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Krugman is controversial at times, but he is a serious economist. The quote is also taken out of two important contexts. 1. It was not a serious academic predic

Krugman is controversial at times, but he is a serious economist. The quote is also taken out of two important contexts. 1. It was not a serious academic prediction but rather part of a fluff piece by the Times about future precitions. 2. The quote also exists in the context of a debate that was raging during the advent of the internet whether or not the internet would hyper charge productivity and economic growth. In hindsight, especially after the late 1990s, the truth is far closer to the fax machine rather than a new era of prosperity. The lack of visible productivity growth from a technology that has so visibly transformed our society is one of the bigger questions in economics today.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
The lack of visible productivity growth. In particular, it's not as visible as you expect in the GDP statistics. Take TV Guide, for instance. Now, if anybody watches broadcast television, they can use the internet to find out what's on when. Is that better or worse for users than having a paper TV guide? In many ways it's better. But it shows up in the GDP as a negative, because nobody's buying TV Guide any more. Or take Google. I can search for any information I want, for free. That creates immense value - immense in every sense except the GDP, where it doesn't show up at all, because it's free. Wikipedia. Linux. gcc. The Wayback Machine. Even HN. All this is available to us, whenever we want it, for whatever purpose we want, for free. There's great value to us. Just nothing that shows up on the GDP statistics, because it's all free. (Yeah, I know, RedHat sells Linux, and Wikipedia asks for donations. They aren't Microsoft selling Windows and The World Book, though. You can still use them for free, and not get sued or jailed.)
- kiba 2y ago
  Sure, there's a lot of value. There's also a lot of slops and negative value. These days I don't even use wikipedia that much even though I googled things constantly. GDP is a very gross measure of things to be sure, but also difficult to fake.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- blackhawkC17 2y ago
  These free things (Wikipedia, Linux, etc.) are sustained by a high GDP that translates to high incomes and, in turn, people willing to donate time and money for them to remain free. Let's try living in a country with a measly GDP per capita of $1,000 (Rwanda for example) and see how many free things we can get..
  - psd1 2y ago
    Alternative conjecture. People give more consistently in more pro-social societies. But those societies are poorer, with lower percentage of computer ownership and programming skills. So they give things like care and food. Trying to spin the west as the place where altruism is most prevalent seems incorrect. More data needed.
    - blackhawkC17 2y ago
      I think we're in agreement here. I never said the West inherently has more altruism. However, the West's high GDP is what enables Westerners to give more to free computing/internet-related projects offering excellent value. Without a high GDP, there won't be much to give in the first place.
      - psd1 2y ago
        Yes, I suspect I've made a distinction without a difference. You're right.
AlbertCory 2y ago
> Krugman is controversial at times Kind of like saying Lysenko was controversial at times. He's not "controversial," he's just a bloviator. His credentials as a serious economist expired long ago when he signed up with the leftist team and agreed to never challenge them again, on anything. When you have to spend many words on explaining the "context" in which someone's quotes should be viewed, you are losing.
- ninjagoo 2y ago
  > His credentials as a serious economist expired long ago when he signed up with the leftist team You might be (unpleasantly) surprised by the emphasis of the current year's nobel economics prize winners on the importance of societal institutions and the need for inclusivity to advance the wealth of nations :-)
  - AlbertCory 2y ago
    I'd be more surprised if you linked to any of Krugman's recent columns and I actually thought they were worthwhile.
- Eumenes 2y ago
  Indeed. He is more politico and less economist these days: https://www.nytimes.com/column/paul-krugman https://www.nytimes.com/column/paul-krugman
- cyberax 2y ago
  > Kind of like saying Lysenko was controversial at times. This is BS. Krugman has very specific theories that made predictions validated by practice. Remember 2008? He made a prediction that an increase in the monetary base wouldn't cause inflation. This prediction was spectacularly confirmed. He also made a case for fiscal intervention: it wouldn't cause inflation, and it would speed up the recovery. And his prediction again was confirmed. More recently: he predicted that the inflation spike was transient, due to supply chain issues rather than fundamental changes. And he's again been vindicated.
  - 2y ago

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

The lack of visible productivity growth. In particular, it's not as visible as you expect in the GDP statistics. Take TV Guide, for instance. Now, if anybody watches broadcast television, they can use the internet to find out what's on when. Is that better or worse for users than having a paper TV guide? In many ways it's better. But it shows up in the GDP as a negative, because nobody's buying TV Guide any more. Or take Google. I can search for any information I want, for free. That creates immense value - immense in every sense except the GDP, where it doesn't show up at all, because it's free. Wikipedia. Linux. gcc. The Wayback Machine. Even HN. All this is available to us, whenever we want it, for whatever purpose we want, for free. There's great value to us. Just nothing that shows up on the GDP statistics, because it's all free. (Yeah, I know, RedHat sells Linux, and Wikipedia asks for donations. They aren't Microsoft selling Windows and The World Book, though. You can still use them for free, and not get sued or jailed.)

kiba 2y ago
Sure, there's a lot of value. There's also a lot of slops and negative value. These days I don't even use wikipedia that much even though I googled things constantly. GDP is a very gross measure of things to be sure, but also difficult to fake.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
blackhawkC17 2y ago
These free things (Wikipedia, Linux, etc.) are sustained by a high GDP that translates to high incomes and, in turn, people willing to donate time and money for them to remain free. Let's try living in a country with a measly GDP per capita of $1,000 (Rwanda for example) and see how many free things we can get..
- psd1 2y ago
  Alternative conjecture. People give more consistently in more pro-social societies. But those societies are poorer, with lower percentage of computer ownership and programming skills. So they give things like care and food. Trying to spin the west as the place where altruism is most prevalent seems incorrect. More data needed.
  - blackhawkC17 2y ago
    I think we're in agreement here. I never said the West inherently has more altruism. However, the West's high GDP is what enables Westerners to give more to free computing/internet-related projects offering excellent value. Without a high GDP, there won't be much to give in the first place.
    - psd1 2y ago
      Yes, I suspect I've made a distinction without a difference. You're right.

AlbertCory 2y ago

> Krugman is controversial at times Kind of like saying Lysenko was controversial at times. He's not "controversial," he's just a bloviator. His credentials as a serious economist expired long ago when he signed up with the leftist team and agreed to never challenge them again, on anything. When you have to spend many words on explaining the "context" in which someone's quotes should be viewed, you are losing.

ninjagoo 2y ago
> His credentials as a serious economist expired long ago when he signed up with the leftist team You might be (unpleasantly) surprised by the emphasis of the current year's nobel economics prize winners on the importance of societal institutions and the need for inclusivity to advance the wealth of nations :-)
- AlbertCory 2y ago
  I'd be more surprised if you linked to any of Krugman's recent columns and I actually thought they were worthwhile.
Eumenes 2y ago
Indeed. He is more politico and less economist these days: https://www.nytimes.com/column/paul-krugman https://www.nytimes.com/column/paul-krugman
cyberax 2y ago
> Kind of like saying Lysenko was controversial at times. This is BS. Krugman has very specific theories that made predictions validated by practice. Remember 2008? He made a prediction that an increase in the monetary base wouldn't cause inflation. This prediction was spectacularly confirmed. He also made a case for fiscal intervention: it wouldn't cause inflation, and it would speed up the recovery. And his prediction again was confirmed. More recently: he predicted that the inflation spike was transient, due to supply chain issues rather than fundamental changes. And he's again been vindicated.
- 2y ago