. In the worst case, they can sell everywhere but the US. If they move to the US, the cost of their inputs varies 100% week over week, and 2/3rds of their highly skilled factory workers are subject to random imprisonment. Also, the president will use market manipulation and insider trading schemes to raid their capital reserves, then brag about it on video.
mcphage 1y ago
> If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically. That’s not avoiding the instability, that’s suffering the full brunt of the instability. That’s completely backwards.
aredox 1y ago
And then you get defrauded, and the mad king pardons the person who robbed you? Like he pardoned Justin Sun, Trevor Milton, Carlos Watson, etc?
rsynnott 1y ago
Manufacturing doesn't just happen magically. You need factories and a trained workforce, and various infrastructure. The point is that you may not be keen to invest now in building a factory that'll be usable in a couple of years if everything is constantly changing every week.

only-one1701 1y ago

[flagged]

macintux 1y ago

Manufacturing is extremely capital-intensive with a lead time of years. That's a huge gamble to make when policy will probably change by the time you're done and leave you manufacturing at a big loss.

taylortbb 1y ago

But then you risk tariff policy changing, and suddenly you're undercut by foreign factories again, and you lose all your investment in the American factory. It still needs certainty that the tariffs are staying. The uncertainty only works to return manufacturing where America is cost-competitive without tariffs, and that's a tiny slice of manufacturing.

megaman821 1y ago

No, what if the tariffs go away before you are done building your widget factory. Now you have widgets that are too expensive to sell to anyone. If they want anyone to believe that the tariffs will remain in effect long enough to make a profit, they will need to pass a bill. Ideally, a bill that ratchets tariffs up over a long enough period of time to actually build the capacity in the US of the thing you want to tariff.

peeters 1y ago
Still not sure a bill will give you that stability, since Trump has used loopholes to sidestep ratified trade agreements that he himself negotiated. Anything signed by this President isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
whatshisface 1y ago
A bill wouldn't provide any security. It'd just be repealed as soon as the economic stagnation set in. If you wanted to build a factory through socialist policy, the only way to do it would be to cover the capital costs with direct investment by the treasury.

vel0city 1y ago

No, because all your precursor components are also fluctuating massively every few days. How do you produce and price widgets when widget grease is $1 on Monday and $10 on Tuesday? You don't. You just give up on that market.

triceratops 1y ago

Yeah investors love investing in unstable places /s

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

hedora 1y ago

The tariffs hit domestic manufacturers harder than imports, so no? If manufacturers move overseas, they (so far) get to compete for US business on a level playing field, and (in some alternate countries) can make planning decisions that assume due process exists and the law will be upheld. In the worst case, they can sell everywhere but the US. If they move to the US, the cost of their inputs varies 100% week over week, and 2/3rds of their highly skilled factory workers are subject to random imprisonment. Also, the president will use market manipulation and insider trading schemes to raid their capital reserves, then brag about it on video.

mcphage 1y ago

> If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically. That’s not avoiding the instability, that’s suffering the full brunt of the instability. That’s completely backwards.

aredox 1y ago

And then you get defrauded, and the mad king pardons the person who robbed you? Like he pardoned Justin Sun, Trevor Milton, Carlos Watson, etc?

rsynnott 1y ago

Manufacturing doesn't just happen magically. You need factories and a trained workforce, and various infrastructure. The point is that you may not be keen to invest now in building a factory that'll be usable in a couple of years if everything is constantly changing every week.