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> Mining rates are growing quickly. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/202

> Mining rates are growing quickly. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-wor... > there are competing materials for new battery tech besides lithium And which of those are mass-production ready and are being deployed? Maybe one day, one of them will. Until such time, this argument is about the situation as-is. > when you have large over supplies of energy you can pursue hydrogen. The over supply would need to be truly enormeous, because Hydrogen is a cryogenic gas. It needs to be pressurized and cooled, both of which requires a constant expenditure of energy which is lost as usable power. It also carries [safety risks][1], and is [infamously hard to keep under control][1]. > commercial viability absolutely matters. Long term, preventing climate change matters more. Alot more. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_safety [2]: https://gizmodo.com/nasa-hydrogen-leaks-sls-rocket-space-shuttle-1849500702 https://gizmodo.com/nasa-hydrogen-leaks-sls-rocket-space-shu...

jncfhnb 2y ago
> And which of those are mass-production ready and are being deployed? Maybe one day, one of them will. Until such time, this argument is about the situation as-is. Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine. The drawbacks are not significant. Lithium is simply cheap enough to be preferable at the moment and likely will continue to be. > The over supply would need to be truly enormeous, because Hydrogen is a cryogenic gas. It is. Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing. > Long term, preventing climate change matters more. Alot more. Having 5x more energy available to do useful work, per dollar, is going to enable a lot more… useful work. if you’re willing to increase the cost of energy by 5x, then you should probably also be willing to just raise the price of energy during off generation hours to try and align usage to generation and mitigate the battery necessity altogether. Because that would STILL be cheaper for customers than the high prices you’re introducing by suggesting we go for nuclear
- usrbinbash 2y ago
  > Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine. Again, this discussion is about the as-is situation. If and when Na-ion enters mass production on a comparable scale, I will happily discuss it. > Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing. That does not indicate that we over-produce to a degree that would make H2 as a storage vector viable. Plus, alot of over-capacity has more to do with lagging infrastructure (e.g. Germany has enormeous problems getting SOlar power to where it is needed) than it has with actual net-overproduction. > f you’re willing to increase the cost of energy Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones.
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today Your complaint about hydrogen seems indefensible in light of industry forecasters all saying hydrogen is likely to grow pretty darn fast over the next two decades > Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones. My dude, Economics is the allocation of scarce resources. The most efficient way per dollar to remove carbon from our systems is by definition the most efficient way to do so. Given a fixed budget, choosing a less efficient method will result in removing carbon more slowly. Even if you want to say “fuck the budgets man”, those newly inflated budgets are still better off spent on the more efficient tools
    - usrbinbash 2y ago
      > Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today Since we were talking about economic viability: "The global Lithium-ion Battery Market in terms of revenue was estimated to be worth $56.8 billion in 2023 and is poised to reach $187.1 billion by 2032" [Source][1] "The global sodium-ion battery market was valued at USD 0.5 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach USD 1.2 billion by 2028" [Source][2] Please explain how a difference between 0.5bn and 56.8bn constitutes "comparable scale". [1]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-market-49714593.html https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion... [2]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/sodium-ion-battery-market-207269067.html https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/sodium-ion-...

jncfhnb 2y ago

> And which of those are mass-production ready and are being deployed? Maybe one day, one of them will. Until such time, this argument is about the situation as-is. Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine. The drawbacks are not significant. Lithium is simply cheap enough to be preferable at the moment and likely will continue to be. > The over supply would need to be truly enormeous, because Hydrogen is a cryogenic gas. It is. Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing. > Long term, preventing climate change matters more. Alot more. Having 5x more energy available to do useful work, per dollar, is going to enable a lot more… useful work. if you’re willing to increase the cost of energy by 5x, then you should probably also be willing to just raise the price of energy during off generation hours to try and align usage to generation and mitigate the battery necessity altogether. Because that would STILL be cheaper for customers than the high prices you’re introducing by suggesting we go for nuclear

usrbinbash 2y ago
> Sodium ion batteries are doing just fine. Again, this discussion is about the as-is situation. If and when Na-ion enters mass production on a comparable scale, I will happily discuss it. > Negative energy prices at peak generation times are increasingly a thing. That does not indicate that we over-produce to a degree that would make H2 as a storage vector viable. Plus, alot of over-capacity has more to do with lagging infrastructure (e.g. Germany has enormeous problems getting SOlar power to where it is needed) than it has with actual net-overproduction. > f you’re willing to increase the cost of energy Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today Your complaint about hydrogen seems indefensible in light of industry forecasters all saying hydrogen is likely to grow pretty darn fast over the next two decades > Again: Economic concerns lose lose long term to environmental and physical ones. My dude, Economics is the allocation of scarce resources. The most efficient way per dollar to remove carbon from our systems is by definition the most efficient way to do so. Given a fixed budget, choosing a less efficient method will result in removing carbon more slowly. Even if you want to say “fuck the budgets man”, those newly inflated budgets are still better off spent on the more efficient tools
  - usrbinbash 2y ago
    > Sodium ion batteries are mass produced at a comparable scale today Since we were talking about economic viability: "The global Lithium-ion Battery Market in terms of revenue was estimated to be worth $56.8 billion in 2023 and is poised to reach $187.1 billion by 2032" [Source][1] "The global sodium-ion battery market was valued at USD 0.5 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach USD 1.2 billion by 2028" [Source][2] Please explain how a difference between 0.5bn and 56.8bn constitutes "comparable scale". [1]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-market-49714593.html https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion... [2]: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/sodium-ion-battery-market-207269067.html https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/sodium-ion-...