4 ms·

Ask HN: Are you an optimist for the next 10 years?

BobbyTables2 3y ago
What kind of question is? I’m optimistic we won’t have nuclear annihilation. I’m not optimistic about many other things.
ijhuygft776 3y ago
No... tech. will destroy us... I think it already started but not sure if most people will notice it in 10 years from now.
- maxrf 3y ago
  We have a long history of 'dangerous' tech not destroying us - agriculture being one... I grew up with the Doomsday Clock (atomic weapons) at 11:59... I think we'll muddle through. It won't be 'irrational exuberance' again any time soon, nor the apocalypse (in my view).
  - muzani 3y ago
    I find it's safest when people fear it. Not just for nukes but things like capitalism, democracy, the military-industrial complex, or well, things like agriculture and genetic modification. Without that fear, you get the people like Trump, the ones who are proud to exploit the weaknesses in the system. You get your GM cows, the kinds who produce lots of meat and milk but are "unstable"; they can barely survive without human interference. The industrial age was a terrible time for humanity in general, and I think we'll see another once AI really kicks in. The AI companies are careful about this. Many are practically begging to get regulated lol. But this self-fear is good.
codingclaws 3y ago
We need AGI/ASI to hit and be a good thing.
- muzani 3y ago
  Why would it be a good thing?
  - precedentmorsel 3y ago
    if executed correctly, it could be a good thing
    - muzani 3y ago
      but what is the good thing? I mean everyone expects more wealth, but technological revolutions usually lead to inequality, a drop in average quality of life, and corruption.
      - precedentmorsel 3y ago
        which technological revolutions have lead to this?
        smoldesu 3y ago
        Usually the ones that happen at a whiplash pace, like Mao's cultural revolution or the introduction of firearms to Native American populations. New technology needs time to mature and be rationalized by society at-large. Aviation and computing are both good examples, which had half-century long development phases before breaking into the consumer market and (finally) improving quality-of-life for everyone. AI is just going to exist and rapidly develop outside the scrutiny of standardization. If you're a libertarian or venture capitalist it's probably your wet dream, but if planes and computers were developed like that then we probably still wouldn't have smartphones and passenger jets in 2024.
mikewarot 3y ago
I think we need to avoid the 3 problems, DNA weapons, Atomic Weapons, and AI weapons. I think that in the long run, we'll work them all out. Compared to my youth, the stakes these days seem lower. I no longer worry every night about getting flash boiled by a Soviet 10 Megaton warhead, or a Communist Invasion.
aristofun 3y ago
Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get better afterwards.
- defrost 3y ago
  > mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. Aside from the population of Easter Island and other such resource constrained losers (/s). I'm optimisic for the next decade simply beacuse the issues we face now were a century in the making and will take a century more to really bite.
- chrsw 3y ago
  >mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. Will I be part of this amazing growth?
  - aristofun 3y ago
    If you survive it - yes. And if you can afford chatting on HN - most likely you are in the priveleged group who will survive.
    - giantg2 3y ago
      Plenty of people have survived only to be left behind.
      - aristofun 3y ago
        This is an empty phrase that can mean anything.
        3y ago
paulcole 3y ago
No. I think I’ll probably manage OK, but in the US at least it’s going to be pretty grim for a lot of people unless something drastically changes. Beyond the next few decades the effects of climage change are going to be hard to avoid unless you’re particularly wealthy.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
nothercastle 3y ago
Someone will win big in the next decade. The question is will it be you? Me? China? Europe? USA? That we don’t know.
- samstave 3y ago
  Oligarchs gunna Oligarch. But the consolidation and the .001% have really gottten in bed together in a way that they never could before. With all their assets intrisincly entangled in the global economy, AI is here to bring the next level of wealth extraction for them, greater authoritarianism and a globalisation like we havent seen. The wars we are fighting are for who is going to be in charge of the dominant AI entanglements in finance, industry, pharma/health, media, tech, defense, security. I am optimistic that it will be another tier in the tech evolution I've seen in my life - but a Rising tide of control of how a populous uses/benefits/consumes/produces in a complete AI entangled world, raises all authoritarian systems. Its bleak for anyone who cant integrate into the Entanglement.
  - precedentmorsel 3y ago
    but who? how does it begin? what are your thoughts on 2024-2028
  - hxypqr 3y ago
    The number .001% should be changed to .1% or 1%.
    - samstave 3y ago
      I was implying that the .001% are the Oligarchs. The 1% are their entourage/minions/buffer-class. https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png <<--- Wow, I was spot-the-f-on. However, the list of >100B people obviously doesnt include a lot of people that are in the shadows. Medici is still around, Rothschilds, Germanic-royal-bloodlines in the hapsberg gotha and other lines, etc. And obviously its talking about known "market" worth - but look at how much land and real-estate is owned by people such as Rothschilds, and ilk. - Billionaires with over $100 billion net worth (as of January 13, 2024): https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png Top 20 of the next tier: https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png 99% are the chattel.
hotpotamus 3y ago
I think back 10 years and I was pretty pessimistic about where we would be now, but I think things have mostly turned out worse than I expected. I can’t imagine being a child these days with the increasingly bleak future they’re facing, and I used to feel quite opposite of that; I was jealous of the future they’d get to see that I wouldn’t. So no.
