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Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight l

Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight likely aren't routed through USPS at all unless it's the last leg of a consolidated shipment that's broken apart once it reaches the US. Those would be using some other carrier to get them from China to the US and then USPS only inside the US. USPS all the way from China is slow. Paying ~$30 for express shipping through DHL (plus whatever the new tariffs end up being) will still get you those parts in 3-5 days to most major shipping hubs in the US, your suppliers will just need to start filing the export paperwork correctly. These changes will likely have bigger impacts on cheap off the shelf parts from e-commerce places like Temu or AliExpress, who were previously taking advantage of both the de minimis rule and inequal international rates through USPS. Your Chinese suppliers can still ship by any of the normal commercial express shipping carriers as long as they understand how to file export paperwork or have an agent who can do it for them. Previously this usually added 1-2 days to the transit time over shipping undeclared "samples". Last year DHL moved to a paperless system and that extra 1-2 days delay is probably going away anyway. They may have even done it because they saw this coming. People have been grumbling about the de-minimis stuff for a while now.

boxed 2y ago
> Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. That probably will work for like a week, considering how fast and reckless the administration moves.
relistan 2y ago
I’d deem it extremely unlikely that US customs processing or the express carriers will be able to handle that overflow in anything like a reasonable timeframe.
- catherd 2y ago
  Could be. The carriers do already have practice ramping up and down for Christmas and Chinese New Year so it seems plausible they could absorb significant extra volume in whatever time it would take to negotiate the leases on the extra flights they use during those times. For that matter customs processing also has experience managing the same surges. I'd believe we might have some sort of own-goal planned for customs that could hang things up.
  - relistan 2y ago
    Yes, they do. But my understanding is that we’re talking about almost the entire US-bound volume from China of all of Aliexpress, Temu, eBay, Amazon, and all the other retailers shipping from China. USPS carries a massive amount of load there. And almost none of that was dutied in customs because of the high de minimis value in the US.
  - mrbigbob 2y ago
    you do know how they "ramp up" right? All the big ones hire thousands of temp holiday workers then let them go shortly after. do you think they are going to hire thousands of full time workers for these roles. most of them since the pandemic have enjoyed record profit from already increasing shipping rates. this would be a perfect excuse for them to do it more Nothing more American than the government attempting to kill competition so multi billion dollar corporations can get richer
hnfong 2y ago
apparently DHL is not accepting parcels from Hong Kong to US: https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/226755/DHL-stops-accepting-individual-shipments-to-US https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/22675... not sure about other carriers but that doesn’t sound good
dwaite 2y ago
This USPS announcement is most likely a reaction to just how far backlogged US customs is about to get. DHL won't save you.
nottorp 2y ago
> Paying ~$30 for express shipping through DHL (plus whatever the new tariffs end up being) will still get you those parts in 3-5 days to most major shipping hubs in the US, your suppliers will just need to start filing the export paperwork correctly. In my european experience, DHL is anything but fast when customs are involved. And I doubt they have the manpower to handle it for the new US rules. > These changes will likely have bigger impacts on cheap off the shelf parts from e-commerce places like Temu or AliExpress, who were previously taking advantage of both the de minimis rule and inequal international rates through USPS. Again in my european experience, the likes of Temu have solved the problem. You just order and a courier shows up with the taxes already handled. You paid Temu for them when you ordered and they paid the taxes for you at the point of entry to the EU. Unfortunately they probably don't have a similar setup in the US, but they're likely to solve it much faster than DHL. And of course prices will increase. Will that make them less competitive? Time will tell.
- catherd 2y ago
  DHL B2C shipments to the EU are generally held in customs until the duty is paid, which makes it slow but ensures DHL isn't left holding the bag when people decide they don't want to pay unexpected import duties. That's (historically) not the case for US B2B shipments. For those, DHL pays the duty as the shipment goes through customs and then sends an invoice after the parcel is delivered.
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    DHL doesn't accept packages anymore (or temporarily, hopefully) either https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/226755/DHL-stops-accepting-individual-shipments-to-US https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/22675...
    - nottorp 2y ago
      Understandable, they have to reevaluate the effort and probably adjust pricing. Upwards. > DHL B2C shipments to the EU are generally held in customs until the duty is paid, which makes it slow but ensures DHL isn't left holding the bag when people decide they don't want to pay unexpected import duties. Nothing is unexpected with DHL considering the amount of paperwork they want you to fill each time :) Even if you check "retain my data for next time and don't send me this form again". They indeed send me a payment link and i pay for customs online before the package starts moving. I don't do Asia->EU shipments but I get prototypes maybe 2-3 times per year from the US. We gave up on DHL and are using UPS now... they want 800% less forms, cost much less and take about the same time to deliver.
amarcheschi 2y ago
DHL hk announced they stopped shipping to us, except for letters
486sx33 2y ago
I was just going to say … uhh DHL ? Prototyping through the regular mail or even air mail is a little crazy it’s worked at all for you.
1oooqooq 2y ago
tipical liberal thinking. why on earth do you assume your favourite corporation will get in legal trouble to get you your package? if anything they will be slower because they will be fined and jailed for any mistakes. while the usps only gets a slap on the wrist.

