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The relationship between money printing and inflation is neither linear nor instantaneous, but the connection is very real. Are you arguing that printing 80% o

by lowkey 2y ago

The relationship between money printing and inflation is neither linear nor instantaneous, but the connection is very real. Are you arguing that printing 80% of all the dollars ever created in a short two-year time span had no effect on inflation?

Retric 2y ago
I’m saying not printing money would have been disastrous, and much money to print wasn’t obvious. A few years of moderate inflation was an almost perfect outcome compared to the other possibilities.
- lowkey 2y ago
  I think we have very different definitions of moderate inflation. Note: I don't consider CPI a good measure of inflation experienced by the average consumer. Unfortunately the measure is heavily politicized and thus highly distorted from real-world experience. Nonetheless, using CPI as a benchmark: - Average CPI exploded 382% between 2020 and 2021 (from 1.23% to 4.7%) - Grew another 170% from 2021 to 2022 or 650% increase from 2020 to 2022 (2022 CPI was 8.0%) - It subsided somewhat in 2023 and 2024 (to 4% then 3%) but remains significantly higher than historical norms. Notably, CPI is now expected to remain at or above 3% for the foreseeable future, which is a sustained 50% increase over the previous target of 2% The Fed is now working to normalize this new normal as there is basically no chance of us ever returning to the prior target of 2% CPI anytime soon. Also note that the largest spikes in inflation align closely with the Feds massive money printing in 2021 and 2022. source: https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832 https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
  - Retric 2y ago
    1.23% is below the FED’s target, they would want it to rise to maintain healthy economic growth. 4.7% is also slightly outside the desired range but they don’t consider it a major issue during an economic crisis. In terms of an authoritative source the World Bank says moderate inflation is 15-30%. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/325061468767082906/moderate-inflation https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-rep...
    - lowkey 2y ago
      > authoritative source the World Bank says moderate inflation is 15-30% I'm not sure if you are being serious or not. Think it through, are you telling me you believe that 29% year over year inflation for years on end with prices doubling every 3 years -- is moderate inflation? And do you really believe after making such a ludicrous statement that the world bank is a credible authoritative source on anything? Do you also still believe that inflation from 2021-2024 was primarily due to COVID, the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues? Do you choose to ignore, like the government and the FED that printing 80% of all the dollars ever created between 2021-2022 was not an important or more likely the primary factor driving inflation?

by lowkey 2y ago

Retric 2y ago

I’m saying not printing money would have been disastrous, and much money to print wasn’t obvious. A few years of moderate inflation was an almost perfect outcome compared to the other possibilities.

lowkey 2y ago
I think we have very different definitions of moderate inflation. Note: I don't consider CPI a good measure of inflation experienced by the average consumer. Unfortunately the measure is heavily politicized and thus highly distorted from real-world experience. Nonetheless, using CPI as a benchmark: - Average CPI exploded 382% between 2020 and 2021 (from 1.23% to 4.7%) - Grew another 170% from 2021 to 2022 or 650% increase from 2020 to 2022 (2022 CPI was 8.0%) - It subsided somewhat in 2023 and 2024 (to 4% then 3%) but remains significantly higher than historical norms. Notably, CPI is now expected to remain at or above 3% for the foreseeable future, which is a sustained 50% increase over the previous target of 2% The Fed is now working to normalize this new normal as there is basically no chance of us ever returning to the prior target of 2% CPI anytime soon. Also note that the largest spikes in inflation align closely with the Feds massive money printing in 2021 and 2022. source: https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832 https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
- Retric 2y ago
  1.23% is below the FED’s target, they would want it to rise to maintain healthy economic growth. 4.7% is also slightly outside the desired range but they don’t consider it a major issue during an economic crisis. In terms of an authoritative source the World Bank says moderate inflation is 15-30%. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/325061468767082906/moderate-inflation https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-rep...
  - lowkey 2y ago
    > authoritative source the World Bank says moderate inflation is 15-30% I'm not sure if you are being serious or not. Think it through, are you telling me you believe that 29% year over year inflation for years on end with prices doubling every 3 years -- is moderate inflation? And do you really believe after making such a ludicrous statement that the world bank is a credible authoritative source on anything? Do you also still believe that inflation from 2021-2024 was primarily due to COVID, the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues? Do you choose to ignore, like the government and the FED that printing 80% of all the dollars ever created between 2021-2022 was not an important or more likely the primary factor driving inflation?