bravetraveler 3y ago
It's tumultuous. I should be optimistic; personally things have trended upwards consistently - and if you look around, so has 'modern society'. Whatever that means. Yet... I'm conflicted. I'm the exception. Without guessing numbers/getting too into it, I can say a majority of my graduating class spanning the southern half of a state had no future. We all live in different realities. I see the Great Value Dystopia being built around me. There's value [for someone], I'm just not sure it's me.
admissionsguy 3y ago
Yes, quite excited about it actually. Personally, I will be most likely moving to the USA within two years (finally figured out EB2-NIW is the way to go). Nowhere else does one pay relatively small taxes and get 11 carrier strike groups out of it! Globally, there is even more to look forward to - tech (bio, space), politics (left seems to be waning), economy are all looking good. If there is something I am worried about, it's the barbarians, but the issue will take a bit more than 10 years to come to a head (and in any case, it's never the barbarians that take down empires).
- giantg2 3y ago
  "left seems to be waning" Is it? The country is divided mostly in an urban vs rural way. Each area is basically aligned the same as it always was. If anything, urban sprawl and transplants are causing more areas to become urbanized and lean left.
  - BillyTheMage 3y ago
    It's not even "left", it's Democrats. Most actual leftists are out in the country too scared for their lives to do much public organizing.
    - giantg2 3y ago
      Depends on how far left we are talking. Based on the party goals/statements it's typically that Democrats are left and Republicans are right. Obviously there is a spectrum, but that seems to be true in the aggregate and reflected in the types of laws being enacted in the municipalities or states.
nicbou 3y ago
I'm feeling neutral. I like the expression "changing the game" because it suggests neither improving nor worsening the situation. It just changes the rules. Well, AI changes the game. It will be wild. Locally, in Berlin, things will get worse. In Germany too. Too many problems went ignored for too long, too many investments were delayed. It feels like services will noticeably degrade for all residents. Personally, things just keep getting better. I get a growing sense of mastery about life in general. I feared aging but now feel its sweeter side. The world? Some parts will get better and others will get worse. I haven't seen enough of it to judge. I just know that one place's dark age is another's enlightenment.
lgkk 3y ago
I'm an optimist until I die. While alive, live. I have no idea what came before, what will come, or even if this is all in my head. Might as well play the game until its over lol. To be a pessimist or complacent is to die, for me at least.
tacostakohashi 3y ago
I'm pretty mixed! I'm bearish on: - big cities and living in them - tech and finance jobs - the internet I'm bullish on: - decentralized / rural living / communities - asset prices, both stocks and real estate
simne 3y ago
Well, latest trends to talk that ultra-specialized I-shaped specialist is not good, but in modern environment should be Pi-shaped (Greek Pi letter with two legs), or multiple-legs shaped specialist, like m-shaped or even more legs. I'm not I-shaped, so I will talk separately about different matters. Technically, or on cybernetic industry, I'm absolutely optimistic, I'm sure, we will see Great achievements nearest time. For others, I'm not so optimistic. In my "viewport", international politics is not looking enough optimistic, I think it's not fatal, we will live, civilization infrastructure will survive, but possible millions of victims of non-optimal control. Similar thing about international economy - it will sure suffer very much from non-optimal politics. I believe, Earth will avoid new world war, but it will cost huge resources and huge number of victims in local conflicts. Very high probability, we will see one of more waves of millions of refugees, and current refugees will not return to their home countries. Yes, must admit, largest world subjects have great crisis, but I believe in democracy and I know from history, democracies usually become stronger in crisis. So, also high probability, in nearest 2-3 years old democracies will resolve their crisis and world will become better, safer place, with more democracy, and next years will be just other technological circle. Unfortunately, for non-democratic and for border worlds, things much worse. As democracies busy in their crisis, "third world" will suffer great shakes, already existing local wars and some tensions could also transform to few wars. I'm sure in "third world" tech achievements will be used at war. I want to avoid such scenario, but I have not enough resources to do so. And latest, sure, will be huge differences how these years will live "first world" and "third world", but I'm optimistic about border countries, who now making desperate tries to become important for "first world" - I think, their pains will be considered in "first world" and they will got significant support.
giantg2 3y ago
I'm not optimistic at all. I feel that my company will increase their outsourcing and selling off parts of the company. The working environment at my company will continue to change in ways that make it more difficult for someone with my disability to be successful. My skills will atrophy further. My home life will continue to be rough due to family medical issues, small children, and financial/ideological disagreements. Overall I think there will be interesting breakthroughs in many areas of technology, medicine, etc. However, I think most of the technical enhancements will end up being misapplied or implemented in ways that are not to my liking. Life will continue to get more complicated and expensive. I'm sure that there will be more bad laws passed than good ones, however well intentioned they started out.

