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China's territorial claims over Taiwan starts from 1949 since the civil war ends. [1] The semiconductor doesn't play significant factor here. It only becomes h

by noxs 2y ago

China's territorial claims over Taiwan starts from 1949 since the civil war ends. [1] The semiconductor doesn't play significant factor here. It only becomes hot topics in past few years because of TSMC's lead on its process, but really doesn't have any direct relationships. In other words, current situation is a result of U.S. "Asia-Pacific Rebalance" strategy and military deployment over the first island chain [2] that China wanted the island regardless of TSMC. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain

vl 2y ago
Since we just entered AGI arms-race, semiconductor industry has direct relation. I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years.
- suraci 2y ago
  there's no AGI arms-race in china > He stressed that China will not blindly follow trends or engage in unrestrained international competition. With a robust governance and regulatory system in place, China is confident in its ability to manage and utilize AI technology effectively https://www.geopolitechs.org/p/chinas-vice-premier-ding-xuexiang https://www.geopolitechs.org/p/chinas-vice-premier-ding-xuex... IIRC, this speech was given just after Stargate announced
- bgnn 2y ago
  That's definitely reading the situation totally wrong. This so called arms race is only in western minds. It would be stupid to not think about this possibility and its consequences of course but this is the most illogical option by China. The best option would be to advance their own semiconductor tech beyond TSMC and make it irrelevant, which so far is the course of action they are taking (alas only because they are forced by US). Expanding on why capturing Taiwan is stupid: TSMC already has fabs and people with knowhow outside Taiwan. The fab assets are not as strategicly valuable as their knowhow. Plus, even if you acquire the knowhow, there's the supply chain: ASML, others, ASML's supply chain. I think US might force ASML and TSMC to move to US in the coming years even stronger but more than that this arms race isn't getting hot.
  - 4gotunameagain 2y ago
    There's no way the EU will allow US to force ASML to move to the US, especially given the burning of the bridges of decades of diplomacy by the incumbent president. If the trade war continues and escalates, which form our current perspective it looks like it will, the EU will not lose one of its greatest assets in that space. The idea of Trump that the US is powerful enough to strong arm everyone to his will is mistaken, an alienated US without its allies will suffer, as will the rest of the world..
    - soco 2y ago
      But fixing that will be a job for the next CEO, I mean next president.
  - verdverm 2y ago
    The CCP doesn't want Taiwan for the chips, they want it because having a successful democracy of ethnic Chinese off the shore means there are viable alternatives to communist rule, by and for Chinese people.
    - WiSaGaN 2y ago
      What if I told you most Chinese people really are more eager than the "CCP" to take over Taiwan?
      - willvarfar 2y ago
        In the same way that Russians want to "take over" Ukraine or Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands or Americans want to "take over" Greenland? Territorial expansion is always popular with the masses before the shooting starts. It is more nationalistic than political; in fact, many unpopular politicians start wars in order to get a sense of national unity and tamp down unrest at home.
        suraci 2y ago
        why you mixed [Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands] between [Russians want to "take over" Ukraine] and [Americans want to "take over" Greenland] is it because of nationalism?
- tester756 2y ago
  >I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years. This is really bullshit 1) Those fabs would get damaged just due to war 2) Those fabs could be destroyed intentionally by Taiwan (or anyone else like US) either via missile or from inside 2.1) Equipment in those fabs can be remotely disabled 3) Those fabs need very skilled people to operate 4) Those fabs need very very skilled people to advance, move forward, if not, then they will quickly get behind 5) Those fabs are dependent on western supply chains like ASML machines 6) Those fabs are dependent on western customers Earthquake destroying TSMC fabs is more likely than China taking over them and using them as nothing happened
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
willvarfar 2y ago
Yes China wants Taiwan. Taiwan has been touting it's "Silicon Shield" defence for years and trying to tie China's self-interest with leaving Taiwan alone for now. But the Silicon Shield is tumbling. On the one side the US (the carrots of the CHIPS act under Biden, the stick of sanctions on Taiwan under Trump) is trying get sovereign control of chip production. And on the other side China is ramping up getting sovereign control of it's own top-end production. If both stay on course then China will have one less big reason not to invade, and the US will have one big reason less to defend. Of course if China wins the 'race' then it could be to it's advantage to have a rocket exchange or invasion with Taiwan to choke of the West's supply of chips before the West has brought chip production home?
- noxs 2y ago
  I don't really think it will choke the supply, but only reduce in capacity in short term, for example TSMC Arizona[1] took 4 years to be in produciton. Intel's process is still acceptable and better than China. Also semiconductor is very complicated manufacturing process not only invovles Taiwan but vendors all over the world, like the light source of EUV is provided by Cymer based in U.S. I don't think China taking over Taiwan would mean they can transfer whatever is there into something productive in any short time as because of supply chain problem. Note that many SMIC's (basically China's TSMC) leadership are actually from TSMC already[2]. [1]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

by noxs 2y ago

vl 2y ago

Since we just entered AGI arms-race, semiconductor industry has direct relation. I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years.

