6 ms·

What Fueled the 'East Asian Miracle'?

25 points by aarghh 2y ago

searealist 2y ago
I'm guessing the article never once mentions a 106 average IQ.
- mnk47 2y ago
  I wish trends like the Flynn effect (rise in IQ in most of the world throughout the 20th century, including China [0], Japan and Korea [1]) had more concrete answers by now. AFAIK we still don't have any answers beyond conjectures. To me, having a better understanding of this is vital, because IQ is currently in decline in many developed countries, even when you account for immigration and demographic/race changes. Something in our environment is causing a reverse Flynn effect [2] [3], we don't know what it is, and not enough people seem to care. [0] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3834612/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3834612/ [1] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191886911001437 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01918... [2] - https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576 https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-... [3] - https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1718793115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1718793115
Khelavaster 2y ago
[dead]
jmclnx 2y ago
This starts in the 50s and and seems they argue for Land Reform. Maybe that was part of it. But I say these are far better reasons: 1. A local government friendly to the US. Gov type did not matter. 2. US Workers starting to want medical benefits, by the late 60s, hardly anyone would take a job without benefits. This includes sick time. 3. Environment Controls starting in the 60s. I think this is a big one. 4. High Wages in the US 5. Improved intercontinental flights and cheap shipping. I think in the 60s the US merchant was quickly being outsourced to cheap countries. 6. An of course corporate greed and the rush to make Wall Street happy. You just need to look at ROC in the 90s, lots of companies started moving manufacturing there because Japan and Taiwan was getting too expensive. Now I think they are slowly moving out of ROC to places it SE Asia like Vietnam.
- master_crab 2y ago
  Extrapolate and combine 1,2,3,4,6: a government friendly with a rich post industrial nation that focuses on financialization as an end unto itself. (that last trait is a bit more contentious than the former ones)
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  PRC?
  - namaria 2y ago
    ROC is Taiwan I believe.
  - jmclnx 2y ago
    Yes, I meant PRC :)
- comte7092 2y ago
  Your argument lays out a number of push factors as to why firms left the US, but there are numerous locales that are and were cheaper than the US. This article is about what cause industry to flourish in East Asia specifically. None of the bullet points you laid out are specific to East Asia.
  - miningape 2y ago
    I think that's kinda the point. It's not EA specific but general economic forces with a large difference in development.
    - comte7092 2y ago
      There’s nothing really general or abstract to what OP was stating though. Their argument is essentially “it has nothing to do with anything that East Asia did, it was essentially random that they ended up being the place where industrial development expanded to next” which doesn’t seem to be a strongly evidence based position in my view.
chubot 2y ago
From the title, and skimming over this article, I notice an irony: the analysis is "short" by Eastern standards They're only talking about the last 100-200 years. That's significant on the American time scale, but insignificant on a Chinese one. It's interesting to me that older cultures like the Chinese, Japanese, and the Maya view history as cyclical, while Americans tend to have more a narrative of "linear progress", or even "manifest destiny" (a term I heard in grade school but probably didn't really understand until being an adult) --- I think Ray Dalio's explanation is the most concise and takes into account the cyclical nature of history (and wow this video has 55 M views now) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Roughly speaking, [edited] China and India likely had most of the world GDP for more than 1000 years [1] ... you can think of it as a miracle for them to rise again, or just part of a cycle. And there are absolutely cycles in history, just ones that are longer than any "news" article tends to talk about I also think Americans are now waking up to a cyclical view. Everyone is talking about how this is the "first" generation to make less money than their parents, or the "first" to have shorter life span But it's only "first" if you don't recognize the cycles! That's understandable because of America's history, but it is a limited analysis --- [1] edit: I looked deeper into this, and I agree it's flimsy, as mentioned below. But I think the larger point still stands -- it's a only a "miracle" if you're looking at a certain time frame, and n=1
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- avmich 2y ago
  The problem with cyclical view appears as soon as one tries to review the underlying causes why this movement happens. You can have rises, prosperity, overshoots, bad habits, slowdowns and depressions coming one after another in a mostly closed system. Or you may consider a system which can be affected by externalities, those which can be so powerful as to cause opium depression or technology copying rise. It's a little like pendulum with external forces, which dictate what's the actual behavior of the pendulum is - disregarding its own internal properties.
  - 2y ago
magwa101 2y ago
[dead]

