9 ms·
I think youre kind of right, its not really meaningful to know “im right about things that happen 5% of the time!”. But if a lot of things you bet on structural
by omeze 3y ago
I think youre kind of right, its not really meaningful to know “im right about things that happen 5% of the time!”. But if a lot of things you bet on structurally happen to be low probability and of the same type (eg you bet on one type of catastrophic event like pandemic, crop disease, or war etc) then its useful
- anonymous-panda 3y agoOr you’ve just learned how to optimize your score on the game you’re playing but the game isn’t actually about predicting the future.
- tunesmith 3y agoProper scoring rules like Brier mean that any attempt to optimize your score by definition mean that you are improving your calibration.