5 ms·

While I have no doubt that insider trading happens quite regularly, I would not jump to that conclusion here. IIRC the previous day, big Wall street names were

by svg7 1y ago

While I have no doubt that insider trading happens quite regularly, I would not jump to that conclusion here. IIRC the previous day, big Wall street names were advocating for a pause in tariffs . So a lot of people placed bets accordingly. Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.

eru 1y ago
> Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders. Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen?
- svg7 1y ago
  Yes, in theory, anyone can be an insider. But folks up in the chain are much more likely to be "insiders with information". I should have probably said "very rich insiders" instead of "true insiders."
- DeathArrow 1y ago
  >Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen? I thought the article itself and comments here presume bad faith on behalf of the highest ranking officials.
  - eru 1y ago
    Yes, sorry, I was only replying to the general point. About the specifics we have here: It's sad that the highest ranking officials are willing to corrupt themselves over a few million here or there. (And that's already pretty high by corruption standards. Usually you here of even much lower bribes etc being enough.) To be pithy: I'm not angry that you can buy officials and politicians. I'm angry that the price is so low.
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  2.5M on 0 day options is not small change at all, even for somewhat big players. 0 day - means it's a win big or loose 2.5M on a single day move.
  - eru 1y ago
    Is it 2.5M notional (that's not necessarily a lot, especially if the options aren't (much) out of the money), or 2.5M premium paid?
    - TheAlchemist 1y ago
      2.5M premium paid
- ascorbic 1y ago
  That was just one of many trades. The follow-up has deatils of many more https://data-and-politics.ghost.io/this-is-what-insider-trading-looks-like/ https://data-and-politics.ghost.io/this-is-what-insider-trad...
  - eru 1y ago
    Sorry, I was just replying to the general point. I am sure there's lots more details for this particular case.
DeathArrow 1y ago
>Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders. Well, if it was insider trading, Trump and his billionaire friends wouldn't invest just 2.5 million. That's a meager sum for the very wealthy. Maybe they've even done insider trading but in ways that weren't so obvious.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
sorokod 1y ago
Could a test run by "very rich insiders". To gauge the system's reaction before the next one, possibly a deal with China.
w10-1 1y ago
> So a lot of people placed bets accordingly But why not earlier in the day? Why this unique volume spike then? The one $2.5M is just a sample trade, part of a historic spike. No one's jumping to conclusions, but it should trigger an investigation.
- lucaspm98 1y ago
  Everyone is jumping to conclusions. The majority of comments on this thread are assuming this is at least someone with inside knowledge, and several are saying Trump or his administration are directly involved.
- koolba 1y ago
  Has it even been confirmed that all the trades are the same entity? Or is it the usual momentum play?
- bigbacaloa 1y ago
  [dead]
az226 1y ago
But these rumors were said and talked about several days. But no big options trade was made before the actual day of announcement. That’s why it’s telling.

by svg7 1y ago

eru 1y ago

> Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders. Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen?

svg7 1y ago
Yes, in theory, anyone can be an insider. But folks up in the chain are much more likely to be "insiders with information". I should have probably said "very rich insiders" instead of "true insiders."
DeathArrow 1y ago
>Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen? I thought the article itself and comments here presume bad faith on behalf of the highest ranking officials.
- eru 1y ago
  Yes, sorry, I was only replying to the general point. About the specifics we have here: It's sad that the highest ranking officials are willing to corrupt themselves over a few million here or there. (And that's already pretty high by corruption standards. Usually you here of even much lower bribes etc being enough.) To be pithy: I'm not angry that you can buy officials and politicians. I'm angry that the price is so low.
TheAlchemist 1y ago
2.5M on 0 day options is not small change at all, even for somewhat big players. 0 day - means it's a win big or loose 2.5M on a single day move.
- eru 1y ago
  Is it 2.5M notional (that's not necessarily a lot, especially if the options aren't (much) out of the money), or 2.5M premium paid?
  - TheAlchemist 1y ago
    2.5M premium paid
ascorbic 1y ago
That was just one of many trades. The follow-up has deatils of many more https://data-and-politics.ghost.io/this-is-what-insider-trading-looks-like/ https://data-and-politics.ghost.io/this-is-what-insider-trad...
- eru 1y ago
  Sorry, I was just replying to the general point. I am sure there's lots more details for this particular case.

DeathArrow 1y ago

>Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders. Well, if it was insider trading, Trump and his billionaire friends wouldn't invest just 2.5 million. That's a meager sum for the very wealthy. Maybe they've even done insider trading but in ways that weren't so obvious.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

sorokod 1y ago

Could a test run by "very rich insiders". To gauge the system's reaction before the next one, possibly a deal with China.

w10-1 1y ago

> So a lot of people placed bets accordingly But why not earlier in the day? Why this unique volume spike then? The one $2.5M is just a sample trade, part of a historic spike. No one's jumping to conclusions, but it should trigger an investigation.

lucaspm98 1y ago
Everyone is jumping to conclusions. The majority of comments on this thread are assuming this is at least someone with inside knowledge, and several are saying Trump or his administration are directly involved.
koolba 1y ago
Has it even been confirmed that all the trades are the same entity? Or is it the usual momentum play?
bigbacaloa 1y ago
[dead]

az226 1y ago

But these rumors were said and talked about several days. But no big options trade was made before the actual day of announcement. That’s why it’s telling.