4 ms·

It’s cheaper to travel to Canada or Mexico than to buy it at that price.

alephnerd 1y ago
Most people aren't buying a 1TB iPhone Pro Max - which is the model described by analysts. Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost, but increase prices by 10-15%. Most other retailers are thinking the same. This was noted in the Reuters article [0] this macrumors article stole content from: > the company will have a tough time passing on more than 5% to 10% of the cost to consumers. > "We expect Apple to hold off on any major increases on phones until this fall when its iPhone 17 is set to launch, as it is typically how it handles planned price hikes." [0] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-apple-iphones-more-expensive-2025-04-03/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-a...
- jpeter 1y ago
  > Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost No
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    Did you read the original Reuters report this macrumors article stole content from? Price Elasticity is very much a thing.
    - wg0 1y ago
      Which would reduce the profit margin and then PE ratio and then market capitalisation. Who would want that?
      - alephnerd 1y ago
        The alternative is severely reduced purchases, which are an even more severe hit to all the metrics mentioned. Margins are important, but so is rate of sales. Hence the statements in the original Reuters article.
        JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > alternative is severely reduced purchases Doubt it. Keep a cheap upgrade option with an older and reduced BOM and then use the tariffs as an excuse to boost the top-of-the-line offering to $3k.
        alephnerd 1y ago
        I agree with that, and that is most likely what will happen. But my point is I would be very shocked if base model iPhones, lower specced Pro models, and the 16e would see a price increase beyond 15%. At the higher tier (Pro Max, and maybe even Pro) absolutely, as those were already out of the price range of the average consumer.
        JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > would be very shocked if base model iPhones, lower specced Pro models, and the 16e would see a price increase beyond 15% I’ll also be shocked if they take much margin hit there. All of the iPhone’s competitors are also getting tariffed, after all. And the tariffs don’t bridge the labour-cost difference, so it’s not like launching domestic production would make sense even if you could trust that these policies will stick.
        petre 1y ago
        That's why Buffet sold his Apple stock: he saw this coming. Now he can buy it at a discount.
        wg0 1y ago
        Apple consumers aren't price sensitive. If they were, they wouldn't buy Apple.
rsynnott 1y ago
I mean, if the Trump tariffs hold up, I assume the US will have to get a lot stricter on customs; you’d absolutely expect smuggling on a massive scale otherwise.
- ttyprintk 1y ago
  There are already Trump NFT tokens, those could serve as tariff stamps whenever a phone crosses jurisdictions or during spot checks.
Symbiote 1y ago
If the US increases customs checks, and if the person is caught, that risks seizure of the phone and a fine starting at $300.
- afinlayson 1y ago
  “If” is doing a lot of work there. Do you think they’ll slow down airports and port of entries to check everyone’s personal phone? Maybe if you buy 3+ to sell. But there’s congressmen who fly with guns on their carryon. Let’s tackle serious threats first.
  - bolognafairy 1y ago
    > Let’s tackle serious threats first. What’s your actual point or argument here? You seem to start off arguing that it won’t happen, and you finish by arguing that you don’t think that it should happen, i.e. if you had things your way, it’d be different. Which is it? They aren’t the same thing.
- Tadpole9181 1y ago
  You think customs will check if you're using the same phone that you left with? What, will there be a national registry?
  - Symbiote 1y ago
    Someone carrying a new phone in the original box would need to prove they purchased it in the USA. Discard the box in Canada and it's a lot less suspicious. Customs are unlikely to find the phone unless they have some other reason to search, or unless it's in checked baggage and there are several. Some countries do routinely scan all incoming hand luggage, but it's so long since I visited the USA I don't remember if they do. In some countries visitors declare what they're bringing, so they don't pay tax on that so long as they take it with them when they leave.

Most people aren't buying a 1TB iPhone Pro Max - which is the model described by analysts. Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost, but increase prices by 10-15%. Most other retailers are thinking the same. This was noted in the Reuters article [0] this macrumors article stole content from: > the company will have a tough time passing on more than 5% to 10% of the cost to consumers. > "We expect Apple to hold off on any major increases on phones until this fall when its iPhone 17 is set to launch, as it is typically how it handles planned price hikes." [0] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-apple-iphones-more-expensive-2025-04-03/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-a...

jpeter 1y ago
> Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost No
- alephnerd 1y ago
  Did you read the original Reuters report this macrumors article stole content from? Price Elasticity is very much a thing.
  - wg0 1y ago
    Which would reduce the profit margin and then PE ratio and then market capitalisation. Who would want that?
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      The alternative is severely reduced purchases, which are an even more severe hit to all the metrics mentioned. Margins are important, but so is rate of sales. Hence the statements in the original Reuters article.
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > alternative is severely reduced purchases Doubt it. Keep a cheap upgrade option with an older and reduced BOM and then use the tariffs as an excuse to boost the top-of-the-line offering to $3k.
        alephnerd 1y ago
        I agree with that, and that is most likely what will happen. But my point is I would be very shocked if base model iPhones, lower specced Pro models, and the 16e would see a price increase beyond 15%. At the higher tier (Pro Max, and maybe even Pro) absolutely, as those were already out of the price range of the average consumer.
        JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > would be very shocked if base model iPhones, lower specced Pro models, and the 16e would see a price increase beyond 15% I’ll also be shocked if they take much margin hit there. All of the iPhone’s competitors are also getting tariffed, after all. And the tariffs don’t bridge the labour-cost difference, so it’s not like launching domestic production would make sense even if you could trust that these policies will stick.
      - petre 1y ago
        That's why Buffet sold his Apple stock: he saw this coming. Now he can buy it at a discount.
      - wg0 1y ago
        Apple consumers aren't price sensitive. If they were, they wouldn't buy Apple.

rsynnott 1y ago

I mean, if the Trump tariffs hold up, I assume the US will have to get a lot stricter on customs; you’d absolutely expect smuggling on a massive scale otherwise.

ttyprintk 1y ago
There are already Trump NFT tokens, those could serve as tariff stamps whenever a phone crosses jurisdictions or during spot checks.

Symbiote 1y ago

If the US increases customs checks, and if the person is caught, that risks seizure of the phone and a fine starting at $300.

afinlayson 1y ago
“If” is doing a lot of work there. Do you think they’ll slow down airports and port of entries to check everyone’s personal phone? Maybe if you buy 3+ to sell. But there’s congressmen who fly with guns on their carryon. Let’s tackle serious threats first.
- bolognafairy 1y ago
  > Let’s tackle serious threats first. What’s your actual point or argument here? You seem to start off arguing that it won’t happen, and you finish by arguing that you don’t think that it should happen, i.e. if you had things your way, it’d be different. Which is it? They aren’t the same thing.
Tadpole9181 1y ago
You think customs will check if you're using the same phone that you left with? What, will there be a national registry?
- Symbiote 1y ago
  Someone carrying a new phone in the original box would need to prove they purchased it in the USA. Discard the box in Canada and it's a lot less suspicious. Customs are unlikely to find the phone unless they have some other reason to search, or unless it's in checked baggage and there are several. Some countries do routinely scan all incoming hand luggage, but it's so long since I visited the USA I don't remember if they do. In some countries visitors declare what they're bringing, so they don't pay tax on that so long as they take it with them when they leave.