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I went to the trouble of finding monthly egg production totals for the US based on "NASS quick stats." https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-3

I went to the trouble of finding monthly egg production totals for the US based on "NASS quick stats." https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-... Hopefully yall can make heads or tails of the data. The querying tool is also linked at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC9E572FE8B5 https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/#80AF9DAE-99AE-31D0-8F1C-EC...

ryao 2y ago
That data means that reversing the rule that prevented meat chicken eggs from being sold will have a negligible impact on the crisis: https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda-015800118.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda... It also means this is not going to be a huge impact either: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15000-tonnes-eggs-us-amid-bird-flu-disruptions-2025-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15... That import is 240,000,000 eggs if my math is right. If it is spread over a few months we will barely notice it. If it were achieved in a single month, it might be more noticeable. I am reasoning mostly based on significant figures. I did not compare historical lows to production figures to try to get an idea of what actual demand is and I assume there is a bit of a smoothing effect that allows a surplus and shortfall in adjacent months to cancel.
araes 2y ago
Here's a chart of the egg production from the data you found (Jan 2013 to Jan 2025). [1] Added 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order curve fits to give an idea of the general trends in production. [1] https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png
- akutlay 2y ago
  This seems to align with the article. The article states 3 to 5 percent decline after 2021. I see about the same in this graph.

ryao 2y ago

That data means that reversing the rule that prevented meat chicken eggs from being sold will have a negligible impact on the crisis: https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda-015800118.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/national-chicken-council-asks-fda... It also means this is not going to be a huge impact either: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15000-tonnes-eggs-us-amid-bird-flu-disruptions-2025-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-export-15... That import is 240,000,000 eggs if my math is right. If it is spread over a few months we will barely notice it. If it were achieved in a single month, it might be more noticeable. I am reasoning mostly based on significant figures. I did not compare historical lows to production figures to try to get an idea of what actual demand is and I assume there is a bit of a smoothing effect that allows a surplus and shortfall in adjacent months to cancel.

araes 2y ago

Here's a chart of the egg production from the data you found (Jan 2013 to Jan 2025). [1] Added 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order curve fits to give an idea of the general trends in production. [1] https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png https://i.imgur.com/OikRTHL.png

akutlay 2y ago
This seems to align with the article. The article states 3 to 5 percent decline after 2021. I see about the same in this graph.