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I am just talking about scaling laws and the level of capex that big tech companies are doing. One hundred billion dollars are being invested this year to pursu

I am just talking about scaling laws and the level of capex that big tech companies are doing. One hundred billion dollars are being invested this year to pursue AI scaling laws. You can be excited, as I am, while also being bearish, as I am.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
If you look at the history of big technological breakthroughs, there is always an explosion of companies and money invested in the "new hotness" before things shake out and settle. Usually the vast majority of these companies go bankrupt, but that infrastructure spend sets up the ecosystem for growth going forward. Some examples: 1. Railroad companies in the second half of the 19th century. 2. Car companies in the early 20th century. 3. Telecom companies and investment in the 90s and early 2000s.
spiderfarmer 2y ago
Comments like yours contribute to the negative perception of Hacker News as a place where launching anything, no matter how great, innovative, smart, informative, usable, or admirable, is met with unreasonable criticism. Finding an angle to voice your critique doesn't automatically make it insightful.
- MP_1729 2y ago
  I am sure that people at OpenAI, particularly former YC CEO Sam Altman, will be fine, even if they read the bad stuff MP_1729 says around here.
- candiddevmike 2y ago
  What is unreasonable about that comment?
  - spiderfarmer 2y ago
    Moving the goalposts directly after someone scores a goal.
- barrell 2y ago
  Well, I for one am excited about this update, and skeptical about the AI scaling, and agree with everything said in the top comment. I saw the update, was a little like “meh,” and was relieved to see that some people had the same reaction as me. OP raised some pretty good points without directly criticizing the update. It’s a good balance the the top comments (calling this *absolutely magic and stunning*) and all of Twitter I wish more feedback on HN was like OPs
- layer8 2y ago
  It’s reasonable criticism, and more useful than all the hype.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

If you look at the history of big technological breakthroughs, there is always an explosion of companies and money invested in the "new hotness" before things shake out and settle. Usually the vast majority of these companies go bankrupt, but that infrastructure spend sets up the ecosystem for growth going forward. Some examples: 1. Railroad companies in the second half of the 19th century. 2. Car companies in the early 20th century. 3. Telecom companies and investment in the 90s and early 2000s.

spiderfarmer 2y ago

Comments like yours contribute to the negative perception of Hacker News as a place where launching anything, no matter how great, innovative, smart, informative, usable, or admirable, is met with unreasonable criticism. Finding an angle to voice your critique doesn't automatically make it insightful.

MP_1729 2y ago
I am sure that people at OpenAI, particularly former YC CEO Sam Altman, will be fine, even if they read the bad stuff MP_1729 says around here.
candiddevmike 2y ago
What is unreasonable about that comment?
- spiderfarmer 2y ago
  Moving the goalposts directly after someone scores a goal.
barrell 2y ago
Well, I for one am excited about this update, and skeptical about the AI scaling, and agree with everything said in the top comment. I saw the update, was a little like “meh,” and was relieved to see that some people had the same reaction as me. OP raised some pretty good points without directly criticizing the update. It’s a good balance the the top comments (calling this *absolutely magic and stunning*) and all of Twitter I wish more feedback on HN was like OPs
layer8 2y ago
It’s reasonable criticism, and more useful than all the hype.