17 ms·

OpenAI has no Moat

• rvz 3y ago
  This. He’s right you know. OpenAI is extremely overvalued and Google is closing their lead rapidly.
  • fnordpiglet 3y ago
    Is there any meaningful valuation on OpenAI? It’s not for sale, there is no market. Google … has no ability to commercialize anything. Their only commercial successes are ads and YouTube. Doing deceptive launches and flailing around with Gemini isn’t helping their product prospects. I wouldn’t take a bet between open ai and anyone, but I also wouldn’t take a bet on Google succeeding commercially on anything other than pervasive surveillance and adware.
    • rvz 3y ago
      > Is there any meaningful valuation on OpenAI? It’s not for sale, there is no market. Its shares are already for sale on private markets for accredited investors and for a valuation of over $100BN lead by Thrive Capital. > Google … has no ability to commercialize anything. Absolute nonsense. So Google Cloud, Android (Play Store) are not already commercialized? You well know that they are. > Doing deceptive launches and flailing around with Gemini isn’t helping their product prospects. Gemini already caught up to (and surpassed) GPT-4V. What is your point? > I wouldn’t take a bet between open ai and anyone, but I also wouldn’t take a bet on Google succeeding commercially on anything other than pervasive surveillance and adware. OpenAI's greatest competitor is Google DeepMind which has the advantage of Google's infrastructure to scale up their models quickly and they have direct access to Google's billions. OpenAI cannot afford to make mistakes or delay anything and a single mistake can cost them hundreds of millions of dollars. The majority of the investment from Microsoft is in Azure credits and not in dollars. [0] [0] https://www.semafor.com/article/11/18/2023/openai-has-received-just-a-fraction-of-microsofts-10-billion-investment https://www.semafor.com/article/11/18/2023/openai-has-receiv...
• jklinger410 3y ago
  They only have a head start, and the lead is closing
• seydor 3y ago
  hence why it's Open
• wrsh07 3y ago
  A reference to the good doc: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-ne... While I'm linking semianalysis, though, it's probably worth talking about how everyone except Google is GPU poor: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-gemini-eats-the-world-gemini https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-gemini-eats-the-world-... (paid) > Whether Google has the stomach to put these models out publicly without neutering their creativity or their existing business model is a different discussion. Google has a serious GPU (well, TPU) build out, and the fact that they're able to train moe models on it means there aren't any technical barriers preventing them from competing at the highest levels
  • Keyframe 3y ago
    they also have internet.zip and all of its repo history as well as usenet and mails etc.. which others don't.
• anonyfox 3y ago
  but GPT-4 is nearly a year old now, I'd wait for the next release of OAI before judgement. Probably rather soonish now I would expect.
  • jpeter 3y ago
    You were right i guess :)