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Perhaps it'll be more intuitive to you if you scale the number of doors up. If there are 100 doors, only one containing a car, you pick one, the host reveals 98
by suggestion 2y ago
Perhaps it'll be more intuitive to you if you scale the number of doors up. If there are 100 doors, only one containing a car, you pick one, the host reveals 98/99 remaining doors as goats, it's obvious the correct choice is to switch. The correct answer is a mathematically provable probability. 1% chance you picked the right door, 99% chance the door was in the remaining pool, therefore 99% chance the last remaining door is the correct door.
- oneshtein 2y agoIf you will try to play this game in real life, with such logic it will be easy to trick you 100% of the time.
- suggestion 2y agoYou can write a simulation that does this (as MIT and several others have) and Monte Carlo it. You will find that the logic is 100% correct. The prize MUST be either the door you picked initially or the one you can switch to. There is a 99% chance it's not the one you picked. https://web.mit.edu/rsi/www/2013/files/MiniSamples/MontyHall/montymain.pdf https://web.mit.edu/rsi/www/2013/files/MiniSamples/MontyHall...