5 ms·

I would be happy to be proven wrong.

by danjac 3y ago

ChatGTP 3y ago
Do you have any idea how much software there is in the world? What would you think it's just going to stop being produced and maintained tomorrow? Do you have any idea what the societal costs of such a change would be? Even if it was due to "AI", hundreds of thousands of AI augmented developers are going to be off launching new startups writing more and more software, hacking stuff, it's not just going to end tomorrow because there is value in software and software solutions.
- danjac 3y ago
  Yep, like I said, whistling in the dark.
  - theshackleford 3y ago
    So basically you have nothing. Thanks for confirming I guess.
    - danjac 3y ago
      I already pointed out there's going to be legacy work for a while, especially in certain specialisations. Everything else "AI powered developers are going to startup all the things!!!" is just hype by some poster literally calling themselves (ironically I hope) ChatGPT.
      - dieortin 3y ago
        You still have not provided a single reason why software developers are supposedly going to become useless overnight
        danjac 3y ago
        Only 700 new IT jobs created in the last year for the whole of the US: https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ The blood-letting is still ongoing (Pixar and Discord, just talking about today). I think the overall reason is that a lot of startups and services have been unprofitable for a while, and the zero-interest-rate environment of the past decade was the high tide that covered a lot of people swimming naked, as Buffett once put it. There might be other reasons for example SAAS platforms being consolidated into fewer and fewer big players. Long term AI will play its part - perhaps creating lots of junk code, but CEOs don't really care about long term quality these days, just short term earnings calls. Of course there are going to be niches and things like payroll or flight booking programs that will need maintenance work from now until the end of time, and some programmers will be around in 10 years, just not as many. Again, I would love to be proven wrong.
- oldpersonintx 3y ago
  [dead]
- hindsightbias 3y ago
  Nobody maintains anything anymore anyway. Even a company that sells 18M laptops a year for $30B can't be bothered to timely fix their OS bugs. So that's 99% of the code base right there. X has proven 80% aren't doing much of importance. Of the remaining 1%, 3/4ths are probably rewriting to some flavor of the week and 1/4th are developing some real feature.

I would be happy to be proven wrong.

by danjac 3y ago

I would be happy to be proven wrong.

Do you have any idea how much software there is in the world? What would you think it's just going to stop being produced and maintained tomorrow? Do you have any idea what the societal costs of such a change would be? Even if it was due to "AI", hundreds of thousands of AI augmented developers are going to be off launching new startups writing more and more software, hacking stuff, it's not just going to end tomorrow because there is value in software and software solutions.

danjac 3y ago
Yep, like I said, whistling in the dark.
- theshackleford 3y ago
  So basically you have nothing. Thanks for confirming I guess.
  - danjac 3y ago
    I already pointed out there's going to be legacy work for a while, especially in certain specialisations. Everything else "AI powered developers are going to startup all the things!!!" is just hype by some poster literally calling themselves (ironically I hope) ChatGPT.
    - dieortin 3y ago
      You still have not provided a single reason why software developers are supposedly going to become useless overnight
      - danjac 3y ago
        Only 700 new IT jobs created in the last year for the whole of the US: https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ The blood-letting is still ongoing (Pixar and Discord, just talking about today). I think the overall reason is that a lot of startups and services have been unprofitable for a while, and the zero-interest-rate environment of the past decade was the high tide that covered a lot of people swimming naked, as Buffett once put it. There might be other reasons for example SAAS platforms being consolidated into fewer and fewer big players. Long term AI will play its part - perhaps creating lots of junk code, but CEOs don't really care about long term quality these days, just short term earnings calls. Of course there are going to be niches and things like payroll or flight booking programs that will need maintenance work from now until the end of time, and some programmers will be around in 10 years, just not as many. Again, I would love to be proven wrong.
oldpersonintx 3y ago
[dead]
hindsightbias 3y ago
Nobody maintains anything anymore anyway. Even a company that sells 18M laptops a year for $30B can't be bothered to timely fix their OS bugs. So that's 99% of the code base right there. X has proven 80% aren't doing much of importance. Of the remaining 1%, 3/4ths are probably rewriting to some flavor of the week and 1/4th are developing some real feature.