What kind of question is? I’m optimistic we won’t have nuclear annihilation. I’m not optimistic about many other things.

ijhuygft776 3y ago

No... tech. will destroy us... I think it already started but not sure if most people will notice it in 10 years from now.

maxrf 3y ago
We have a long history of 'dangerous' tech not destroying us - agriculture being one... I grew up with the Doomsday Clock (atomic weapons) at 11:59... I think we'll muddle through. It won't be 'irrational exuberance' again any time soon, nor the apocalypse (in my view).
- muzani 3y ago
  I find it's safest when people fear it. Not just for nukes but things like capitalism, democracy, the military-industrial complex, or well, things like agriculture and genetic modification. Without that fear, you get the people like Trump, the ones who are proud to exploit the weaknesses in the system. You get your GM cows, the kinds who produce lots of meat and milk but are "unstable"; they can barely survive without human interference. The industrial age was a terrible time for humanity in general, and I think we'll see another once AI really kicks in. The AI companies are careful about this. Many are practically begging to get regulated lol. But this self-fear is good.

codingclaws 3y ago

We need AGI/ASI to hit and be a good thing.

muzani 3y ago
Why would it be a good thing?
- precedentmorsel 3y ago
  if executed correctly, it could be a good thing
  - muzani 3y ago
    but what is the good thing? I mean everyone expects more wealth, but technological revolutions usually lead to inequality, a drop in average quality of life, and corruption.
    - precedentmorsel 3y ago
      which technological revolutions have lead to this?
      - smoldesu 3y ago
        Usually the ones that happen at a whiplash pace, like Mao's cultural revolution or the introduction of firearms to Native American populations. New technology needs time to mature and be rationalized by society at-large. Aviation and computing are both good examples, which had half-century long development phases before breaking into the consumer market and (finally) improving quality-of-life for everyone. AI is just going to exist and rapidly develop outside the scrutiny of standardization. If you're a libertarian or venture capitalist it's probably your wet dream, but if planes and computers were developed like that then we probably still wouldn't have smartphones and passenger jets in 2024.

