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Inflation is a lagging indicator. Bitcoin gained in 2020 and early 2021 when debasement happened and the supply of money increased. That debasement takes time t

Inflation is a lagging indicator. Bitcoin gained in 2020 and early 2021 when debasement happened and the supply of money increased. That debasement takes time to show up in price data, and then even longer to show up in headline inflation, which is a 12 month average. TIPS and i-bonds are limited in their role as a hedge. Sure, you are exactly compensated for inflation on the capital you invest. However, without the ability to have any leverage, you can't actually use this as a hedge against other capital which has exposure to inflation but which couldn't be converted.

dragontamer 3y ago
It sounds like you're trying to tie BTC to the monetary supply. BTC goes up when M2 increases, and possibly goes down when M2 goes down? So why is BTC going up when M2 is shrinking for the past 18+ months? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
- datadata 3y ago
  Not sure, it is just a correlation not an iron rule and definitely not the only influence. The shrinking here of m2 is much much smaller than the previous increase was as well.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    > it is just a correlation Correlation of what, to what, and what's the R-value? Across what time frame? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation These words normally have _meaning_ ya know. They're not just things you toss out in a meaningless online discussion.
    - datadata 3y ago
      There are certainly time frames where change in global m2 money supply and change in bitcoin's price over say 12mo would have a positive R value. That isn't the point I am making. If the amount of money available goes up, then one would expect that the price of other things, all else held equal would also go up. It would be quite strange for bitcoin or any other commodity to behave differently consistently and over a long period.
      - dragontamer 3y ago
        > If the amount of money available goes up, then one would expect that the price of other things, all else held equal would also go up And if the amount of money available goes down for 18 months... then what? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS An "inflation hedge" goes up when inflation is up, and down when inflation is down. But in practice, BTC is closer to down when inflation is up, and up when inflation is down.
        datadata 3y ago
        It isn't a perfect inflation hedge, no one is claiming that. You are cherry picking a single interval where the correlation is negative. If you zoom out, you'll find that the correlation is mostly positive. Past correlation is also not predictive of future results.

dragontamer 3y ago

It sounds like you're trying to tie BTC to the monetary supply. BTC goes up when M2 increases, and possibly goes down when M2 goes down? So why is BTC going up when M2 is shrinking for the past 18+ months? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

datadata 3y ago
Not sure, it is just a correlation not an iron rule and definitely not the only influence. The shrinking here of m2 is much much smaller than the previous increase was as well.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  > it is just a correlation Correlation of what, to what, and what's the R-value? Across what time frame? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation These words normally have _meaning_ ya know. They're not just things you toss out in a meaningless online discussion.
  - datadata 3y ago
    There are certainly time frames where change in global m2 money supply and change in bitcoin's price over say 12mo would have a positive R value. That isn't the point I am making. If the amount of money available goes up, then one would expect that the price of other things, all else held equal would also go up. It would be quite strange for bitcoin or any other commodity to behave differently consistently and over a long period.
    - dragontamer 3y ago
      > If the amount of money available goes up, then one would expect that the price of other things, all else held equal would also go up And if the amount of money available goes down for 18 months... then what? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS An "inflation hedge" goes up when inflation is up, and down when inflation is down. But in practice, BTC is closer to down when inflation is up, and up when inflation is down.
      - datadata 3y ago
        It isn't a perfect inflation hedge, no one is claiming that. You are cherry picking a single interval where the correlation is negative. If you zoom out, you'll find that the correlation is mostly positive. Past correlation is also not predictive of future results.