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Hinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must
by randomdata 2y ago
Hinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must be doing that "strawberry" thing again? To us humans, A-l-t-m-a-n is not H-i-n-t-o-n.
- khafra 2y ago> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years. Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. For Mankind's Last Invention, I would argue that it is.
- randomdata 2y agoYou don't know because he did not say. He said 20 years, which are more than a few.