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"during 2019-2020, the last flu season prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 7 million influenza illnesses, 3 million influenz

"during 2019-2020, the last flu season prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 7 million influenza illnesses, 3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 100,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 7,000 influenza-associated deaths." https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm Time will tell how effective covid vaccines are when it's mutating as rapidly as it is. The covid vaccine will definitely reduce zero infections if people do not get it.

ifyoubuildit 2y ago
Yeah, sorry I wasn't clear, I was talking about the covid shots. There are studies suggesting negative efficacy against infection after the initial period°. So while I think for hospitalizations and death there is a stronger argument, for infections it's not terribly clear. ° from chat gpt (with all the standard caveats): Source: "Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: a Danish cohort study" (Published in The Lancet). Source: "Efficacy of a Fourth Dose of Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine against Omicron" (Published in NEJM). Source: UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports.
- guyzero 2y ago
  From the first paper: "Conclusions Two vaccine doses provided high protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization with the Alpha and Delta variants with protection, notably against infection, waning over time. Two vaccine doses provided only limited and short-lived protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection with Omicron. However, the protection against COVID-19 hospitalization following Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher. The third vaccine dose substantially increased the level and duration of protection against infection with the Omicron variant and provided a high level of sustained protection against COVID-19 hospitalization among the +60-year-olds." No indication of negative efficacy.
  - ifyoubuildit 2y ago
    Look at the table on page 9 for 2 doses past 180 days. Negative efficacy is within the error bars. By no means a slam dunk, but it's there. EDIT: Also consider that the endpoint is "symptomatic infection", so it misses asymptomatic infections. The 3rd dose followup periods aren't long enough in this study to see what happens there.

ifyoubuildit 2y ago

Yeah, sorry I wasn't clear, I was talking about the covid shots. There are studies suggesting negative efficacy against infection after the initial period°. So while I think for hospitalizations and death there is a stronger argument, for infections it's not terribly clear. ° from chat gpt (with all the standard caveats): Source: "Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: a Danish cohort study" (Published in The Lancet). Source: "Efficacy of a Fourth Dose of Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine against Omicron" (Published in NEJM). Source: UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports.

guyzero 2y ago
From the first paper: "Conclusions Two vaccine doses provided high protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization with the Alpha and Delta variants with protection, notably against infection, waning over time. Two vaccine doses provided only limited and short-lived protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection with Omicron. However, the protection against COVID-19 hospitalization following Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher. The third vaccine dose substantially increased the level and duration of protection against infection with the Omicron variant and provided a high level of sustained protection against COVID-19 hospitalization among the +60-year-olds." No indication of negative efficacy.
- ifyoubuildit 2y ago
  Look at the table on page 9 for 2 doses past 180 days. Negative efficacy is within the error bars. By no means a slam dunk, but it's there. EDIT: Also consider that the endpoint is "symptomatic infection", so it misses asymptomatic infections. The 3rd dose followup periods aren't long enough in this study to see what happens there.