7 ms·
> o1's performance increase did come with a time cost. It took 70 hours on the 400 public tasks compared to only 30 minutes for GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. S
by w4 2y ago
> o1's performance increase did come with a time cost. It took 70 hours on the 400 public tasks compared to only 30 minutes for GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet.
Sheesh. We're going to need more compute.
- Davidzheng 2y agoIntelligence is something that gets monotone easier as compute increases and trivial at the large compute limit (for instance can brute force simulate a human at large enough compute). So increasing compute is the most sure way to ensure success at reaching above human level intelligence (agi)
- trehalose 2y agoHow does one "brute force simulate a human"? If compute is the limiting factor, then isn't it currently possible to brute force simulate a human, just extremely slowly?
- bufferoverflow 2y agoHuman brain has 1000 trillion synapses between 68 billion neurons. What are you going to simulate them on? And it's not like you can copy brain's connectivity exactly. Such technologies don't exist.
- zxexz 2y agoI have a computer like that, embedded in my head even! It's good for real-time simulation, but has trouble simulating the same human from even a couple weeks before. In all seriousness, it's simultaneously wondrous and terrifying to imagine the hypothetical tooling needed for such a simulation.
- soared 2y agoSomething something monkey at a typewriter writing Shakespeare
- rrrix1 2y agoGet out of my head!
- Davidzheng 2y agoThis is a more water tight proof of the same fact (so we don't have to argue about physics)
- azan_ 2y agoIt's not a proof at all.
- tomohelix 2y agoI guess technically, one can try to simulate every single atoms and their interactions with each others to get this result. However, considering how many atoms there are in a cubic foot of meat, this isn't very possible even with current compute. Even trying to solve a PDE with, I don't know, 1e7 factors, is already a hard to crack issue although technically, it is computable. Now take that to the number of atoms in a meatbag and you quickly see why it is pointless to put any effort into this "extremely slowly" way.
- trehalose 2y agoBut if we had enough compute, it'd be trivial, right? I mean, I didn't think so, but the guy I replied to seems to know so. No, in all seriousness, I realize that "extremely slowly" is an understatement. In davidzheng's defense, I assume he likely meant a higher-level simulation of a human, one designed to act indistinguishably from an atom-level simulation. I just think calling that "trivial with enough compute" is mistaking merely having the materials for having mastered them.
- black_knight 2y agoWe have no way of knowing the initial conditions for this (position etc of each fundamental particle in any brain), even if we assume that we have a good enough grasp on fundamental physics to know the rules.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- etrautmann 2y agoThis is…highly speculative and fairly ridiculous to anyone who’s attempted to do so
- Davidzheng 2y agoI'm giving a proof of a theoretical fact not saying it's feasible
- komali2 2y agoproof + fact, and theoretical, are very different words, I'm really confused by your meaning here
- logicchains 2y ago>Intelligence is something that gets monotone easier as compute increases and trivial at the large compute limit (for instance can brute force simulate a human at large enough compute) It gets monotone easier but the increase can be so slow that even using all the energy in the observable universe wouldn't make a meaningful difference, e.g. for problems in the exponential complexity class.
- dr_dshiv 2y agoNow is a good time to spend with families and do work that feels satisfying. Much change is coming.
- typon 2y agoPolar icecaps shuddering at the thought
- asimpleusecase 2y agoThat is the next major challenge. Ok you can solve a logic puzzle with a gilzillon watts now go power that same level of compute with a cheese burger, or if you are vegan a nice salad.