6 ms·

China's startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last 5 years

33 points by breerbgoat 2y ago

mensetmanusman 2y ago
The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups, so they blew up the whole system. Easier to have zero business leaders that might tip the boat with suggestions. This is ‘let it rot’ in action.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  Will be interesting to see how it plays out :) I think ad-tech has been a massive disaster for our society. I quit Instagram recently, I logged on the other day to message someone in the walled garden, I was shocked at what I saw and I couldn't believe I spent any time on it at all!
- naveen99 2y ago
  I guess if people can’t be rich with government funny money, they will just accumulate IOU’s from each other. Maybe automate the system in a decentralized ledger that avoids counterparty risk. Oh wait… Of course tiktok, byd ev’s, solar, ai models coming out of China are doing fine, so it’s not all bleak.
- musicale 2y ago
  > The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups well that's one thing we can agree on.
  - stonethrowaway 2y ago
    CCP has been doing lots of things that people have, by and far, been silently nodding to and agreeing on. This particular instance is just saying the quiet part out loud.
    - aurareturn 2y ago
      I'm a fan of banning all crypto.
- pseudosaid 2y ago
  because they are the best ad tech. ads are about modifying behavior via external stimuli. instead of advertisers trying to affect behavior, its the government leveraging a social credit system to affect behavior.
refurb 2y ago
One of the drivers of economic development is stability and predictability. Singapore understands this. Ownership rules are clear, and if under dispute, the courts are viewed as reasonable and fair. Business rules are predictable, you don't have to worry about making an investment based on assumptions that no longer hold next year. China is the opposite as of the last few years. It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere.
- gary_0 2y ago
  > It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere. Is it, though? China isn't immune from bad economic policy, but its per capita GDP growth still remains globally impressive[0]. In spite of recent difficulties they're still on an amazing trajectory. Sure, maybe their chickens are about to come home to roost and they're finally in for a reckoning. I feel like that's the wrong take, though. We've spent the last 30 years with a smirk on our face waiting for China to realize their mistake of eschewing democracy and liberal economics. Somehow they've become the second most powerful nation in the world instead. They're playing an entirely different game, over there. We underestimate them at our own peril. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_per_capita_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
  - chairmansteve 2y ago
    I saw a comment somewhere that China uses free markets for the benefit of the state, whereas the USA uses free markets for the benefit of private capital.
    - signatoremo 2y ago
      China mint the most numbers of millionaires and billionaires in the 21st century.
      - pragmomm 2y ago
        China also has 800 million people making less than $100/month. where do you think the millionaires and billionaires in China skimmed their wealth from?
abdullahkhalids 2y ago
Is there any independent confirmation of these numbers? Seem too extraordinary to be believed without extraordinary evidence.
- yen223 2y ago
  The tweet uses "number of companies founded" as a metric, which to me isn't as illustrative as something like revenue/company or similar.
  - signatoremo 2y ago
    This is about startups, which by definition means companies founded in the previous few years, with very little revenue. His metrics make perfect sense. I must say this is a real surprise. Needs to be corroborated by another source.
    - mike_hearn 2y ago
      The original source is the FT citing a company that tracks startups.
      - Prbeek 2y ago
        The owner of that company wrote that FT cited the wrong data
blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
Is there really an incentive for startups in China today compared to 4 years ago? Look what the government there has done to very rich and influential people in just the last few years. Once you have achieved your goal of building a great business, it can all be taken away from you overnight while you rot in a jail cell. Might as well take it easy and at least enjoy your life instead of losing ten prime years to a hard grind for nothing.
- Prbeek 2y ago
  Do you have a link which business was taken away from an entrepreneur?
aeternum 2y ago
Is this data actually correct? Looks China is still doing just fine on the tech side, landing a rocket, LLM model that topped coding challenges, robots that are significantly outperforming boston dynamics. Is it just that those companies were founded during the peak?
stonethrowaway 2y ago
Trap for young players: don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like. In other words, pure bullshit if you’re not in the in-crowd to pick up the jokes that TPTB are sending to each other by posting absurd things.
- southernplaces7 2y ago
  >don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like. Nonsense. Sure, there's lots of bad reporting about China in the West but generalizing as you do is as absurd as swallowing the latest from Fox News and taking it as gospel. There's also lots of astute, reasoned and well-analyzed reporting about China in the west and elsewhere. For example, about the region of the world I've been living in for nearly two decades, I see lots of excellent reporting, and much of it comes from external sources; some of the best in fact. It's possible to do this without being within a given system. What alternative sources should people use for China then? Name a few instead of lazily criticizing to feel superior.
  - stonethrowaway 2y ago
    You ever heard of that phrase “actions speak louder than words”? No? Okay, let me give you an intro then. The only two sources you can trust on this subject matter are actions of countries, and the the use of the thing between your ears. There is a political game that is played and the only thing that matters are the moves made. All of the words wasted in so-called “news” are irrelevant. That’s just entertainment for the masses devoid of reality. The things that matter are actions and inactions of countries. The straight moves, the misdirects, and the jukes along the way. Whenever you are gloating about how a country is doing something dumb, you are saying that you cannot read the hand they are about to play. Keep this in mind, and act accordingly.
    - southernplaces7 2y ago
      Your claim is absurdly, childishly reductionist. The actions of countries themselves can often be wrapped deeply in layers of obfuscation, secrecy, hidden motive and incompetence, or in many other things, and be extremely hard to even know of unless you're literally on the spot, or read at a distance for the events leading to them and their ramifications. Analysis of other's texts and selective reading from well curated sources is absolutely useful and important in knowing what's going on in a place or what might come. Many historical examples of this abound and what you say is literally just nonsense, as if it were something invented by a dramatic teenager who hasn't actually read anything of history outside a Robert Ludlum novel (if that). Many excellent analyses by informed outsiders with insider sources or by people who just used good investigative procedure, existed of Nazi Germany, the USSR under the bolsheviks, the USSR pre-collapse, and other countries, that if they had been read by people with a discerning eye, could have yielded powerful information about what these countries would eventually do and how. News, as in general run of the mill reporting, is often just blather, but in between it, or distilled from it and from other sources, much important information can be gleaned.
rurban 2y ago
> VCs in China now spend most of their time suing the startups they invested in to get their money back. > Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans. > Hard to imagine why anyone would start a company under these conditions. Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there. Well done
- RestlessMind 2y ago
  > Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans. "Limited Liability" coupled with Venture capital, which was willing to take risky bets, was one of the greatest innovations unshackling a lot of entrepreneurship. > Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there. Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity.
  - rurban 2y ago
    > Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity. Exactly. Limited liability is a big worry. Crooks everywhere

