14 ms·

They can’t be made in a factory and thus the learning effect is very small (if it even exists - nuclear reactors have increased in price).

by jrnvs 2y ago

candiddevmike 2y ago
> They can’t be made in a factory They can now, see Small Modular Reactors (SMR).
- fifilura 2y ago
  Where can I see one?
  - ViewTrick1002 2y ago
    Just need to: 1. Build prototype 2. Iterate on prototype. 3. In conjunction start standardizing and automating processes. 4. Achieve large enough scale to amortize the factory and process optimization costs over enough units to actually gain anything. The “SMR hype industry” seems to be perpetually stuck at 1, not even being able to deliver a single prototype. All the while talking like the factory already exists and SMRs are solved. Somehow it doesn’t add up.
  - rad_gruchalski 2y ago
    https://aris.iaea.org/Publications/SMR_booklet_2022.pdf https://aris.iaea.org/Publications/SMR_booklet_2022.pdf linked from https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:~:text=More%20than%2080,they%20are%20deployed https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-.... I don't know, I'm not a specialist. But this came up by doing a rudimentary search.
    - fifilura 2y ago
      Thank you! Seems like I have 4 choices (although i probably don't want to go to Russia, since they are at war). KLT-40S Russia HTR-PM China HTR-10 China HTTR Japan
    - fifilura 2y ago
      Yay! There is a company called Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation. It has a nice ring to it! "Super safe bank" "Really clean hamburger restaurant" "Most trustworth car salesman" "Very accurate surgeon"
      - rad_gruchalski 2y ago
        This is pretty interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR7VDqUbaCg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR7VDqUbaCg.
        fch42 2y ago
        If they really work in this factory like shown in that video, handling radioactive material in the production process with little personal protection (especially against airborne dust), then at least I for one would not like to work for them, ever. The safety of "final" product notwithstanding (that's fine), the shaping, size sorting and sintering processes create dust and really, you don't want to get that into yourself.
Moldoteck 2y ago
Did these increase in price in China too?
nomel 2y ago
Please see the cost breakdown: https://ifp.org/nuclear-power-plant-construction-costs/ https://ifp.org/nuclear-power-plant-construction-costs/ Very very little is made/manufactured on site. You do not make turbines, computers, pipes, or much at all, on a construction site. You form, weld, pour, and assemble. The goal would be a standard design, to cut those giant engineering and custom fabrication costs to a small fraction. You don't need to deliver a completed factory on a pallet to save costs (although that's possible with distributed small module reactors, as Asia is ramping up for).
- treyd 2y ago
  Which is why France has such strong nuclear supply, they decided going into it to hage standard designs.
  - Retric 2y ago
    France’s nuclear is fully owned by the government. The subsidies are so huge there’s basically zero market forces in play on the supply side.
    - mpweiher 2y ago
      It's not subsidized. In fact, cheap nuclear electricity is used to subsidize other industries. The entire nuclear industry (construction, operation, support) cost France € 228 billion and produce 11000 TWh (by 2012). That's 2,07 cents/kWh. Not too shabby.
      - Retric 2y ago
        Your numbers are wildly off and not just from ignoring inflation when using poorly sourced numbers from 2012. Quick, how much did they spend on fuel over that timeframe? Well according to that estimate it was 0, so it’s hardly including the operating costs. To give some perspective: “In March 2023 France's Parliament formally approved the government's nuclear investment plan – by 402 votes in favor and 130 against – which considers the €52 billion construction of six new EPR-2 PWRs at three sites.” That’s not operations that’s just for construction of 6 reactors when they have 56 in operation and that’s interest free unlike US reactor where interest is included with construction costs. One year later that’s already been increased to 67.4 billion euros: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-lifts-cost-estimate-new-reactors-67-bln-euros-les-echos-2024-03-04/#:~:text=PARIS%2C%20March%204%20(Reuters),on%20Monday%2C%20citing%20unidentified%20sources https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-l.... France operated as a pay as you go system so they didn’t set money aside for the full cost of decommissioning their reactors etc. Last I checked there was some talk in 2017 of them setting aside 27 billion based on some ridiculously optimistic estimates but mostly the plan is just foist the costs onto future taxpayers.
qball 2y ago
>They can’t be made in a factory All nuclear power plants made since around 1980s or so have been made in factories. The US (and other nations) use them all the time for their submarines- defense concerns correctly override environmentalists (and the oil companies backing them financially). The problem is a solved one. We're rich enough to afford to tilt at windmills instead- for now, anyway.

