> if you have a path in the upper bunk that gets broken you are screwed Counter-factuals like this don't apply when talking about average probabilities. If you

> if you have a path in the upper bunk that gets broken you are screwed Counter-factuals like this don't apply when talking about average probabilities. If you cross over, it's an identical graph with identical probabilities. idk, to me it seems really counter-intuitive that the opposite bunk's node would be easier to get to than the current bunk's node.