5 ms·

The IAF did not fly over Iranian airspace, they launched ballistic missiles from Iraq.

by Ponet1945 2y ago

tptacek 2y ago
I'm reading conflicting reports, but let's stipulate that; I don't think it makes any difference to the point I'm making. The better, clearer example is Lebanon, which hosts the crown jewel of the IRGC's proxy forces, and which doesn't have even a pretense of modern anti-aircraft defense. What would the point be? These are territories and militaries without meaningful air forces; they have already defaulted away air superiority. Their strategy is for that not to matter.
aryonoco 2y ago
According to BBC Persian (quoting Israeli sources) and many Israeli media , the IAF flew "hundreds" of sorties over Iranian airspace on that eventful night in October. The reporting is that they were F35s though, not F15. Iran's air defence system is based on the older Russian S300, which is incapable of detecting them. Of course it wasn't that long ago that Iran was flying F14s and had complete air superiority over its neighbours. How the times have changed.
- tptacek 2y ago
  I've seen credible reporting of F-35's, F-15's, and F-16's, all of which are platforms the IAF operates.
  - aryonoco 2y ago
    Very possible. We also now know that the Israelis had informed the Iranians just before the attack through diplomatic channels of the impending attack, and that it would only contain specific military objectives. Is the S300 just that useless? Possible. Did the Iranians decide to not respond and to "take one on the chin" in order to avoid a cycle of ever increasing conflict? Maybe. Had espionage already disabled Iran's air defence system? Also possible. We probably won't know for another 100 years.
    - tptacek 2y ago
      Yeah, I don't think the strike on Iran shed as much light on this question as I'd originally thought it might, but it still seems clearly to be the case that air defense is not a big part of the Axis of Resistance strategy. Ansar Allah fought an open war against Saudi Arabia in the mid-late 2010s, during which the Royal Saudi Air Force routinely flew over Houthi-held territory, and so far as I know they've never verifiably shot a flight down. Again, I think the most useful model here is Lebanon. Hezbollah has a desultory complement of SAM launchers, but no meaningful control over its airspace.
      - aryonoco 2y ago
        Oh yes that's just absolutely fanciful boasting by the Houthis. The Houthis were probably not far off from claiming to have shot down the Ingenuity chopper which NASA lost on Mars . In reality they can't shoot down a Cessna 172.
        tptacek 2y ago
        I think they've taken down a couple MQ-9's, at least one of which we acknowledged.

The IAF did not fly over Iranian airspace, they launched ballistic missiles from Iraq.

I'm reading conflicting reports, but let's stipulate that; I don't think it makes any difference to the point I'm making. The better, clearer example is Lebanon, which hosts the crown jewel of the IRGC's proxy forces, and which doesn't have even a pretense of modern anti-aircraft defense. What would the point be? These are territories and militaries without meaningful air forces; they have already defaulted away air superiority. Their strategy is for that not to matter.

aryonoco 2y ago

According to BBC Persian (quoting Israeli sources) and many Israeli media , the IAF flew "hundreds" of sorties over Iranian airspace on that eventful night in October. The reporting is that they were F35s though, not F15. Iran's air defence system is based on the older Russian S300, which is incapable of detecting them. Of course it wasn't that long ago that Iran was flying F14s and had complete air superiority over its neighbours. How the times have changed.

tptacek 2y ago
I've seen credible reporting of F-35's, F-15's, and F-16's, all of which are platforms the IAF operates.
- aryonoco 2y ago
  Very possible. We also now know that the Israelis had informed the Iranians just before the attack through diplomatic channels of the impending attack, and that it would only contain specific military objectives. Is the S300 just that useless? Possible. Did the Iranians decide to not respond and to "take one on the chin" in order to avoid a cycle of ever increasing conflict? Maybe. Had espionage already disabled Iran's air defence system? Also possible. We probably won't know for another 100 years.
  - tptacek 2y ago
    Yeah, I don't think the strike on Iran shed as much light on this question as I'd originally thought it might, but it still seems clearly to be the case that air defense is not a big part of the Axis of Resistance strategy. Ansar Allah fought an open war against Saudi Arabia in the mid-late 2010s, during which the Royal Saudi Air Force routinely flew over Houthi-held territory, and so far as I know they've never verifiably shot a flight down. Again, I think the most useful model here is Lebanon. Hezbollah has a desultory complement of SAM launchers, but no meaningful control over its airspace.
    - aryonoco 2y ago
      Oh yes that's just absolutely fanciful boasting by the Houthis. The Houthis were probably not far off from claiming to have shot down the Ingenuity chopper which NASA lost on Mars . In reality they can't shoot down a Cessna 172.
      - tptacek 2y ago
        I think they've taken down a couple MQ-9's, at least one of which we acknowledged.