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Bottom 25th percentile has been zero or negative growth at least back to 1998. This would include minimum wage and support the original argument. This doesn't s

Bottom 25th percentile has been zero or negative growth at least back to 1998. This would include minimum wage and support the original argument. This doesn't seem to correct for inflation, so zero or negative wage growth is punished completely by inflation. source: https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab3 https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab3

ta2234234242 3y ago
Sure but not everyone stays in the bottom 25%. College students would be one category that you would expect this to be true of. I was certainly in the poverty level in college, but not anymore. What we really care about are the people who are persistently in poverty and whether or not that number grows or shrinks. If it shrinks the economy is helping real people, if it's not, it's helping the well off.
- janalsncm 3y ago
  I don’t think college students would be counted in this metric because it only counts people who want a full time job. A full time college student likely does not.
  - ta2234234242 3y ago
    You've never known college students to work full time jobs and take night school?
    - janalsncm 3y ago
      I’m not saying it doesn’t happen I’m just saying it’s not a large enough demographic to explain why the bottom 25% should go down.
      - ta2234234242 3y ago
        You didn't say that. I said it was only one category. There are perhaps others. Again, you need to look the number of people in poverty. Is it growing or shrinking? That's the true metric of an economy. When you get to 50% or more in poverty, that's revolution territory.
- CardenB 3y ago
  So you are arguing that there is increasing mobility? Or do you argue that people are bouncing between jobs with lower wage growth and higher wage growth, so the bottom 25% of wages are getting worse and worse, yet they are only temporary? It seems pretty clear that 25% of earners experience no growth or negative growth YoY while 25% of earners see wage growth that outpaces inflation. Unless they are swapping places constantly, it's not really healthy for this to occur over a long period of time (as it has).
  - ta2234234242 3y ago
    Are you arguing there's not increasing mobility, with this new fangled internet and the series of tubes and what have you? Upward mobility has never been more available across all income brackets. Again... you want to look at the number of people in poverty. That's the true metric of an economy, not the unemployment number.
    - CardenB 3y ago
      True metric of an economy is not just poverty rate. I can have 3x the income of monthly food budget (poverty threshold). What happens when housing per month is also 3x the cost of food per month? Poverty threshold is a poor indicator of the economic health. Poverty can lower while the ability for the average citizen to support a family continues to drop. > Are you arguing there's not increasing mobility, with this new fangled internet and the series of tubes and what have you? That's not an argument. Technological improvements can result in consolidation of capital and rising inequality. Something like that would be indicated by... top 25% of wage earners outpacing inflation while bottom 25% continue to stagnate or fall behind. EDIT: The last poverty rate publication showed the supplemental poverty rate rising (taking into account more factors that traditional poverty rate). Previous to the pandemic, they were largely correlated. We will have to wait until the 2024 results to see if the inversion holds true. source: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-280.pdf https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...
      - ta2234234242 3y ago

ta2234234242 3y ago

Sure but not everyone stays in the bottom 25%. College students would be one category that you would expect this to be true of. I was certainly in the poverty level in college, but not anymore. What we really care about are the people who are persistently in poverty and whether or not that number grows or shrinks. If it shrinks the economy is helping real people, if it's not, it's helping the well off.

janalsncm 3y ago
I don’t think college students would be counted in this metric because it only counts people who want a full time job. A full time college student likely does not.
- ta2234234242 3y ago
  You've never known college students to work full time jobs and take night school?
  - janalsncm 3y ago
    I’m not saying it doesn’t happen I’m just saying it’s not a large enough demographic to explain why the bottom 25% should go down.
    - ta2234234242 3y ago
      You didn't say that. I said it was only one category. There are perhaps others. Again, you need to look the number of people in poverty. Is it growing or shrinking? That's the true metric of an economy. When you get to 50% or more in poverty, that's revolution territory.
CardenB 3y ago
So you are arguing that there is increasing mobility? Or do you argue that people are bouncing between jobs with lower wage growth and higher wage growth, so the bottom 25% of wages are getting worse and worse, yet they are only temporary? It seems pretty clear that 25% of earners experience no growth or negative growth YoY while 25% of earners see wage growth that outpaces inflation. Unless they are swapping places constantly, it's not really healthy for this to occur over a long period of time (as it has).
- ta2234234242 3y ago
  Are you arguing there's not increasing mobility, with this new fangled internet and the series of tubes and what have you? Upward mobility has never been more available across all income brackets. Again... you want to look at the number of people in poverty. That's the true metric of an economy, not the unemployment number.
  - CardenB 3y ago
    True metric of an economy is not just poverty rate. I can have 3x the income of monthly food budget (poverty threshold). What happens when housing per month is also 3x the cost of food per month? Poverty threshold is a poor indicator of the economic health. Poverty can lower while the ability for the average citizen to support a family continues to drop. > Are you arguing there's not increasing mobility, with this new fangled internet and the series of tubes and what have you? That's not an argument. Technological improvements can result in consolidation of capital and rising inequality. Something like that would be indicated by... top 25% of wage earners outpacing inflation while bottom 25% continue to stagnate or fall behind. EDIT: The last poverty rate publication showed the supplemental poverty rate rising (taking into account more factors that traditional poverty rate). Previous to the pandemic, they were largely correlated. We will have to wait until the 2024 results to see if the inversion holds true. source: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-280.pdf https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...
    - ta2234234242 3y ago