boxed 2y ago

> Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. That probably will work for like a week, considering how fast and reckless the administration moves.

relistan 2y ago

I’d deem it extremely unlikely that US customs processing or the express carriers will be able to handle that overflow in anything like a reasonable timeframe.

catherd 2y ago
Could be. The carriers do already have practice ramping up and down for Christmas and Chinese New Year so it seems plausible they could absorb significant extra volume in whatever time it would take to negotiate the leases on the extra flights they use during those times. For that matter customs processing also has experience managing the same surges. I'd believe we might have some sort of own-goal planned for customs that could hang things up.
- relistan 2y ago
  Yes, they do. But my understanding is that we’re talking about almost the entire US-bound volume from China of all of Aliexpress, Temu, eBay, Amazon, and all the other retailers shipping from China. USPS carries a massive amount of load there. And almost none of that was dutied in customs because of the high de minimis value in the US.
- mrbigbob 2y ago
  you do know how they "ramp up" right? All the big ones hire thousands of temp holiday workers then let them go shortly after. do you think they are going to hire thousands of full time workers for these roles. most of them since the pandemic have enjoyed record profit from already increasing shipping rates. this would be a perfect excuse for them to do it more Nothing more American than the government attempting to kill competition so multi billion dollar corporations can get richer

hnfong 2y ago

apparently DHL is not accepting parcels from Hong Kong to US: https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/226755/DHL-stops-accepting-individual-shipments-to-US https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/22675... not sure about other carriers but that doesn’t sound good

dwaite 2y ago

This USPS announcement is most likely a reaction to just how far backlogged US customs is about to get. DHL won't save you.

nottorp 2y ago

> Paying ~$30 for express shipping through DHL (plus whatever the new tariffs end up being) will still get you those parts in 3-5 days to most major shipping hubs in the US, your suppliers will just need to start filing the export paperwork correctly. In my european experience, DHL is anything but fast when customs are involved. And I doubt they have the manpower to handle it for the new US rules. > These changes will likely have bigger impacts on cheap off the shelf parts from e-commerce places like Temu or AliExpress, who were previously taking advantage of both the de minimis rule and inequal international rates through USPS. Again in my european experience, the likes of Temu have solved the problem. You just order and a courier shows up with the taxes already handled. You paid Temu for them when you ordered and they paid the taxes for you at the point of entry to the EU. Unfortunately they probably don't have a similar setup in the US, but they're likely to solve it much faster than DHL. And of course prices will increase. Will that make them less competitive? Time will tell.

catherd 2y ago
DHL B2C shipments to the EU are generally held in customs until the duty is paid, which makes it slow but ensures DHL isn't left holding the bag when people decide they don't want to pay unexpected import duties. That's (historically) not the case for US B2B shipments. For those, DHL pays the duty as the shipment goes through customs and then sends an invoice after the parcel is delivered.
- throwaway290 2y ago
  DHL doesn't accept packages anymore (or temporarily, hopefully) either https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/226755/DHL-stops-accepting-individual-shipments-to-US https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/22675...
  - nottorp 2y ago
    Understandable, they have to reevaluate the effort and probably adjust pricing. Upwards. > DHL B2C shipments to the EU are generally held in customs until the duty is paid, which makes it slow but ensures DHL isn't left holding the bag when people decide they don't want to pay unexpected import duties. Nothing is unexpected with DHL considering the amount of paperwork they want you to fill each time :) Even if you check "retain my data for next time and don't send me this form again". They indeed send me a payment link and i pay for customs online before the package starts moving. I don't do Asia->EU shipments but I get prototypes maybe 2-3 times per year from the US. We gave up on DHL and are using UPS now... they want 800% less forms, cost much less and take about the same time to deliver.

amarcheschi 2y ago

DHL hk announced they stopped shipping to us, except for letters

486sx33 2y ago

I was just going to say … uhh DHL ? Prototyping through the regular mail or even air mail is a little crazy it’s worked at all for you.

1oooqooq 2y ago

tipical liberal thinking. why on earth do you assume your favourite corporation will get in legal trouble to get you your package? if anything they will be slower because they will be fined and jailed for any mistakes. while the usps only gets a slap on the wrist.