33 points by breerbgoat 2y ago

The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups, so they blew up the whole system. Easier to have zero business leaders that might tip the boat with suggestions. This is ‘let it rot’ in action.

bamboozled 2y ago
Will be interesting to see how it plays out :) I think ad-tech has been a massive disaster for our society. I quit Instagram recently, I logged on the other day to message someone in the walled garden, I was shocked at what I saw and I couldn't believe I spent any time on it at all!
naveen99 2y ago
I guess if people can’t be rich with government funny money, they will just accumulate IOU’s from each other. Maybe automate the system in a decentralized ledger that avoids counterparty risk. Oh wait… Of course tiktok, byd ev’s, solar, ai models coming out of China are doing fine, so it’s not all bleak.
musicale 2y ago
> The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups well that's one thing we can agree on.
- stonethrowaway 2y ago
  CCP has been doing lots of things that people have, by and far, been silently nodding to and agreeing on. This particular instance is just saying the quiet part out loud.
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    I'm a fan of banning all crypto.
pseudosaid 2y ago
because they are the best ad tech. ads are about modifying behavior via external stimuli. instead of advertisers trying to affect behavior, its the government leveraging a social credit system to affect behavior.

refurb 2y ago

One of the drivers of economic development is stability and predictability. Singapore understands this. Ownership rules are clear, and if under dispute, the courts are viewed as reasonable and fair. Business rules are predictable, you don't have to worry about making an investment based on assumptions that no longer hold next year. China is the opposite as of the last few years. It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere.

gary_0 2y ago
> It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere. Is it, though? China isn't immune from bad economic policy, but its per capita GDP growth still remains globally impressive[0]. In spite of recent difficulties they're still on an amazing trajectory. Sure, maybe their chickens are about to come home to roost and they're finally in for a reckoning. I feel like that's the wrong take, though. We've spent the last 30 years with a smirk on our face waiting for China to realize their mistake of eschewing democracy and liberal economics. Somehow they've become the second most powerful nation in the world instead. They're playing an entirely different game, over there. We underestimate them at our own peril. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_per_capita_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
- chairmansteve 2y ago
  I saw a comment somewhere that China uses free markets for the benefit of the state, whereas the USA uses free markets for the benefit of private capital.
  - signatoremo 2y ago
    China mint the most numbers of millionaires and billionaires in the 21st century.
    - pragmomm 2y ago
      China also has 800 million people making less than $100/month. where do you think the millionaires and billionaires in China skimmed their wealth from?

