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I think ML is likely to be material to us making many more such discoveries. So much of the current constraint is not in the knowledge to identify the interesti
by dojomouse 2y ago
I think ML is likely to be material to us making many more such discoveries. So much of the current constraint is not in the knowledge to identify the interesting pattern, but the capacity to look for it at scale.
- grugagag 2y agoYeah but you missed the point op was making
- markburns 2y agoThat seems an uncharitable view of the reply. The search space is huge, we sometimes find needles in haystacks by accident, isn’t it exciting that we have tools now that can systematically check every piece of hay?
- richrichie 2y agoML search is more about ‘averages’ based on samples. Innovations like these are more about ‘shocks’ that surface fitting cannot capture. Note universal approximation theorem applies only to smooth surfaces.
- tomrod 2y agoNot always. Quantile regression exists. And you can develop "no match" categories.
- richrichie 2y agoQuantile regression is also about averages.
- tomrod 2y agoAverages are formulated as measures of centrality in the L2 norm ("straight line" distance), sum(values) / count(values). Quantile regression uses modifications the L1 norm ("city block" distance); if median (50%) then it is a measure of centrality. Not everything is an average. If you're interested, this is a good (but math heavy) treatment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile_regression#Computation_of_estimates_for_regression_parameters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile_regression#Computatio...
- kylehotchkiss 2y agoWell said.
- radarsat1 2y agoBut the better the mean surface is fitted (in a generizable way), the easier it is to spot outliers.
- dojomouse 2y agoPerhaps. I was thinking along the lines of MarkBurns response - ML will allow us to efficiently look in those places we might otherwise only have searched by accident. If ops point was rather that “accident”/“luck” are uniquely human… I don’t agree. Luck is when probability works out in your favour - and that can happen all the time with any sort of probabilistic search, which is rife in ML.