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This is not a forum of geopolitics experts but I think this wars is the biggest threat we currently have for tech progress. If Russia takes over Ukraine next st

This is not a forum of geopolitics experts but I think this wars is the biggest threat we currently have for tech progress. If Russia takes over Ukraine next step would be proxy wars in Europe, breaking down EU/NATO coupled with US domestic politics turning nativist which will burn our future. This war must end one way or another sooner.

theGnuMe 2y ago
If Trump wins NATO is sol.
belter 2y ago
Depending who will win the next US presidential elections, the scenarios you highlight can come sooner one would even imagine. In Europe at the moment, there is only one real military power and that is France plus with a little help from the Nordics. The rest is almost non existent, and I am including the current German army. It's calculated they might currently be able to provide ammunition for maybe 15 days... "The state of the Bundeswehr is more dismal than ever" - https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/26/the-state-of-the-bundeswehr-is-more-dismal-than-ever https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/26/the-state-of-the... A US president hostile to NATO or compromised, would make for very concerning scenario's within months.... On other side, you have a country of 200 million, with a GDP that is almost 20% fully invested on weapons and ammunition production, currently fully on a path of war. Putin could get 2 million soldiers in 3 months in case of a general mobilization.
- avmich 2y ago
  > On other side, you have a country of 200 million https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen... Which country are you talking about?
  - belter 2y ago
    Ok 146 million...I was off a little bit...
- xenospn 2y ago
  3 million useless untrained unmotivated soldiers who are not good for much more than dying in droves.
  - belter 2y ago
    Unfortunately the current stalemate has transformed the war into something similar to World War I, and for this type of war those are the type cannon fodder you need to send in waves... "White House Worries Russia’s Momentum Is Changing Trajectory of Ukraine War" - https://archive.is/DchiK https://archive.is/DchiK
rightbyte 2y ago
Threat to tech progress? How is that a priority? If the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die. Dunno how many nines of the HN userbase but I guess atleast two? People talk about this in no way like it was reasoned about in the 90s and ... it is a bit concerning.
- belter 2y ago
  You can have a few hours warning, if you tag and track Peter Thiel private jet...if you see it heading to New Zealand...
  - dragonwriter 2y ago
    Not for long: https://gizmodo.com/congress-just-made-it-way-harder-to-track-taylor-swift-1851492383 https://gizmodo.com/congress-just-made-it-way-harder-to-trac...
- pylua 2y ago
  Is this really true? I hope the U.S. would not die. I do guess the fallout could not be contained. However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios.
  - rightbyte 2y ago
    > However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios. The instruction is to hide under a table. YMMW.
  - taskforcegemini 2y ago
    >However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios. if you have enough money you could build a big enough bunker. I don't think there is a plan for the general population? there are many abandoned military bunkers around the world, maybe they become fashionable again.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > if the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die America and Russia aren't going to war. Leadership may be nuts, but contrary to popular reporting Putin's war in Ukraine was--at least at its outset--popular among Russia's elite. Those elite are not suicidal. Putin is issuing China's final warnings [1]. Letting American weapons fired by the Ukrainian army hit Russian military targets inside Russia simply isn't a material escalation in proxy war terms. Even the U.S. Navy helping Ukraine with its air defence in respect of missiles and drones wouldn't be a true escalation; the history of proxy wars during the Cold War with the Russian state's predecessor showed that quite clearly. The escalation would be American missiles fired by Americans hitting anything in Russia. That's a hard line we didn't cross in the Cold War. It's a line both sides are excruciatingly respecting today. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning
beardyw 2y ago
> This war must end one way or another sooner Sorry, but this is detached from reality. If your country were invaded, would you give up just to make other people's lives a bit more comfortable?
- avmich 2y ago
  The war could end in mere months if the West would provide adequate supplies to Ukraine.
  - racional 2y ago
    This is unfortunately by no means assured.
    - avmich 2y ago
      It looks at least very reasonable. It's rarely argued that Russia has a severe disadvantage in conventional armaments compared to the West, or even USA alone; even Russian sources periodically admit that openly. It's also rather clear at this point that the war is the war of attrition, so supplies basically determine the results. West doesn't even need to have particular political will - the robust supplies with armaments will do the trick without anything else. No particular sets of sanctions, no diplomatic masterpieces, no boots on the ground are needed - just enough of supplies to Ukrainian army. This may be more problematic, though, than a combination of approaches. Which we see today. The combination, though, doesn't provide results particularly fast - it still is good, though, but not enough for reducing the war in time to some relatively short periods starting from now. Well, we're in the real world. It's not perfect.
      - XajniN 2y ago
        > It looks at least very reasonable. Only if you don’t know much about Russia. The outcome of the war depends almost solely on Russian willingness to fight. We are already two years into the two-week supply of Russian rockets. Edit: formatting
avmich 2y ago
> This is not a forum of geopolitics experts In democracies the ultimate power belongs to people, so it's at least good to know the opinion of them. For this particular war it looks like there's an overwhelming support of Ukraine in the world, including significant portion of people in Russia, especially if corrected for propaganda bias. In case of Ukraine losing - which frankly seems rather theoretical - it's doubtful Russia will have enough resources to immediately continue to other European territories. However, this bad case should be avoided with all seriousness, as it brings only negative results to everybody involved, including Russian people.