25 points by aarghh 2y ago

searealist 2y ago

I'm guessing the article never once mentions a 106 average IQ.

mnk47 2y ago
I wish trends like the Flynn effect (rise in IQ in most of the world throughout the 20th century, including China [0], Japan and Korea [1]) had more concrete answers by now. AFAIK we still don't have any answers beyond conjectures. To me, having a better understanding of this is vital, because IQ is currently in decline in many developed countries, even when you account for immigration and demographic/race changes. Something in our environment is causing a reverse Flynn effect [2] [3], we don't know what it is, and not enough people seem to care. [0] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3834612/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3834612/ [1] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191886911001437 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01918... [2] - https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576 https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-... [3] - https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1718793115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1718793115

Khelavaster 2y ago

[dead]

jmclnx 2y ago

This starts in the 50s and and seems they argue for Land Reform. Maybe that was part of it. But I say these are far better reasons: 1. A local government friendly to the US. Gov type did not matter. 2. US Workers starting to want medical benefits, by the late 60s, hardly anyone would take a job without benefits. This includes sick time. 3. Environment Controls starting in the 60s. I think this is a big one. 4. High Wages in the US 5. Improved intercontinental flights and cheap shipping. I think in the 60s the US merchant was quickly being outsourced to cheap countries. 6. An of course corporate greed and the rush to make Wall Street happy. You just need to look at ROC in the 90s, lots of companies started moving manufacturing there because Japan and Taiwan was getting too expensive. Now I think they are slowly moving out of ROC to places it SE Asia like Vietnam.

master_crab 2y ago
Extrapolate and combine 1,2,3,4,6: a government friendly with a rich post industrial nation that focuses on financialization as an end unto itself. (that last trait is a bit more contentious than the former ones)
selimthegrim 2y ago
PRC?
- namaria 2y ago
  ROC is Taiwan I believe.
- jmclnx 2y ago
  Yes, I meant PRC :)
comte7092 2y ago
Your argument lays out a number of push factors as to why firms left the US, but there are numerous locales that are and were cheaper than the US. This article is about what cause industry to flourish in East Asia specifically. None of the bullet points you laid out are specific to East Asia.
- miningape 2y ago
  I think that's kinda the point. It's not EA specific but general economic forces with a large difference in development.
  - comte7092 2y ago
    There’s nothing really general or abstract to what OP was stating though. Their argument is essentially “it has nothing to do with anything that East Asia did, it was essentially random that they ended up being the place where industrial development expanded to next” which doesn’t seem to be a strongly evidence based position in my view.

chubot 2y ago

From the title, and skimming over this article, I notice an irony: the analysis is "short" by Eastern standards They're only talking about the last 100-200 years. That's significant on the American time scale, but insignificant on a Chinese one. It's interesting to me that older cultures like the Chinese, Japanese, and the Maya view history as cyclical, while Americans tend to have more a narrative of "linear progress", or even "manifest destiny" (a term I heard in grade school but probably didn't really understand until being an adult) --- I think Ray Dalio's explanation is the most concise and takes into account the cyclical nature of history (and wow this video has 55 M views now) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Roughly speaking, [edited] China and India likely had most of the world GDP for more than 1000 years [1] ... you can think of it as a miracle for them to rise again, or just part of a cycle. And there are absolutely cycles in history, just ones that are longer than any "news" article tends to talk about I also think Americans are now waking up to a cyclical view. Everyone is talking about how this is the "first" generation to make less money than their parents, or the "first" to have shorter life span But it's only "first" if you don't recognize the cycles! That's understandable because of America's history, but it is a limited analysis --- [1] edit: I looked deeper into this, and I agree it's flimsy, as mentioned below. But I think the larger point still stands -- it's a only a "miracle" if you're looking at a certain time frame, and n=1

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
avmich 2y ago
The problem with cyclical view appears as soon as one tries to review the underlying causes why this movement happens. You can have rises, prosperity, overshoots, bad habits, slowdowns and depressions coming one after another in a mostly closed system. Or you may consider a system which can be affected by externalities, those which can be so powerful as to cause opium depression or technology copying rise. It's a little like pendulum with external forces, which dictate what's the actual behavior of the pendulum is - disregarding its own internal properties.
- 2y ago

magwa101 2y ago

[dead]