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https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/wpro---documents/emergency/surveillance/avian-influenza/ai_20241025.pdf https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-sou

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/wpro---documents/emergency/surveillance/avian-influenza/ai_20241025.pdf https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/wpro---documen... > From 1 January 2003 to 27 September 2024, a total of 261 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus have been reported from five countries within the Western Pacific Region (Table 1). Of these cases, 142 were fatal, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 54% > Globally, from 1 January 2003 to 27 September 2024, 904 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus were reported from 24 countries. Of these 904 cases, 464 were fatal (CFR of 51%) Anecdotally, a teenager in Canada was recently infected with the strain being carried by birds. She lived, but after being in the hospital for a month, and an extended period of time on ECMO. Who knows where her quality of life is at the moment. That level of care would not be available to many people if the rate of infection were to rise.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
Thank you. That said, CFR’s denominator is those who show up to a hospital in bad enough shape to be tested for H5N1. All we can conclude is this appears more deadly than the flu. That’s concerning, but not what I’d consider “very deadly.”
- PierceJoy 2y ago
  I think the available evidence supports calling it very deadly to humans. As you said though, it's possible and even likely the CFR is overestimating. However I doubt you would see a 50% CFR equate to something low enough that wouldn't effectively be a disaster if human to human transmission began, and at a rate similar to the flu or covid. Let's pray that never happens or that we have an effective vaccine by that time.
  - hedora 2y ago
    Technically speaking, it cannot be more deadly than the flu, since it is the flu. There’s some evidence of rapidly expanding asymptomatic human -> human spread of it. Hopefully that strain acts as an effective vaccine against the one(s) responsible for the > 50% CFR.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > it cannot be more deadly than the flu, since it is the flu I’d say technically it’s not the flu. The flu is influenza A or B.
- Izkata 2y ago
  There was a post just a day or two ago about the surprising finding of people with antibodies who never got sick. Hopefully they'll chase that down and we'll get a more correct denominator soon.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

Thank you. That said, CFR’s denominator is those who show up to a hospital in bad enough shape to be tested for H5N1. All we can conclude is this appears more deadly than the flu. That’s concerning, but not what I’d consider “very deadly.”

PierceJoy 2y ago
I think the available evidence supports calling it very deadly to humans. As you said though, it's possible and even likely the CFR is overestimating. However I doubt you would see a 50% CFR equate to something low enough that wouldn't effectively be a disaster if human to human transmission began, and at a rate similar to the flu or covid. Let's pray that never happens or that we have an effective vaccine by that time.
- hedora 2y ago
  Technically speaking, it cannot be more deadly than the flu, since it is the flu. There’s some evidence of rapidly expanding asymptomatic human -> human spread of it. Hopefully that strain acts as an effective vaccine against the one(s) responsible for the > 50% CFR.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > it cannot be more deadly than the flu, since it is the flu I’d say technically it’s not the flu. The flu is influenza A or B.
Izkata 2y ago
There was a post just a day or two ago about the surprising finding of people with antibodies who never got sick. Hopefully they'll chase that down and we'll get a more correct denominator soon.