mikewarot 3y ago

I think we need to avoid the 3 problems, DNA weapons, Atomic Weapons, and AI weapons. I think that in the long run, we'll work them all out. Compared to my youth, the stakes these days seem lower. I no longer worry every night about getting flash boiled by a Soviet 10 Megaton warhead, or a Communist Invasion.

aristofun 3y ago

Obviously. There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis. It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason. Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it. It is exactly because of crisis things get better afterwards.

defrost 3y ago
> mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. Aside from the population of Easter Island and other such resource constrained losers (/s). I'm optimisic for the next decade simply beacuse the issues we face now were a century in the making and will take a century more to really bite.
chrsw 3y ago
>mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights. Will I be part of this amazing growth?
- aristofun 3y ago
  If you survive it - yes. And if you can afford chatting on HN - most likely you are in the priveleged group who will survive.
  - giantg2 3y ago
    Plenty of people have survived only to be left behind.
    - aristofun 3y ago
      This is an empty phrase that can mean anything.
      - 3y ago

paulcole 3y ago

No. I think I’ll probably manage OK, but in the US at least it’s going to be pretty grim for a lot of people unless something drastically changes. Beyond the next few decades the effects of climage change are going to be hard to avoid unless you’re particularly wealthy.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

nothercastle 3y ago

Someone will win big in the next decade. The question is will it be you? Me? China? Europe? USA? That we don’t know.

samstave 3y ago
Oligarchs gunna Oligarch. But the consolidation and the .001% have really gottten in bed together in a way that they never could before. With all their assets intrisincly entangled in the global economy, AI is here to bring the next level of wealth extraction for them, greater authoritarianism and a globalisation like we havent seen. The wars we are fighting are for who is going to be in charge of the dominant AI entanglements in finance, industry, pharma/health, media, tech, defense, security. I am optimistic that it will be another tier in the tech evolution I've seen in my life - but a Rising tide of control of how a populous uses/benefits/consumes/produces in a complete AI entangled world, raises all authoritarian systems. Its bleak for anyone who cant integrate into the Entanglement.
- precedentmorsel 3y ago
  but who? how does it begin? what are your thoughts on 2024-2028
- hxypqr 3y ago
  The number .001% should be changed to .1% or 1%.
  - samstave 3y ago
    I was implying that the .001% are the Oligarchs. The 1% are their entourage/minions/buffer-class. https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png <<--- Wow, I was spot-the-f-on. However, the list of >100B people obviously doesnt include a lot of people that are in the shadows. Medici is still around, Rothschilds, Germanic-royal-bloodlines in the hapsberg gotha and other lines, etc. And obviously its talking about known "market" worth - but look at how much land and real-estate is owned by people such as Rothschilds, and ilk. - Billionaires with over $100 billion net worth (as of January 13, 2024): https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png Top 20 of the next tier: https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png 99% are the chattel.

hotpotamus 3y ago

I think back 10 years and I was pretty pessimistic about where we would be now, but I think things have mostly turned out worse than I expected. I can’t imagine being a child these days with the increasingly bleak future they’re facing, and I used to feel quite opposite of that; I was jealous of the future they’d get to see that I wouldn’t. So no.

bravetraveler 3y ago

It's tumultuous. I should be optimistic; personally things have trended upwards consistently - and if you look around, so has 'modern society'. Whatever that means. Yet... I'm conflicted. I'm the exception. Without guessing numbers/getting too into it, I can say a majority of my graduating class spanning the southern half of a state had no future. We all live in different realities. I see the Great Value Dystopia being built around me. There's value [for someone], I'm just not sure it's me.

admissionsguy 3y ago

Yes, quite excited about it actually. Personally, I will be most likely moving to the USA within two years (finally figured out EB2-NIW is the way to go). Nowhere else does one pay relatively small taxes and get 11 carrier strike groups out of it! Globally, there is even more to look forward to - tech (bio, space), politics (left seems to be waning), economy are all looking good. If there is something I am worried about, it's the barbarians, but the issue will take a bit more than 10 years to come to a head (and in any case, it's never the barbarians that take down empires).

