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This was my exact thought when I hit that point in the article. How am I supposed to know the probability to make these calculations? And if I make up numbers t
by kidros 2y ago
This was my exact thought when I hit that point in the article. How am I supposed to know the probability to make these calculations? And if I make up numbers that "seem" reasonable, how is that better than buying insurance to sleep better?
- kqr 2y agoMany of these probabilities can be looked up in official statistics. Then you can adjust a tiny bit depending on whether you think you have more or fewer risk factors than the average. When I feasibility tested by asking my wife to guesstimate a couple of these she ended up very close to official statistics. The first-level trick she used is Fermi estimation. You can totally do it and it's worth practicing. There are even competitions in it open for anyone! I like the Quarterly Cup at Metaculus. The next iteration starts early January.