i would argue our built in heuristics for probability are pretty bad, which is why the monty hall problem is so hard for most people to grasp (even though it is

i would argue our built in heuristics for probability are pretty bad, which is why the monty hall problem is so hard for most people to grasp (even though it is a relatively straight forward application of probability). probabilistic thinking comes much less naturally to the human mind than deterministic thinking.