5 ms·

There are similar statements from other people in the computing field around that time https://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/predictive-text-darwins-ibm-com

There are similar statements from other people in the computing field around that time https://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/predictive-text-darwins-ibm-computers.html https://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/predictive-text-dar... Sir Charles Darwin (grandson of the naturalist) who was head of the UK’s computer research centre, the NPL (National Physical Laboratory) said in 1946: “it is very possible that … one machine would suffice to solve all the problems that are demanded of it from the whole country” Douglas Hartree, Mathematician and early UK computer pioneer said in 1950: "We have a computer here in Cambridge, one in Manchester and one at the [NPL]. I suppose there ought to be one in Scotland, but that's about all." This 1969 talk by Lord Bowden about the 1950s explains the thinking behind that statement: https://www.chilton-computing.org.uk/acl/literature/reports/p014.htm https://www.chilton-computing.org.uk/acl/literature/reports/... I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analysers in England and had more experience in using these very specialised computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built - one in Cambridge, one in Teddington and one in Manchester. Noone else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them. He added that machines were exceedingly difficult to use, and could not be trusted to anyone who was not a professional mathematician, and he advised Ferranti to get out of the business and abandon the idea of selling any more. It is amazing how completely wrong a great man can be.

rvense 2y ago
It's easy to laugh at quotes like this, but they really had a different understanding of the word computer than we do. These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use and didn't really do much except calculate. It's fairer to say that they were misjudging what computers would become. I'm not sure I can say that I would have been able to look at an early 1950's computer and imagine a 1960's DEC or IBM machine under every bank, or whatever, much less desktop publishing or Defender of the Crown...
- codeulike 2y ago
  Oh yes definitely. But its fascinating because its looking back at the dawn of a completely new thing in the world, and how hard it was for people to see where it was going to go. Interestingly if you look back at Alan Turing's writing around that time, he seemed to have a much better grasp of what a _big_deal_ this was all going to be. It would be amazing to go and fetch Turing with a time machine and bring him to our time. Show him an iPhone, his face on the UK £50 note, and Wikipedia's list of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_openly_LGBT_heads_of_state_and_government https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_openly_LGBT_heads_of_s...
- philipwhiuk 2y ago
  > It's easy to laugh at quotes like this, but they really had a different understanding of the word computer than we do. These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use and didn't really do much except calculate. It's fairer to say that they were misjudging what computers would become. Or were they predicting what is yet to come. "These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use" Sounds like Azure to me.

rvense 2y ago

It's easy to laugh at quotes like this, but they really had a different understanding of the word computer than we do. These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use and didn't really do much except calculate. It's fairer to say that they were misjudging what computers would become. I'm not sure I can say that I would have been able to look at an early 1950's computer and imagine a 1960's DEC or IBM machine under every bank, or whatever, much less desktop publishing or Defender of the Crown...

codeulike 2y ago
Oh yes definitely. But its fascinating because its looking back at the dawn of a completely new thing in the world, and how hard it was for people to see where it was going to go. Interestingly if you look back at Alan Turing's writing around that time, he seemed to have a much better grasp of what a _big_deal_ this was all going to be. It would be amazing to go and fetch Turing with a time machine and bring him to our time. Show him an iPhone, his face on the UK £50 note, and Wikipedia's list of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_openly_LGBT_heads_of_state_and_government https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_openly_LGBT_heads_of_s...
philipwhiuk 2y ago
> It's easy to laugh at quotes like this, but they really had a different understanding of the word computer than we do. These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use and didn't really do much except calculate. It's fairer to say that they were misjudging what computers would become. Or were they predicting what is yet to come. "These machines were in fact huge and required specialists to use" Sounds like Azure to me.