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There's no pivot. Let's put working on a different level of abstraction aside (like reviewing outputs and guiding AI) - it's already happening to some extent a
by sk11001 2y ago
There's no pivot.
Let's put working on a different level of abstraction aside (like reviewing outputs and guiding AI) - it's already happening to some extent and developer jobs are always changing with or without AI.
If AI gets good enough to largely remove the need for software development jobs, I don't think there's a pivot, at least not at scale.
1. If AI gets good enough at SWE, it will very likely also be extremely good at any kind of knowledge work, so you can't go and be an accountant or a lawyer because they are losing their jobs at scale too.
2. An individual can go and be a plumber or an electrician but it can't be done at scale. If 40% of workers are doing knowledge work, they can't all switch to manual labor, there isn't enough demand in those fields to absorb 40% of people. (This is even if we ignore other problems like the fact that not everyone has the aptitude or ability to retrain)
3. Even if you individually are okay because you're still employed, or because you're independently wealthy, you still have a huge problem - at 30%+ levels of unemployment the economy and society as a whole begin to collapse. If you have a job, there wouldn't be enough people to pay for your services; if you have assets (stocks, property, currency) their value won't be preserved in an unstable society with high unemployment. It wouldn't be just a problem for the people who are directly affected, it would be everyone's problem.
- p1esk 2y ago30% unemployment is bad, but 100%, or even 90% should be great - the age of abundance, where robots are doing all the work, and everything is so cheap that anyone can have the basic necessities for free.