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Both China and Russia are building alternatives to Boeing/Airbus commercial airliners. But are in two completely different situations. COMAC relies on internat

Both China and Russia are building alternatives to Boeing/Airbus commercial airliners. But are in two completely different situations. COMAC relies on international suppliers, probably hoping that will make it easier for them to be allowed to fly outside China and then over time they can use more and more domestic suppliers. Whereas the Russians are completely cut off from international suppliers and travel, and have to resurrect their airliner projects which have been more or less dormant since the Soviet times. I think both will be succesful over time; they have huge internal markets that can sponsor quite a bit of development cost.

throwaway4good 2y ago
And the Chinese have a modern engine under development that can be used in a commercial airliner: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A
TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
China might. Russia has decided to move its economy in a different direction.
- throwaway4good 2y ago
  Even at war and cut off from the world the Russian economy is growing. Driving by buoyant commodity prices. They have tech for civilian aviation in their massive military industry. And just the sheer size of the country guarantees the demand.
  - dralley 2y ago
    The economy is growing because of massive government expenditures on defense. The same thing happened with Nazi Germany. It's not sustainable. "Buoyant commodity prices" is also known as inflation. They have high inflation despite having a federal interest rate of 18%, which is sky high. Not great signs for their economy.
    - HPsquared 2y ago
      Silicon Valley was built on defense spending.
      - brnt 2y ago
        Nobody is interested in 1970’s airliners though.
        HPsquared 2y ago
        In that part of the world, if those are the only ones available...
        brnt 2y ago
        Then it aint no Silicon Valley.
      - signatoremo 2y ago
        Not at the same scale. At the peak of the Vietnam War, the US spent less than 10% of GDP on the war. Most of the time it was only half of that (for comparison it’s less than 3% at the moment). Russia currently spend about 40% of the GDP on Ukraine war ( coming off my memory, may not be 100% accurate). That can’t be sustainable and they will have long lasting impact.
        racional 2y ago
        The figure I've seen for Russia's spend is 40% of its budget, not its GDP. More like about 10 percent of GDP. Still an insane amount, for a war that has been obviously insane from the very beginning. But a different number, in any case.
        cpursley 2y ago
        It's 6% which is not a dealbreaker for a country with one of the lowest GDP to Debt ratios (assuming the war does not stretch for another 5 years). https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/09/russias-2024-budget-shows-its-planning-for-a-long-war-in-ukraine?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/0...
  - phonon 2y ago
    Russia's GDP is a bit more than half of California's. Civil aviation there is a few hundred planes (about the size of Southwest--in total), and is heavily government subsidized. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-splashes-12-bln-keep-aviation-sector-air-2023-12-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sp...
    - cpursley 2y ago
      The reason they dipped in terms of planes is directly related to sanctions and western countries pulling out based on the article you shared. Worth noting, the foreign parts Sukhoi Superjet 100 (a very good regional jet) are in the process of being fully "Russified" and the MC-21 is actually a true domestic plane vs the Chinese C-919: - https://aviacionline.com/2022/05/sukhoi-tests-100-russian-aviadvigatel-pd-8-engine-on-an-ilyushin-il-76/ https://aviacionline.com/2022/05/sukhoi-tests-100-russian-av... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E32TCdBgkoY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E32TCdBgkoY Also, Russia just surpassed Japan to become #4 in terms of GDP PPP (the number that matters), was recently reclassified as a high-income county and is expected to experience relatively high GDP growth, and that's even under the heaviest sanction regime on the planet x3 and after getting cut off from SWIFT: https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors/eds23/brief/russia-was-classified-as-high-income-country https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors/eds2...
      - phonon 2y ago
        https://simpleflying.com/sukohi-superjet-100-crash-russia/ https://simpleflying.com/sukohi-superjet-100-crash-russia/
      - sofixa 2y ago
        > Worth noting, the foreign parts Sukhoi Superjet 100 (a very good regional jet) A very good based on what measurement? Operators have complained about extremely poor reliability, and there have been a high amount of crashes. > and the MC-21 is actually a true domestic plane vs the Chinese C-919: The MS-21 isn't domestic, it uses Western avionics and engines. There's a russified version which is supposed to be launched in 2025-2026, but it's unknown if that would happen considering it's using the Aviadvigatel PD-14 engines which are still undergoing design refinement and testing. It could literally be years before the engines are ready, so when the jet enters service is anyone's guess. > Also, Russia just surpassed Japan to become #4 in terms of GDP PPP (the number that matters), was recently reclassified as a high-income county and is expected to experience relatively high GDP growth, and that's even under the heaviest sanction regime on the planet x3 and after getting cut off from SWIFT: A big issue with these metrics is that they use the official exchange rate for RUB to USD exchange rate, which is entirely theoretical since it's impossible to trade the two due to the sanctions. The real exchange rate is probably much worse for the RUB, so these metrics based on the official theoretical one are highly misleading.
conradev 2y ago
COMAC’s C919 is flying domestically and their next goal is EASA type certification I imagine it will be more geopolitics than anything else, but the EASA says 2026 is “too soon”.
- sofixa 2y ago
  > I imagine it will be more geopolitics than anything else, but the EASA says 2026 is “too soon”. Certifying a new jet from scratch is usually a multi-year endeavour, so why would it be geopolitics? The C-Series, latest jet to be certified, took a good 2.5 years from first flight to type certification. And the C919 hasn't started EASA certification yet.

