5 ms·
It is meaningless to put any number on an event like this. Unless you can find the very large number of universes where that same situation arises, you can neve
by ManitobaForMe 3y ago
It is meaningless to put any number on an event like this. Unless you can find the very large number of universes where that same situation arises, you can never know if you were right.
Maybe a prediction market-based approach can weigh the beliefs of people about the event, but that doesn't mean it's a real probability.
Probability theory has given people the mistaken belief that everything is like a card or dice game. It isn't.
- Vecr 3y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenster... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference Maybe everything's not a card game, but you really don't want to find yourself in a situation that isn't.