6 ms·

The critical part of this article is this: "But in June 2023, Musk said at an energy conference that "there just weren't enough batteries" for Tesla to reach "

The critical part of this article is this: "But in June 2023, Musk said at an energy conference that "there just weren't enough batteries" for Tesla to reach "volume production" of the truck." It looks like battery production is the major constraint on Teslas endeavours. Someone at Tesla clearly did the math on ROI-per-cell and decided that Semis just don't pay as well as Cybertrucks or Powerwalls. That's why they're starving the Semi operation until they can spin up more battery production.

Workaccount2 2y ago
The craziest thing about Tesla is that people still believe what musk says. I agree it makes sense that battery production is the limiting factor, but my ability to trust what Musk says is close to zero.
- harborsong 2y ago
  The craziest thing is, regardless how people feel about politics, Musk has achieved a lot for technology yet people in technology forums disparage him. I guess politics trumps technology.
  - jshen 2y ago
    Integrity matters. He has none. You can't say things that aren't true over and over and expect to be believed the next time.
    - brianbreslin 2y ago
      [flagged]
  - krapp 2y ago
    "Achieving a lot for technology" does not put one above criticism.
  - uuddlrlrbaba 2y ago
    The parroted introduction has me reading this comment in bad faith, but I'll bite anyway. What are some of his personal tech achievements? Emphasis on personal.
  - PaywallBuster 2y ago
    Nonetheless I have to agree with both you and parent reply it's possible if it wasn't or trade wars it would've been easy to source batteries from china but who can control geo politics :)
    - rchaud 2y ago
      But Musk himself has said that American EV makers can't compete against Chinese EVs without trade barriers. Barriers that western governments have been more than happy to establish. > "If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world," he said. "They're extremely good." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-chinese-ev-firms-will-demolish-rivals-without-trade-barriers-2024-01-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
  - kibwen 2y ago
    > The craziest thing is I wouldn't call it crazy to point to someone with a documented history of lying and say that their word can't be trusted. Rather, that's called basic pattern recognition.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - rchaud 2y ago
      One man's lie is another man's "4D chess move".
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - cool_dude85 2y ago
        The dancing robot has to be more than a 4D chess move. That's gotta be at least 7 or 8 D chess.
  - perfect_wave 2y ago
    Or maybe, just maybe, it’s that the dude spews whatever out of his mouth and the broader public and media take him at his word when time again its been seen that his word doesn’t mean shit.
  - colingoodman 2y ago
    He has a notorious habit of overpromising and underdelivering. I thought that habit of his was well established even before he became so vocally political.
    - astrodust 2y ago
      You have to wonder if working for four or five different companies while, allegedly, being on _all the drugs_ has an impact on his performance. If Musk ran Apple we'd still be waiting on the iPhone XS, though he'd insist it'll be ready by "end of year", a phone that launched around the time Musk was crowing about these trucks.
    - jdewerd 2y ago
      It was, but it was the politics that swung the opinion pendulum from pathological "admire wins, ignore losses" to pathological "ignore wins, disparage losses."
  - willsmith72 2y ago
    both are true. he's achieved amazing things, seriously pushing technology forwards he also makes outlandish public claims which are ridiculous at the time and get worse with age. you can appreciate what he's done while simultaneously believing 0% of what leaves his mouth
  - lukefreiler 2y ago
    As an early owner of a Model S with FSD, he's also made a lot of objectively false claims that burned customers and have nothing to do with politics.
  - bradjohnson 2y ago
    He successfully marketed and monetized an industry that already existed and would continue to exist without him, then reinvested in that industry to make himself more money. The way you and some others talk about him you would think he invented batteries and was the first one to discover you can use electricity to make a car move.