throwaway4good 2y ago

And the Chinese have a modern engine under development that can be used in a commercial airliner: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A

TheOtherHobbes 2y ago

China might. Russia has decided to move its economy in a different direction.

throwaway4good 2y ago
Even at war and cut off from the world the Russian economy is growing. Driving by buoyant commodity prices. They have tech for civilian aviation in their massive military industry. And just the sheer size of the country guarantees the demand.
- dralley 2y ago
  The economy is growing because of massive government expenditures on defense. The same thing happened with Nazi Germany. It's not sustainable. "Buoyant commodity prices" is also known as inflation. They have high inflation despite having a federal interest rate of 18%, which is sky high. Not great signs for their economy.
  - HPsquared 2y ago
    Silicon Valley was built on defense spending.
    - brnt 2y ago
      Nobody is interested in 1970’s airliners though.
      - HPsquared 2y ago
        In that part of the world, if those are the only ones available...
        brnt 2y ago
        Then it aint no Silicon Valley.
    - signatoremo 2y ago
      Not at the same scale. At the peak of the Vietnam War, the US spent less than 10% of GDP on the war. Most of the time it was only half of that (for comparison it’s less than 3% at the moment). Russia currently spend about 40% of the GDP on Ukraine war ( coming off my memory, may not be 100% accurate). That can’t be sustainable and they will have long lasting impact.
      - racional 2y ago
        The figure I've seen for Russia's spend is 40% of its budget, not its GDP. More like about 10 percent of GDP. Still an insane amount, for a war that has been obviously insane from the very beginning. But a different number, in any case.
      - cpursley 2y ago
        It's 6% which is not a dealbreaker for a country with one of the lowest GDP to Debt ratios (assuming the war does not stretch for another 5 years). https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/09/russias-2024-budget-shows-its-planning-for-a-long-war-in-ukraine?lang=en https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/0...
- phonon 2y ago
  Russia's GDP is a bit more than half of California's. Civil aviation there is a few hundred planes (about the size of Southwest--in total), and is heavily government subsidized. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-splashes-12-bln-keep-aviation-sector-air-2023-12-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sp...
  - cpursley 2y ago
    The reason they dipped in terms of planes is directly related to sanctions and western countries pulling out based on the article you shared. Worth noting, the foreign parts Sukhoi Superjet 100 (a very good regional jet) are in the process of being fully "Russified" and the MC-21 is actually a true domestic plane vs the Chinese C-919: - https://aviacionline.com/2022/05/sukhoi-tests-100-russian-aviadvigatel-pd-8-engine-on-an-ilyushin-il-76/ https://aviacionline.com/2022/05/sukhoi-tests-100-russian-av... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E32TCdBgkoY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E32TCdBgkoY Also, Russia just surpassed Japan to become #4 in terms of GDP PPP (the number that matters), was recently reclassified as a high-income county and is expected to experience relatively high GDP growth, and that's even under the heaviest sanction regime on the planet x3 and after getting cut off from SWIFT: https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors/eds23/brief/russia-was-classified-as-high-income-country https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/directors/eds2...
    - phonon 2y ago
      https://simpleflying.com/sukohi-superjet-100-crash-russia/ https://simpleflying.com/sukohi-superjet-100-crash-russia/
    - sofixa 2y ago
      > Worth noting, the foreign parts Sukhoi Superjet 100 (a very good regional jet) A very good based on what measurement? Operators have complained about extremely poor reliability, and there have been a high amount of crashes. > and the MC-21 is actually a true domestic plane vs the Chinese C-919: The MS-21 isn't domestic, it uses Western avionics and engines. There's a russified version which is supposed to be launched in 2025-2026, but it's unknown if that would happen considering it's using the Aviadvigatel PD-14 engines which are still undergoing design refinement and testing. It could literally be years before the engines are ready, so when the jet enters service is anyone's guess. > Also, Russia just surpassed Japan to become #4 in terms of GDP PPP (the number that matters), was recently reclassified as a high-income county and is expected to experience relatively high GDP growth, and that's even under the heaviest sanction regime on the planet x3 and after getting cut off from SWIFT: A big issue with these metrics is that they use the official exchange rate for RUB to USD exchange rate, which is entirely theoretical since it's impossible to trade the two due to the sanctions. The real exchange rate is probably much worse for the RUB, so these metrics based on the official theoretical one are highly misleading.

conradev 2y ago

COMAC’s C919 is flying domestically and their next goal is EASA type certification I imagine it will be more geopolitics than anything else, but the EASA says 2026 is “too soon”.

sofixa 2y ago
> I imagine it will be more geopolitics than anything else, but the EASA says 2026 is “too soon”. Certifying a new jet from scratch is usually a multi-year endeavour, so why would it be geopolitics? The C-Series, latest jet to be certified, took a good 2.5 years from first flight to type certification. And the C919 hasn't started EASA certification yet.