They can’t be made in a factory and thus the learning effect is very small (if it even exists - nuclear reactors have increased in price).

by jrnvs 2y ago

They can’t be made in a factory and thus the learning effect is very small (if it even exists - nuclear reactors have increased in price).

candiddevmike 2y ago

> They can’t be made in a factory They can now, see Small Modular Reactors (SMR).

fifilura 2y ago
Where can I see one?
- ViewTrick1002 2y ago
  Just need to: 1. Build prototype 2. Iterate on prototype. 3. In conjunction start standardizing and automating processes. 4. Achieve large enough scale to amortize the factory and process optimization costs over enough units to actually gain anything. The “SMR hype industry” seems to be perpetually stuck at 1, not even being able to deliver a single prototype. All the while talking like the factory already exists and SMRs are solved. Somehow it doesn’t add up.
- rad_gruchalski 2y ago
  https://aris.iaea.org/Publications/SMR_booklet_2022.pdf https://aris.iaea.org/Publications/SMR_booklet_2022.pdf linked from https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:~:text=More%20than%2080,they%20are%20deployed https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-.... I don't know, I'm not a specialist. But this came up by doing a rudimentary search.
  - fifilura 2y ago
    Thank you! Seems like I have 4 choices (although i probably don't want to go to Russia, since they are at war). KLT-40S Russia HTR-PM China HTR-10 China HTTR Japan
  - fifilura 2y ago
    Yay! There is a company called Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation. It has a nice ring to it! "Super safe bank" "Really clean hamburger restaurant" "Most trustworth car salesman" "Very accurate surgeon"
    - rad_gruchalski 2y ago
      This is pretty interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR7VDqUbaCg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR7VDqUbaCg.
      - fch42 2y ago
        If they really work in this factory like shown in that video, handling radioactive material in the production process with little personal protection (especially against airborne dust), then at least I for one would not like to work for them, ever. The safety of "final" product notwithstanding (that's fine), the shaping, size sorting and sintering processes create dust and really, you don't want to get that into yourself.

Moldoteck 2y ago

Did these increase in price in China too?

nomel 2y ago

Please see the cost breakdown: https://ifp.org/nuclear-power-plant-construction-costs/ https://ifp.org/nuclear-power-plant-construction-costs/ Very very little is made/manufactured on site. You do not make turbines, computers, pipes, or much at all, on a construction site. You form, weld, pour, and assemble. The goal would be a standard design, to cut those giant engineering and custom fabrication costs to a small fraction. You don't need to deliver a completed factory on a pallet to save costs (although that's possible with distributed small module reactors, as Asia is ramping up for).

treyd 2y ago
Which is why France has such strong nuclear supply, they decided going into it to hage standard designs.
- Retric 2y ago
  France’s nuclear is fully owned by the government. The subsidies are so huge there’s basically zero market forces in play on the supply side.
  - mpweiher 2y ago
    It's not subsidized. In fact, cheap nuclear electricity is used to subsidize other industries. The entire nuclear industry (construction, operation, support) cost France € 228 billion and produce 11000 TWh (by 2012). That's 2,07 cents/kWh. Not too shabby.
    - Retric 2y ago
      Your numbers are wildly off and not just from ignoring inflation when using poorly sourced numbers from 2012. Quick, how much did they spend on fuel over that timeframe? Well according to that estimate it was 0, so it’s hardly including the operating costs. To give some perspective: “In March 2023 France's Parliament formally approved the government's nuclear investment plan – by 402 votes in favor and 130 against – which considers the €52 billion construction of six new EPR-2 PWRs at three sites.” That’s not operations that’s just for construction of 6 reactors when they have 56 in operation and that’s interest free unlike US reactor where interest is included with construction costs. One year later that’s already been increased to 67.4 billion euros: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-lifts-cost-estimate-new-reactors-67-bln-euros-les-echos-2024-03-04/#:~:text=PARIS%2C%20March%204%20(Reuters),on%20Monday%2C%20citing%20unidentified%20sources https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-utility-edf-l.... France operated as a pay as you go system so they didn’t set money aside for the full cost of decommissioning their reactors etc. Last I checked there was some talk in 2017 of them setting aside 27 billion based on some ridiculously optimistic estimates but mostly the plan is just foist the costs onto future taxpayers.

qball 2y ago

>They can’t be made in a factory All nuclear power plants made since around 1980s or so have been made in factories. The US (and other nations) use them all the time for their submarines- defense concerns correctly override environmentalists (and the oil companies backing them financially). The problem is a solved one. We're rich enough to afford to tilt at windmills instead- for now, anyway.