I was ready to quibble with whether a primary care doctor would have the most reliable statistics on this topic but I found this source, with linked study, that

I was ready to quibble with whether a primary care doctor would have the most reliable statistics on this topic but I found this source, with linked study, that implies (s)he is dead on: https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/estimated-hiv-risk-exposure https://www.aidsmap.com/about-hiv/estimated-hiv-risk-exposur... (Also estimates chances for other risk profiles, including 0% for undetectable.) Seems like you’ve got a good doc there