theGnuMe 2y ago

If Trump wins NATO is sol.

belter 2y ago

Depending who will win the next US presidential elections, the scenarios you highlight can come sooner one would even imagine. In Europe at the moment, there is only one real military power and that is France plus with a little help from the Nordics. The rest is almost non existent, and I am including the current German army. It's calculated they might currently be able to provide ammunition for maybe 15 days... "The state of the Bundeswehr is more dismal than ever" - https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/26/the-state-of-the-bundeswehr-is-more-dismal-than-ever https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/26/the-state-of-the... A US president hostile to NATO or compromised, would make for very concerning scenario's within months.... On other side, you have a country of 200 million, with a GDP that is almost 20% fully invested on weapons and ammunition production, currently fully on a path of war. Putin could get 2 million soldiers in 3 months in case of a general mobilization.

avmich 2y ago
> On other side, you have a country of 200 million https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen... Which country are you talking about?
- belter 2y ago
  Ok 146 million...I was off a little bit...
xenospn 2y ago
3 million useless untrained unmotivated soldiers who are not good for much more than dying in droves.
- belter 2y ago
  Unfortunately the current stalemate has transformed the war into something similar to World War I, and for this type of war those are the type cannon fodder you need to send in waves... "White House Worries Russia’s Momentum Is Changing Trajectory of Ukraine War" - https://archive.is/DchiK https://archive.is/DchiK

rightbyte 2y ago

Threat to tech progress? How is that a priority? If the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die. Dunno how many nines of the HN userbase but I guess atleast two? People talk about this in no way like it was reasoned about in the 90s and ... it is a bit concerning.

belter 2y ago
You can have a few hours warning, if you tag and track Peter Thiel private jet...if you see it heading to New Zealand...
- dragonwriter 2y ago
  Not for long: https://gizmodo.com/congress-just-made-it-way-harder-to-track-taylor-swift-1851492383 https://gizmodo.com/congress-just-made-it-way-harder-to-trac...
pylua 2y ago
Is this really true? I hope the U.S. would not die. I do guess the fallout could not be contained. However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios.
- rightbyte 2y ago
  > However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios. The instruction is to hide under a table. YMMW.
- taskforcegemini 2y ago
  >However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios. if you have enough money you could build a big enough bunker. I don't think there is a plan for the general population? there are many abandoned military bunkers around the world, maybe they become fashionable again.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> if the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die America and Russia aren't going to war. Leadership may be nuts, but contrary to popular reporting Putin's war in Ukraine was--at least at its outset--popular among Russia's elite. Those elite are not suicidal. Putin is issuing China's final warnings [1]. Letting American weapons fired by the Ukrainian army hit Russian military targets inside Russia simply isn't a material escalation in proxy war terms. Even the U.S. Navy helping Ukraine with its air defence in respect of missiles and drones wouldn't be a true escalation; the history of proxy wars during the Cold War with the Russian state's predecessor showed that quite clearly. The escalation would be American missiles fired by Americans hitting anything in Russia. That's a hard line we didn't cross in the Cold War. It's a line both sides are excruciatingly respecting today. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning

beardyw 2y ago

> This war must end one way or another sooner Sorry, but this is detached from reality. If your country were invaded, would you give up just to make other people's lives a bit more comfortable?

avmich 2y ago
The war could end in mere months if the West would provide adequate supplies to Ukraine.
- racional 2y ago
  This is unfortunately by no means assured.
  - avmich 2y ago
    It looks at least very reasonable. It's rarely argued that Russia has a severe disadvantage in conventional armaments compared to the West, or even USA alone; even Russian sources periodically admit that openly. It's also rather clear at this point that the war is the war of attrition, so supplies basically determine the results. West doesn't even need to have particular political will - the robust supplies with armaments will do the trick without anything else. No particular sets of sanctions, no diplomatic masterpieces, no boots on the ground are needed - just enough of supplies to Ukrainian army. This may be more problematic, though, than a combination of approaches. Which we see today. The combination, though, doesn't provide results particularly fast - it still is good, though, but not enough for reducing the war in time to some relatively short periods starting from now. Well, we're in the real world. It's not perfect.
    - XajniN 2y ago
      > It looks at least very reasonable. Only if you don’t know much about Russia. The outcome of the war depends almost solely on Russian willingness to fight. We are already two years into the two-week supply of Russian rockets. Edit: formatting

avmich 2y ago

> This is not a forum of geopolitics experts In democracies the ultimate power belongs to people, so it's at least good to know the opinion of them. For this particular war it looks like there's an overwhelming support of Ukraine in the world, including significant portion of people in Russia, especially if corrected for propaganda bias. In case of Ukraine losing - which frankly seems rather theoretical - it's doubtful Russia will have enough resources to immediately continue to other European territories. However, this bad case should be avoided with all seriousness, as it brings only negative results to everybody involved, including Russian people.