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I don't argue for a second that our birthrate isn't dropping; it is. But we either haven't dropped it enough, or it's being offset by higher consumption. The ov

I don't argue for a second that our birthrate isn't dropping; it is. But we either haven't dropped it enough, or it's being offset by higher consumption. The overshoot day is now the 1st of August [1]. Until we push that back out to to a sustainable level, we haven't done enough. To achieve that, I can only see a few classes of solution. We could reduce our per-capita consumption, our lifespan, or our number. I'm assuming that the overshoot day is roughly correct. The details of exactly how much our birthrate has dropped or by how much our consumption has increased isn't important to know that there is a massive discrepancy between where we are and what is sustainable. Doing anything that increases that discrepancy is probably going to make it worse. [1] https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/ https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> We could reduce our per-capita consumption, our lifespan, or our number What is your evidence for shorter lives promoting long-term thinking? Like, look at a map of life expectancy in America [1]. Is Mississippi the bastion of ecological awareness you’re looking for? Number and per-capita impact are the important variables. Wealth reduces the former and exponentially increases the latter. Longevity reduces the former and linearly increases the latter. (Poverty and reduction in lifespan exponentially increase the former while linearly reducing the latter; you don’t worry about efficiency when you have a short, brutish life.) [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_life_expectancy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_terr...
- resonator 2y ago
  > What is your evidence for shorter lives promoting long-term thinking? I'm looking at it in the other direction; that long-term thinking might result in shorter lives.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > looking at it in the other direction; that long-term thinking might result in shorter lives Based on what? Increasing lifespan reduces fertility [1]. This is empirically and theoretically grounded. Older populations shrink [2]. Your proposal, shortening lives, is one for boosting populations and consumption. All that said, this debate is academic. If longevity treatment is possible, we will develop it, and the population can sort itself into those who live longer and those who don’t. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3220400/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3220400/ [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00023-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00023-z
cstrahan 2y ago
We'll be alright: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/07/29/why-earth-overshoot-day-and-the-ecological-footprint-are-pseudoscientific-nonsense/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/07/29... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029445-000-admit-it-we-cant-measure-our-ecological-footprint/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029445-000-admit-it... What value do you get out of believing in Earth Overshoot Day? Does it provide real, actionable utility? Does such a belief instill good feelings? If I had to guess: it tickles the reward pathways in your brain, connected to your survival instinct to be aware of possible threats, whether real or (as I would argue is the case here) imagined. I would doubt there's anything you plan to personally do about Earth Overshoot Day, and I doubt thinking about it instills positive feelings. It's doom porn.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> We could reduce our per-capita consumption, our lifespan, or our number What is your evidence for shorter lives promoting long-term thinking? Like, look at a map of life expectancy in America [1]. Is Mississippi the bastion of ecological awareness you’re looking for? Number and per-capita impact are the important variables. Wealth reduces the former and exponentially increases the latter. Longevity reduces the former and linearly increases the latter. (Poverty and reduction in lifespan exponentially increase the former while linearly reducing the latter; you don’t worry about efficiency when you have a short, brutish life.) [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_life_expectancy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_terr...

resonator 2y ago
> What is your evidence for shorter lives promoting long-term thinking? I'm looking at it in the other direction; that long-term thinking might result in shorter lives.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > looking at it in the other direction; that long-term thinking might result in shorter lives Based on what? Increasing lifespan reduces fertility [1]. This is empirically and theoretically grounded. Older populations shrink [2]. Your proposal, shortening lives, is one for boosting populations and consumption. All that said, this debate is academic. If longevity treatment is possible, we will develop it, and the population can sort itself into those who live longer and those who don’t. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3220400/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3220400/ [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00023-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00023-z

cstrahan 2y ago

We'll be alright: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/07/29/why-earth-overshoot-day-and-the-ecological-footprint-are-pseudoscientific-nonsense/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/07/29... https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029445-000-admit-it-we-cant-measure-our-ecological-footprint/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029445-000-admit-it... What value do you get out of believing in Earth Overshoot Day? Does it provide real, actionable utility? Does such a belief instill good feelings? If I had to guess: it tickles the reward pathways in your brain, connected to your survival instinct to be aware of possible threats, whether real or (as I would argue is the case here) imagined. I would doubt there's anything you plan to personally do about Earth Overshoot Day, and I doubt thinking about it instills positive feelings. It's doom porn.