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Just wait and see what happens when charging infra becomes more expensive than existing gas infrastructure. I've anecdotally heard from Canadians that they are

Just wait and see what happens when charging infra becomes more expensive than existing gas infrastructure. I've anecdotally heard from Canadians that they are approximating diminishing gains having an electric car, running costs-wise at least.

xcrunner529 3y ago
If you’re charging constantly at stations and not your house, maybe. Otherwise it’s like running your dryer. So just FUD.
- monkeynotes 3y ago
  So you think that the challenges keeping grid capacity and stability up with demand are FUD? I think they are reasonable concerns, and seeing early signs of that already here. Our power costs are on track to go up significantly over the coming years, mainly because of capacity. Building new clean, scalable energy is expensive, someone has to pay for that demand. I think these are very real, and reasonable problems on the horizon. And like I said, these costs are already being noticed. My power bill is going up by over 10% in the next two years for capacity reasons. They are paying people to put in more efficient electric heating, so we are using less and paying more. I know this is info about my own region but Europe is also heading toward these problems on a wider scale: https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/growing-demand-puts-eu-electricity-grid-under-pressure/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/gro... https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-stories/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto... Also "Otherwise it’s like running your dryer". It is not, at all. If the cost of running my dryer goes up 10% that's not a big deal. Running my car at a 10% increased cost is significant. If my whole neighbourhood gets home at 5pm and plugs in, the grid would fall apart here.
  - mixmastamyk 3y ago
    We all can share in the costs of electricity, something centralized and 99% of us need, and that need isn't going away. Fewer of us need gasoline. E-cars almost always have charge scheduling built-in, to charge when cheapest. Here it is after 8 or 9PM for example.
    - monkeynotes 3y ago
      You didn't really acknowledge the citations or my overall point. "E-cars almost always have charge scheduling built-in, to charge when cheapest" if everyone charges when it's cheapest, it will no longer be cheapest. Demand drives cost.
      - bluGill 3y ago
        The schedule car be changed. Though the early evening time period has a lot of spare capacity for a lot of people to charge without changing rates. That is when it tends to be windiest and so those wind turbines which they are trying to size for times of day with otherwise more demand while there is less wind as plenty of supply for your cars. (solar similar analysis but a different time when it is as peak)
        monkeynotes 3y ago
        Talk to me about how that works when 80% of people are charging every day. That spare capacity goes away as everyone economically chases it to the point of saturation. Everyone can change their schedule and they will all go for the cheapest, which will normalize power prices across the board, AKA no cheap power windows.
        bluGill 3y ago
        Cars are only a small part of the total energy pie, and EVs are a lot more efficient: even with 100% charging the cheap power window won't go away. It won't be as cheap, but most uses of cars are flexible enough to charge during the low price window whenever that happens to be, and the window is large enough to keep the prices down.
        monkeynotes 3y ago