- theultdev 2y ago
  Man the critics here about deadlines is astounding. I wonder how many deadlines that people miss here, and that's usually just pure software, no materials.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Vendors missing deadlines on contracts is a valid reason for contracts being terminated, renewals being cancelled, and even litigation over breach of contract or even misrepresentation (depending on how angry the customer is). There's a reason why PepsiCo partners are moving to Daimler now.
    - theultdev 2y ago
      Production of EVs is hard. There's a reason why Ford lost 1.3B in the first quarter of 2024 ($3B in 2023) on EVs and is slowing production. Overall Tesla is producing more EVs than any American company by far. Yes, meeting the semi production goal would have been nice, but I'd rather consumer car production be prioritized.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        That doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years. The fact that PepsiCo leaked this to Reuters itself means they are on the warpath right now (eg. probably trying to strong-arm a significant refund and cost reduction, or setting up the paper trail needed to begin litigation over breach of contract).
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years I mean, it almost might. The problem isn't the underdelivery. It's Musk's loss of credibility. When he says it's about battery production, it might be about battery production, or it might be that he randomly changed the design at the last minute.
- detourdog 2y ago
  I expect this news to have a positive effect. I wonder if an individual might own so much stock that they can overwhelm the short market for small durations. The price jump yesterday made no sense to me.
- aaron695 2y ago
  [dead]
adrr 2y ago
What batteries are in the semi-trucks? I would assume it isn't even Tesla's battery but the LFP batteries from BYD and CATL for faster charging, and longevity. Powerwalls are LFP batteries.
- Symbiote 2y ago
  And "BYD has deployed more than 60,000 electric buses that are currently operating around the world" so 1,000 semi trucks isn't so much. There are more full-electric buses running in London than Tesla had orders for the Semi.
  - FireBeyond 2y ago
    Tesla fans are like horses with blinders. In this submission alone you have multiple people acting like commercial-sized electric vehicles are something the world has never seen, let alone mass produced, so we need to cut Tesla and Musk some slack (some even feel free to throw in a puerile, childish, "feel free to do better yourself or show us what you've done").
  - atwrk 2y ago
    And the BYD ebus started in 2010.
- moogly 2y ago
  Only the newest version of Powerwall (v3) is LFP.
specialist 2y ago
I'm sure there's some truth to your speculation. Yes and: Perhaps the Semi uses cells which are supply constrained. The Limiting Factor does updates on which models use which cells, where those cells are made, their current chemistry, and how cell supply might impact vehicle production numbers. Analysis based on data gleaned from public data, so uncertainty is stated as needed. My own quick search didn't yield any answers.
serial_dev 2y ago
That's why he is happy that the US can "coup whoever we want". Damned be those who built their countries on top of our lithium!
hedora 2y ago
As a counterpoint, we tried to get a tesla roof. Their repeated broken promises meant that we went with competitors (you can only delay installing a roof for so long...), and we simply don't trust Tesla to do anything at this point. Most people I know are buying LG (small system) or Enphase (large system) batteries instead, or going with other competitors (Anker announced something that looks pretty sweet). Also, Powerwalls are notoriously unreliable compared to those other brands; our local Tesla installer said they refuse to install them except when they are acting as a Tesla subcontractor, and pushed us to enphase or generac. For semis, they took deposits then didn't deliver, so marquee customers are complaining publicly and buying semis from competitors. For solar roofs, we talked to their competitors, and they were all backlogged because they were absorbing cancelled tesla contracts. Tesla is great at marketing and making the sale, but then letting their competitors close out the deal.

