5 ms·
is it better than prophet from meta?
by dangerclose 2y ago
is it better than prophet from meta?
- VHRanger 2y agoI imagine they're both worse than good old exponential smoothing or SARIMAX.
- Pseudocrat 2y agoDepends on use case. Hybrid approaches have been dominating the M-Competitions, but there are generally small percentage differences in variance of statistical models vs machine learning models. And exponentially higher cost for ML models.
- VHRanger 2y agoAt the end of the day, if training or doing inference on the ML model is massively more costly in time or compute, you'll iterate much less with it. I also think it's a dead end to try to have foundation models for "time series" - it's a class of data! Like when people tried to have foundation models for any general graph type. You could make foundation models for data within that type - eg. meteorological time series, or social network graphs. But for the abstract class type it seems like a dead end.
- rockinghigh 2y agoThese models may be helpful if they speed up convergence when fine tuned on business-specific time series.
- dangerclose 2y agoso this TimesFM is also in the same category as TimeGPT from nixtlaverse?
- SpaceManNabs 2y agois there a ranking of the methods that actually work on benchmark datasets? Hybrid, "ML" or old stats? I remember eamonnkeogh doing this on r/ML a few years ago.
- efrank3 2y agoProphet was pretty bad so yes, but it doesn't seem much better than ARIMA
- dangerclose 2y agowhat about neuralprophet came after prophet? some companies like mixpanel mentioned in their documentation that they are using prophet for forecasting/anomaly detection