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His point is that a person telling you they have one girl would be accepted as referring to a particular child. Thus, BG and GB merge and the odds are 50% of a
by seano 18y ago
His point is that a person telling you they have one girl would be accepted as referring to a particular child. Thus, BG and GB merge and the odds are 50% of a boy and a girl.
- DougBTX 18y agoPedantically, they don't merge, you just rule out GB or BG. So, initial conditions: 1) X: G, Y: G 2) X: G, Y: B 3) X: B, Y: G 4) X: B, Y: B If you are told, "at least one is a girl," as in the posted question, you can only rule out case (4). If you are told more specifically that X is a girl, you can rule out (3) and (4), giving the 50-50 chance. Which still seems a little weird to me, that knowing which is a girl, regardless of which one you know about, changes the chances.
- seano 18y agoExactly - the difference is between "at least one is a girl" and pointing out a specific child as a girl.
- Niten 18y agoAnd this is flat out incorrect.