abdullahkhalids 2y ago

Is there any independent confirmation of these numbers? Seem too extraordinary to be believed without extraordinary evidence.

yen223 2y ago
The tweet uses "number of companies founded" as a metric, which to me isn't as illustrative as something like revenue/company or similar.
- signatoremo 2y ago
  This is about startups, which by definition means companies founded in the previous few years, with very little revenue. His metrics make perfect sense. I must say this is a real surprise. Needs to be corroborated by another source.
  - mike_hearn 2y ago
    The original source is the FT citing a company that tracks startups.
    - Prbeek 2y ago
      The owner of that company wrote that FT cited the wrong data

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago

Is there really an incentive for startups in China today compared to 4 years ago? Look what the government there has done to very rich and influential people in just the last few years. Once you have achieved your goal of building a great business, it can all be taken away from you overnight while you rot in a jail cell. Might as well take it easy and at least enjoy your life instead of losing ten prime years to a hard grind for nothing.

Prbeek 2y ago
Do you have a link which business was taken away from an entrepreneur?

aeternum 2y ago

Is this data actually correct? Looks China is still doing just fine on the tech side, landing a rocket, LLM model that topped coding challenges, robots that are significantly outperforming boston dynamics. Is it just that those companies were founded during the peak?

stonethrowaway 2y ago

Trap for young players: don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like. In other words, pure bullshit if you’re not in the in-crowd to pick up the jokes that TPTB are sending to each other by posting absurd things.

southernplaces7 2y ago
>don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like. Nonsense. Sure, there's lots of bad reporting about China in the West but generalizing as you do is as absurd as swallowing the latest from Fox News and taking it as gospel. There's also lots of astute, reasoned and well-analyzed reporting about China in the west and elsewhere. For example, about the region of the world I've been living in for nearly two decades, I see lots of excellent reporting, and much of it comes from external sources; some of the best in fact. It's possible to do this without being within a given system. What alternative sources should people use for China then? Name a few instead of lazily criticizing to feel superior.
- stonethrowaway 2y ago
  You ever heard of that phrase “actions speak louder than words”? No? Okay, let me give you an intro then. The only two sources you can trust on this subject matter are actions of countries, and the the use of the thing between your ears. There is a political game that is played and the only thing that matters are the moves made. All of the words wasted in so-called “news” are irrelevant. That’s just entertainment for the masses devoid of reality. The things that matter are actions and inactions of countries. The straight moves, the misdirects, and the jukes along the way. Whenever you are gloating about how a country is doing something dumb, you are saying that you cannot read the hand they are about to play. Keep this in mind, and act accordingly.
  - southernplaces7 2y ago
    Your claim is absurdly, childishly reductionist. The actions of countries themselves can often be wrapped deeply in layers of obfuscation, secrecy, hidden motive and incompetence, or in many other things, and be extremely hard to even know of unless you're literally on the spot, or read at a distance for the events leading to them and their ramifications. Analysis of other's texts and selective reading from well curated sources is absolutely useful and important in knowing what's going on in a place or what might come. Many historical examples of this abound and what you say is literally just nonsense, as if it were something invented by a dramatic teenager who hasn't actually read anything of history outside a Robert Ludlum novel (if that). Many excellent analyses by informed outsiders with insider sources or by people who just used good investigative procedure, existed of Nazi Germany, the USSR under the bolsheviks, the USSR pre-collapse, and other countries, that if they had been read by people with a discerning eye, could have yielded powerful information about what these countries would eventually do and how. News, as in general run of the mill reporting, is often just blather, but in between it, or distilled from it and from other sources, much important information can be gleaned.

rurban 2y ago

> VCs in China now spend most of their time suing the startups they invested in to get their money back. > Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans. > Hard to imagine why anyone would start a company under these conditions. Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there. Well done

RestlessMind 2y ago
> Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans. "Limited Liability" coupled with Venture capital, which was willing to take risky bets, was one of the greatest innovations unshackling a lot of entrepreneurship. > Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there. Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity.
- rurban 2y ago
  > Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity. Exactly. Limited liability is a big worry. Crooks everywhere