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This is why Satya was posting about Jevan's Paradox at 10pm last night. (https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301 https://x.com/satyanadella/status

This is why Satya was posting about Jevan's Paradox at 10pm last night. (https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301 https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301) Decreasing resource cost of intelligence should increase consumption of intelligence. That would be the bull case for Nvidia. If you believe there's a hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume, that's a bear case.

fullshark 2y ago
Hmm it also means like coal, it becomes a commodity.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  Nvidia would be selling the coal furnaces in this analogy.
  - grajaganDev 2y ago
    And there is a shortage of coal.
  - lm28469 2y ago
    Nah it's much better, Nvidia's toasters are close to 100% efficiency, coal furnaces are well bellow that
DaiPlusPlus 2y ago
> Decreasing resource cost of intelligence should increase consumption of intelligence > If you believe there's a hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume I feel like I walked-in on a LessWrong+LinkedIn convention.
- marcusestes 2y ago
  lol, that's a nasty combo
mrbungie 2y ago
It is still funny. Even if eventually we get there, Jevons Paradox is an observation, not a predictable market strategy. I wouldn't want to depend on it for making decisions. Long term bullish as always, but tech leaders are behaving in cringeworthy ways right now.
torginus 2y ago
I wonder if instead of Jevon's paradox, we will get Wirth's law (which states that software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster) applied to AI - meaning that instead of using existing battle-tested software, people will be more inclined to roll their own crappy versions, as the cost of building your own stuff is lower.
buyucu 2y ago
I'm willing to bet that Satya loves this. Microsoft's business model relies on AI getting cheaper and commoditized. Paying gazillions to OpenAI can hardly be fun for Microsoft.
coliveira 2y ago
Well, using all computing power on AI is definitely not as bad as using it on the latest crazy crypto coin that has no value for society. But the problem for NVDA is that they charge too much for it. I'm pretty sure that other companies, maybe the Chinese, will commoditize GPUs is not so distant future.
lm28469 2y ago
> hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume We live in such weird times, what the fuck does that even mean

fullshark 2y ago

Hmm it also means like coal, it becomes a commodity.

UltraSane 2y ago
Nvidia would be selling the coal furnaces in this analogy.
- grajaganDev 2y ago
  And there is a shortage of coal.
- lm28469 2y ago
  Nah it's much better, Nvidia's toasters are close to 100% efficiency, coal furnaces are well bellow that

DaiPlusPlus 2y ago

> Decreasing resource cost of intelligence should increase consumption of intelligence > If you believe there's a hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume I feel like I walked-in on a LessWrong+LinkedIn convention.

marcusestes 2y ago
lol, that's a nasty combo

mrbungie 2y ago

It is still funny. Even if eventually we get there, Jevons Paradox is an observation, not a predictable market strategy. I wouldn't want to depend on it for making decisions. Long term bullish as always, but tech leaders are behaving in cringeworthy ways right now.

torginus 2y ago

I wonder if instead of Jevon's paradox, we will get Wirth's law (which states that software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster) applied to AI - meaning that instead of using existing battle-tested software, people will be more inclined to roll their own crappy versions, as the cost of building your own stuff is lower.

buyucu 2y ago

I'm willing to bet that Satya loves this. Microsoft's business model relies on AI getting cheaper and commoditized. Paying gazillions to OpenAI can hardly be fun for Microsoft.

coliveira 2y ago

Well, using all computing power on AI is definitely not as bad as using it on the latest crazy crypto coin that has no value for society. But the problem for NVDA is that they charge too much for it. I'm pretty sure that other companies, maybe the Chinese, will commoditize GPUs is not so distant future.

lm28469 2y ago

> hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume We live in such weird times, what the fuck does that even mean