suraci 2y ago
there's no AGI arms-race in china > He stressed that China will not blindly follow trends or engage in unrestrained international competition. With a robust governance and regulatory system in place, China is confident in its ability to manage and utilize AI technology effectively https://www.geopolitechs.org/p/chinas-vice-premier-ding-xuexiang https://www.geopolitechs.org/p/chinas-vice-premier-ding-xuex... IIRC, this speech was given just after Stargate announced
bgnn 2y ago
That's definitely reading the situation totally wrong. This so called arms race is only in western minds. It would be stupid to not think about this possibility and its consequences of course but this is the most illogical option by China. The best option would be to advance their own semiconductor tech beyond TSMC and make it irrelevant, which so far is the course of action they are taking (alas only because they are forced by US). Expanding on why capturing Taiwan is stupid: TSMC already has fabs and people with knowhow outside Taiwan. The fab assets are not as strategicly valuable as their knowhow. Plus, even if you acquire the knowhow, there's the supply chain: ASML, others, ASML's supply chain. I think US might force ASML and TSMC to move to US in the coming years even stronger but more than that this arms race isn't getting hot.
- 4gotunameagain 2y ago
  There's no way the EU will allow US to force ASML to move to the US, especially given the burning of the bridges of decades of diplomacy by the incumbent president. If the trade war continues and escalates, which form our current perspective it looks like it will, the EU will not lose one of its greatest assets in that space. The idea of Trump that the US is powerful enough to strong arm everyone to his will is mistaken, an alienated US without its allies will suffer, as will the rest of the world..
  - soco 2y ago
    But fixing that will be a job for the next CEO, I mean next president.
- verdverm 2y ago
  The CCP doesn't want Taiwan for the chips, they want it because having a successful democracy of ethnic Chinese off the shore means there are viable alternatives to communist rule, by and for Chinese people.
  - WiSaGaN 2y ago
    What if I told you most Chinese people really are more eager than the "CCP" to take over Taiwan?
    - willvarfar 2y ago
      In the same way that Russians want to "take over" Ukraine or Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands or Americans want to "take over" Greenland? Territorial expansion is always popular with the masses before the shooting starts. It is more nationalistic than political; in fact, many unpopular politicians start wars in order to get a sense of national unity and tamp down unrest at home.
      - suraci 2y ago
        why you mixed [Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands] between [Russians want to "take over" Ukraine] and [Americans want to "take over" Greenland] is it because of nationalism?
tester756 2y ago
>I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years. This is really bullshit 1) Those fabs would get damaged just due to war 2) Those fabs could be destroyed intentionally by Taiwan (or anyone else like US) either via missile or from inside 2.1) Equipment in those fabs can be remotely disabled 3) Those fabs need very skilled people to operate 4) Those fabs need very very skilled people to advance, move forward, if not, then they will quickly get behind 5) Those fabs are dependent on western supply chains like ASML machines 6) Those fabs are dependent on western customers Earthquake destroying TSMC fabs is more likely than China taking over them and using them as nothing happened

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

willvarfar 2y ago

Yes China wants Taiwan. Taiwan has been touting it's "Silicon Shield" defence for years and trying to tie China's self-interest with leaving Taiwan alone for now. But the Silicon Shield is tumbling. On the one side the US (the carrots of the CHIPS act under Biden, the stick of sanctions on Taiwan under Trump) is trying get sovereign control of chip production. And on the other side China is ramping up getting sovereign control of it's own top-end production. If both stay on course then China will have one less big reason not to invade, and the US will have one big reason less to defend. Of course if China wins the 'race' then it could be to it's advantage to have a rocket exchange or invasion with Taiwan to choke of the West's supply of chips before the West has brought chip production home?

noxs 2y ago
I don't really think it will choke the supply, but only reduce in capacity in short term, for example TSMC Arizona[1] took 4 years to be in produciton. Intel's process is still acceptable and better than China. Also semiconductor is very complicated manufacturing process not only invovles Taiwan but vendors all over the world, like the light source of EUV is provided by Cymer based in U.S. I don't think China taking over Taiwan would mean they can transfer whatever is there into something productive in any short time as because of supply chain problem. Note that many SMIC's (basically China's TSMC) leadership are actually from TSMC already[2]. [1]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]