Workaccount2 2y ago

The craziest thing about Tesla is that people still believe what musk says. I agree it makes sense that battery production is the limiting factor, but my ability to trust what Musk says is close to zero.

harborsong 2y ago
The craziest thing is, regardless how people feel about politics, Musk has achieved a lot for technology yet people in technology forums disparage him. I guess politics trumps technology.
- jshen 2y ago
  Integrity matters. He has none. You can't say things that aren't true over and over and expect to be believed the next time.
  - brianbreslin 2y ago
    [flagged]
- krapp 2y ago
  "Achieving a lot for technology" does not put one above criticism.
- uuddlrlrbaba 2y ago
  The parroted introduction has me reading this comment in bad faith, but I'll bite anyway. What are some of his personal tech achievements? Emphasis on personal.
- PaywallBuster 2y ago
  Nonetheless I have to agree with both you and parent reply it's possible if it wasn't or trade wars it would've been easy to source batteries from china but who can control geo politics :)
  - rchaud 2y ago
    But Musk himself has said that American EV makers can't compete against Chinese EVs without trade barriers. Barriers that western governments have been more than happy to establish. > "If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world," he said. "They're extremely good." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-chinese-ev-firms-will-demolish-rivals-without-trade-barriers-2024-01-25/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
- kibwen 2y ago
  > The craziest thing is I wouldn't call it crazy to point to someone with a documented history of lying and say that their word can't be trusted. Rather, that's called basic pattern recognition.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - rchaud 2y ago
    One man's lie is another man's "4D chess move".
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - cool_dude85 2y ago
      The dancing robot has to be more than a 4D chess move. That's gotta be at least 7 or 8 D chess.
- perfect_wave 2y ago
  Or maybe, just maybe, it’s that the dude spews whatever out of his mouth and the broader public and media take him at his word when time again its been seen that his word doesn’t mean shit.
- colingoodman 2y ago
  He has a notorious habit of overpromising and underdelivering. I thought that habit of his was well established even before he became so vocally political.
  - astrodust 2y ago
    You have to wonder if working for four or five different companies while, allegedly, being on _all the drugs_ has an impact on his performance. If Musk ran Apple we'd still be waiting on the iPhone XS, though he'd insist it'll be ready by "end of year", a phone that launched around the time Musk was crowing about these trucks.
  - jdewerd 2y ago
    It was, but it was the politics that swung the opinion pendulum from pathological "admire wins, ignore losses" to pathological "ignore wins, disparage losses."
- willsmith72 2y ago
  both are true. he's achieved amazing things, seriously pushing technology forwards he also makes outlandish public claims which are ridiculous at the time and get worse with age. you can appreciate what he's done while simultaneously believing 0% of what leaves his mouth
- lukefreiler 2y ago
  As an early owner of a Model S with FSD, he's also made a lot of objectively false claims that burned customers and have nothing to do with politics.
- bradjohnson 2y ago
  He successfully marketed and monetized an industry that already existed and would continue to exist without him, then reinvested in that industry to make himself more money. The way you and some others talk about him you would think he invented batteries and was the first one to discover you can use electricity to make a car move.
theultdev 2y ago
Man the critics here about deadlines is astounding. I wonder how many deadlines that people miss here, and that's usually just pure software, no materials.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Vendors missing deadlines on contracts is a valid reason for contracts being terminated, renewals being cancelled, and even litigation over breach of contract or even misrepresentation (depending on how angry the customer is). There's a reason why PepsiCo partners are moving to Daimler now.
  - theultdev 2y ago
    Production of EVs is hard. There's a reason why Ford lost 1.3B in the first quarter of 2024 ($3B in 2023) on EVs and is slowing production. Overall Tesla is producing more EVs than any American company by far. Yes, meeting the semi production goal would have been nice, but I'd rather consumer car production be prioritized.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      That doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years. The fact that PepsiCo leaked this to Reuters itself means they are on the warpath right now (eg. probably trying to strong-arm a significant refund and cost reduction, or setting up the paper trail needed to begin litigation over breach of contract).
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years I mean, it almost might. The problem isn't the underdelivery. It's Musk's loss of credibility. When he says it's about battery production, it might be about battery production, or it might be that he randomly changed the design at the last minute.
detourdog 2y ago
I expect this news to have a positive effect. I wonder if an individual might own so much stock that they can overwhelm the short market for small durations. The price jump yesterday made no sense to me.
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]

adrr 2y ago

What batteries are in the semi-trucks? I would assume it isn't even Tesla's battery but the LFP batteries from BYD and CATL for faster charging, and longevity. Powerwalls are LFP batteries.

Symbiote 2y ago
And "BYD has deployed more than 60,000 electric buses that are currently operating around the world" so 1,000 semi trucks isn't so much. There are more full-electric buses running in London than Tesla had orders for the Semi.
- FireBeyond 2y ago
  Tesla fans are like horses with blinders. In this submission alone you have multiple people acting like commercial-sized electric vehicles are something the world has never seen, let alone mass produced, so we need to cut Tesla and Musk some slack (some even feel free to throw in a puerile, childish, "feel free to do better yourself or show us what you've done").
- atwrk 2y ago
  And the BYD ebus started in 2010.
moogly 2y ago
Only the newest version of Powerwall (v3) is LFP.

specialist 2y ago

I'm sure there's some truth to your speculation. Yes and: Perhaps the Semi uses cells which are supply constrained. The Limiting Factor does updates on which models use which cells, where those cells are made, their current chemistry, and how cell supply might impact vehicle production numbers. Analysis based on data gleaned from public data, so uncertainty is stated as needed. My own quick search didn't yield any answers.

serial_dev 2y ago

That's why he is happy that the US can "coup whoever we want". Damned be those who built their countries on top of our lithium!

hedora 2y ago

As a counterpoint, we tried to get a tesla roof. Their repeated broken promises meant that we went with competitors (you can only delay installing a roof for so long...), and we simply don't trust Tesla to do anything at this point. Most people I know are buying LG (small system) or Enphase (large system) batteries instead, or going with other competitors (Anker announced something that looks pretty sweet). Also, Powerwalls are notoriously unreliable compared to those other brands; our local Tesla installer said they refuse to install them except when they are acting as a Tesla subcontractor, and pushed us to enphase or generac. For semis, they took deposits then didn't deliver, so marquee customers are complaining publicly and buying semis from competitors. For solar roofs, we talked to their competitors, and they were all backlogged because they were absorbing cancelled tesla contracts. Tesla is great at marketing and making the sale, but then letting their competitors close out the deal.