        > Cars are only a small part of the total energy pie If 80% of US drivers switched to electric vehicles, the total annual electricity consumption would be approximately 1,013,472,000,000 kWh (or about 1.01 trillion kWh). This calculation is based on the assumptions of an average annual mileage of 13,500 miles per vehicle, an average electric consumption of 0.34 kWh per mile, and a total of approximately 276 million vehicles in the US. As a contrast, today's total output of power in the US is 4 to 4.5 trillion kWh. So capacity needs to increase 1/4 which is not trivial. Caveat here is we keep the same efficiency in EVs.
- ralph84 3y ago
  It’s not FUD, it’s reality in California where even off-peak electricity is over $0.40 per kWh. People buy EVs in California because they’re a luxury good, not because they save money on gas.
  - mixmastamyk 3y ago
    .20/.26 with LADWP: https://www.solar.com/learn/understanding-ladwp-electric-rates/ https://www.solar.com/learn/understanding-ladwp-electric-rat... They also have a 2.5 cent discount for EVs evenings, nights, and weekends.
    - monkeynotes 3y ago
      That discount will not perpetuate infinitely. It facilitates people onboarding to EVs, but it has nothing to do with long-term infrastructure problems on the horizon as this stuff scales up to being the status quo for how people move around.
      - mixmastamyk 3y ago
        2.5 cents is not much compared to what grandparent was complaining about, 40 cents. And when capacity is strained, guess what? They'll build more. Your defeatism (elsewhere in the thread) is a bit tiring. On the other hand, once people decided to go to the Moon. They did it and returned safely! But according to you building a power plant and laying another set of cables per region is an insurmountable problem. Add that and solar panels at home and work parking lots... done.
- nightski 3y ago
  Running your dryer for 25 hours vs. a single charge of the car maybe...
  - xcrunner529 3y ago
    Very few people are maxing out range and charging full every night.
owenwil 3y ago
I don't think this is true. I live in Canada and the worst costs involved in charging my Tesla at a supercharger are maybe $20 for a full 'tank' but compared with $100+ for a gas car given gas prices here there's no way this is true. Here in BC there's a ton of charging competition too, so you can find far cheaper than superchargers—plenty of places where I live offer free fast charging right now if you look for them. Also, most of the time you're charging at home. In BC, electricity prices are $0.09/kWh... so dirt cheap.
- bluGill 3y ago
  I don't know what gas prices are like in Canada, but I'd expect about $40 to fill a car of Tesla size in the US. (from empty it might get up to $50). Yes gas is more, but not that much more. I also expect most people are charging at home for much lower electric rates.
- monkeynotes 3y ago
  BC hydro does not reflect the whole country. In NB we pay close to $.14/kWh, and as I said that's going up this year, and the next. PEI and NS are even more, so already today we are seeing ~$40 a charge. That's with just a handful of people driving EVs. Our province needs another power station, we sell a lot of power to Maine. Across the border in Maine it's ~.36/kWh which is getting close to your $100 a charge, granted Maine is not Canada. As electricity demand goes up, gas demand will go down and according to economics it will just get cheaper.
- rightbyte 3y ago
  20USD for 50 kWh of electricity us more expansive than gasoline. 1USD per 10 kWh of gasoline. Efficiency about lets say 33%.
hotpotamus 3y ago
I would think charging infra would tend towards being cheaper as it's built out, if only because you don't need enormous tanker trucks trundling around cities distributing the fuel - running electric lines is almost one-and-done in comparison.

xcrunner529 3y ago

If you’re charging constantly at stations and not your house, maybe. Otherwise it’s like running your dryer. So just FUD.

monkeynotes 3y ago
So you think that the challenges keeping grid capacity and stability up with demand are FUD? I think they are reasonable concerns, and seeing early signs of that already here. Our power costs are on track to go up significantly over the coming years, mainly because of capacity. Building new clean, scalable energy is expensive, someone has to pay for that demand. I think these are very real, and reasonable problems on the horizon. And like I said, these costs are already being noticed. My power bill is going up by over 10% in the next two years for capacity reasons. They are paying people to put in more efficient electric heating, so we are using less and paying more. I know this is info about my own region but Europe is also heading toward these problems on a wider scale: https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/growing-demand-puts-eu-electricity-grid-under-pressure/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/gro... https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-stories/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto... Also "Otherwise it’s like running your dryer". It is not, at all. If the cost of running my dryer goes up 10% that's not a big deal. Running my car at a 10% increased cost is significant. If my whole neighbourhood gets home at 5pm and plugs in, the grid would fall apart here.
- mixmastamyk 3y ago
  We all can share in the costs of electricity, something centralized and 99% of us need, and that need isn't going away. Fewer of us need gasoline. E-cars almost always have charge scheduling built-in, to charge when cheapest. Here it is after 8 or 9PM for example.
  - monkeynotes 3y ago
    You didn't really acknowledge the citations or my overall point. "E-cars almost always have charge scheduling built-in, to charge when cheapest" if everyone charges when it's cheapest, it will no longer be cheapest. Demand drives cost.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      The schedule car be changed. Though the early evening time period has a lot of spare capacity for a lot of people to charge without changing rates. That is when it tends to be windiest and so those wind turbines which they are trying to size for times of day with otherwise more demand while there is less wind as plenty of supply for your cars. (solar similar analysis but a different time when it is as peak)
      - monkeynotes 3y ago
        Talk to me about how that works when 80% of people are charging every day. That spare capacity goes away as everyone economically chases it to the point of saturation. Everyone can change their schedule and they will all go for the cheapest, which will normalize power prices across the board, AKA no cheap power windows.
        bluGill 3y ago
        Cars are only a small part of the total energy pie, and EVs are a lot more efficient: even with 100% charging the cheap power window won't go away. It won't be as cheap, but most uses of cars are flexible enough to charge during the low price window whenever that happens to be, and the window is large enough to keep the prices down.
        monkeynotes 3y ago
        > Cars are only a small part of the total energy pie If 80% of US drivers switched to electric vehicles, the total annual electricity consumption would be approximately 1,013,472,000,000 kWh (or about 1.01 trillion kWh). This calculation is based on the assumptions of an average annual mileage of 13,500 miles per vehicle, an average electric consumption of 0.34 kWh per mile, and a total of approximately 276 million vehicles in the US. As a contrast, today's total output of power in the US is 4 to 4.5 trillion kWh. So capacity needs to increase 1/4 which is not trivial. Caveat here is we keep the same efficiency in EVs.
ralph84 3y ago
It’s not FUD, it’s reality in California where even off-peak electricity is over $0.40 per kWh. People buy EVs in California because they’re a luxury good, not because they save money on gas.
- mixmastamyk 3y ago
  .20/.26 with LADWP: https://www.solar.com/learn/understanding-ladwp-electric-rates/ https://www.solar.com/learn/understanding-ladwp-electric-rat... They also have a 2.5 cent discount for EVs evenings, nights, and weekends.
  - monkeynotes 3y ago
    That discount will not perpetuate infinitely. It facilitates people onboarding to EVs, but it has nothing to do with long-term infrastructure problems on the horizon as this stuff scales up to being the status quo for how people move around.
    - mixmastamyk 3y ago
      2.5 cents is not much compared to what grandparent was complaining about, 40 cents. And when capacity is strained, guess what? They'll build more. Your defeatism (elsewhere in the thread) is a bit tiring. On the other hand, once people decided to go to the Moon. They did it and returned safely! But according to you building a power plant and laying another set of cables per region is an insurmountable problem. Add that and solar panels at home and work parking lots... done.
nightski 3y ago
Running your dryer for 25 hours vs. a single charge of the car maybe...
- xcrunner529 3y ago
  Very few people are maxing out range and charging full every night.

owenwil 3y ago

I don't think this is true. I live in Canada and the worst costs involved in charging my Tesla at a supercharger are maybe $20 for a full 'tank' but compared with $100+ for a gas car given gas prices here there's no way this is true. Here in BC there's a ton of charging competition too, so you can find far cheaper than superchargers—plenty of places where I live offer free fast charging right now if you look for them. Also, most of the time you're charging at home. In BC, electricity prices are $0.09/kWh... so dirt cheap.

bluGill 3y ago
I don't know what gas prices are like in Canada, but I'd expect about $40 to fill a car of Tesla size in the US. (from empty it might get up to $50). Yes gas is more, but not that much more. I also expect most people are charging at home for much lower electric rates.
monkeynotes 3y ago
BC hydro does not reflect the whole country. In NB we pay close to $.14/kWh, and as I said that's going up this year, and the next. PEI and NS are even more, so already today we are seeing ~$40 a charge. That's with just a handful of people driving EVs. Our province needs another power station, we sell a lot of power to Maine. Across the border in Maine it's ~.36/kWh which is getting close to your $100 a charge, granted Maine is not Canada. As electricity demand goes up, gas demand will go down and according to economics it will just get cheaper.
rightbyte 3y ago
20USD for 50 kWh of electricity us more expansive than gasoline. 1USD per 10 kWh of gasoline. Efficiency about lets say 33%.

hotpotamus 3y ago

I would think charging infra would tend towards being cheaper as it's built out, if only because you don't need enormous tanker trucks trundling around cities distributing the fuel - running electric lines is almost one-and-done in comparison.