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For what it's worth, "play money" betting site Manifold is currently at a 69% chance of sale versus 31% of shutting down. https://manifold.markets/mint/conditi
by mhardcastle 2y ago
For what it's worth, "play money" betting site Manifold is currently at a 69% chance of sale versus 31% of shutting down.
https://manifold.markets/mint/conditional-on-the-tiktok-ban-passi https://manifold.markets/mint/conditional-on-the-tiktok-ban-...
- ok123456 2y agoWhat about no sale yet they continue to operate because the ban is not enforceable either legally or technically?
- schoen 2y agoFor example, if they (or some party that's directly targeted like Apple or Cloudflare) gets a U.S. court to enjoin enforcement of some of the provisions.
- intrasight 2y agoPlug pulling is easy technically. I think plug pulling legally is also easy. Bytedance just doesn't have a strong defense.
- ok123456 2y agoThe defense is the bill of rights.
- arduanika 2y agoBuzzkill! Everybody else on here was having fun opining that it's 100% certain that China pulls the plug, or conversely that a sale will happen, and you just had to point out that it's an empirical question where nobody can read the CCP's mind. Boo.
- dnissley 2y agoThere's another market with more options where "ban will be rendered unenforceable by courts" is leading: https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/tiktok-endgame-which-will-happen-fi?r=RHlsYW5OaXNzbGV5 https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/tiktok-endgame-which-w...