giantg2 3y ago
"left seems to be waning" Is it? The country is divided mostly in an urban vs rural way. Each area is basically aligned the same as it always was. If anything, urban sprawl and transplants are causing more areas to become urbanized and lean left.
- BillyTheMage 3y ago
  It's not even "left", it's Democrats. Most actual leftists are out in the country too scared for their lives to do much public organizing.
  - giantg2 3y ago
    Depends on how far left we are talking. Based on the party goals/statements it's typically that Democrats are left and Republicans are right. Obviously there is a spectrum, but that seems to be true in the aggregate and reflected in the types of laws being enacted in the municipalities or states.

nicbou 3y ago

I'm feeling neutral. I like the expression "changing the game" because it suggests neither improving nor worsening the situation. It just changes the rules. Well, AI changes the game. It will be wild. Locally, in Berlin, things will get worse. In Germany too. Too many problems went ignored for too long, too many investments were delayed. It feels like services will noticeably degrade for all residents. Personally, things just keep getting better. I get a growing sense of mastery about life in general. I feared aging but now feel its sweeter side. The world? Some parts will get better and others will get worse. I haven't seen enough of it to judge. I just know that one place's dark age is another's enlightenment.

lgkk 3y ago

I'm an optimist until I die. While alive, live. I have no idea what came before, what will come, or even if this is all in my head. Might as well play the game until its over lol. To be a pessimist or complacent is to die, for me at least.

tacostakohashi 3y ago

I'm pretty mixed! I'm bearish on: - big cities and living in them - tech and finance jobs - the internet I'm bullish on: - decentralized / rural living / communities - asset prices, both stocks and real estate

simne 3y ago

Well, latest trends to talk that ultra-specialized I-shaped specialist is not good, but in modern environment should be Pi-shaped (Greek Pi letter with two legs), or multiple-legs shaped specialist, like m-shaped or even more legs. I'm not I-shaped, so I will talk separately about different matters. Technically, or on cybernetic industry, I'm absolutely optimistic, I'm sure, we will see Great achievements nearest time. For others, I'm not so optimistic. In my "viewport", international politics is not looking enough optimistic, I think it's not fatal, we will live, civilization infrastructure will survive, but possible millions of victims of non-optimal control. Similar thing about international economy - it will sure suffer very much from non-optimal politics. I believe, Earth will avoid new world war, but it will cost huge resources and huge number of victims in local conflicts. Very high probability, we will see one of more waves of millions of refugees, and current refugees will not return to their home countries. Yes, must admit, largest world subjects have great crisis, but I believe in democracy and I know from history, democracies usually become stronger in crisis. So, also high probability, in nearest 2-3 years old democracies will resolve their crisis and world will become better, safer place, with more democracy, and next years will be just other technological circle. Unfortunately, for non-democratic and for border worlds, things much worse. As democracies busy in their crisis, "third world" will suffer great shakes, already existing local wars and some tensions could also transform to few wars. I'm sure in "third world" tech achievements will be used at war. I want to avoid such scenario, but I have not enough resources to do so. And latest, sure, will be huge differences how these years will live "first world" and "third world", but I'm optimistic about border countries, who now making desperate tries to become important for "first world" - I think, their pains will be considered in "first world" and they will got significant support.

giantg2 3y ago

I'm not optimistic at all. I feel that my company will increase their outsourcing and selling off parts of the company. The working environment at my company will continue to change in ways that make it more difficult for someone with my disability to be successful. My skills will atrophy further. My home life will continue to be rough due to family medical issues, small children, and financial/ideological disagreements. Overall I think there will be interesting breakthroughs in many areas of technology, medicine, etc. However, I think most of the technical enhancements will end up being misapplied or implemented in ways that are not to my liking. Life will continue to get more complicated and expensive. I'm sure that there will be more bad laws passed than good ones, however well intentioned they started out.