5 ms·

40% odds would be the best lottery ever.

by jcoder 14y ago

cheald 14y ago
That's 40% odds to break even, not to hit the jackpot.
- dripton 14y ago
  Which is still way better than any lottery I've heard of.
  - tlrobinson 14y ago
    I'm not sure that's true. http://users.stat.umn.edu/~geyer/lottery/ http://users.stat.umn.edu/~geyer/lottery/ Summing up our conclusions, it's much better to play in a week with a big jackpot than a small one (duh!) but even in a week with a near record jackpot (second largest in history) the lottery is only almost but not quite a break even proposition.
    - polshaw 14y ago
      Interesting, but this does not mean a 40% (or better) chance of break-even.
      - deleted 14y ago
        [deleted]
  - planetguy 14y ago
    Really? Because if so I'd be happy to sell you lottery tickets in which you have a forty percent chance of breaking even...
    - warmfuzzykitten 14y ago
      Yes, that's why the state you live in is happy to sell you lottery tickets. There's a sucker born every minute.
      - acangiano 14y ago
        Mathematically, I agree. Psychologically, many people are paying for the fantasy and it may be what helps them cope with an otherwise pretty tough life. The idea/fantasy that "all this could change one day thanks to the lottery" may very well be worth the ticket price to those people. I'll hold my judgment and not call them suckers on this basis.
  - RobAtticus 14y ago
    Scratch-offs? Certainly the payout isn't as great, but not all of the 40% is hitting a big jackpot either.
- raverbashing 14y ago
  These are actually very good odds "risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations. In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax) For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off. Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad

40% odds would be the best lottery ever.

by jcoder 14y ago

40% odds would be the best lottery ever.

cheald 14y ago

That's 40% odds to break even, not to hit the jackpot.

dripton 14y ago
Which is still way better than any lottery I've heard of.
- tlrobinson 14y ago
  I'm not sure that's true. http://users.stat.umn.edu/~geyer/lottery/ http://users.stat.umn.edu/~geyer/lottery/ Summing up our conclusions, it's much better to play in a week with a big jackpot than a small one (duh!) but even in a week with a near record jackpot (second largest in history) the lottery is only almost but not quite a break even proposition.
  - polshaw 14y ago
    Interesting, but this does not mean a 40% (or better) chance of break-even.
    - deleted 14y ago
      [deleted]
- planetguy 14y ago
  Really? Because if so I'd be happy to sell you lottery tickets in which you have a forty percent chance of breaking even...
  - warmfuzzykitten 14y ago
    Yes, that's why the state you live in is happy to sell you lottery tickets. There's a sucker born every minute.
    - acangiano 14y ago
      Mathematically, I agree. Psychologically, many people are paying for the fantasy and it may be what helps them cope with an otherwise pretty tough life. The idea/fantasy that "all this could change one day thanks to the lottery" may very well be worth the ticket price to those people. I'll hold my judgment and not call them suckers on this basis.
- RobAtticus 14y ago
  Scratch-offs? Certainly the payout isn't as great, but not all of the 40% is hitting a big jackpot either.
raverbashing 14y ago
These are actually very good odds "risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations. In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax) For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off. Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad