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Is there any evidence that supports this statement?
by seabearDEV 3y ago
Is there any evidence that supports this statement?
- p1esk 3y agoProgression GPT1-2-3-4 in last 5 years, with no indication of any slowdown in the near future.
- aristofun 3y agothere are plenty of signs that it is slowing down including current versions quality degradation, unprofitable business models (it's still too damn expensive to be covered by your average 19$/m subscription) etc.
- badpun 3y agoThere's no indication that the pace of innovation for LLMs in the near future will be anywhere near what it has been in the past few years.
- p1esk 3y agoIs there an indication it won't be?
- badpun 3y agoWe simply don't know what it will be. Growth in nature does not continue at the same pace forever, and eventually the speed of innovation will taper off. It's a common phenomena, described with an S-curve: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function). We can't know if LLMs are already there, or not yet, we'll only know after the fact.
- p1esk 3y agoOK, so it is reasonable to assume that the chance the progress will continue in the next two years is about 50%, would you agree? If so, why are people in this thread dismiss my concerns as unreasonable?