6 ms·

Would love a tl;dw. How does he predict the fail will materialize?

by jorlow 3y ago

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
Here's what Bard says: "The video starts by talking about how Spotify has become the dominant force in the music industry. In 2018, Spotify had over 200 million users and was paying out over $5 billion in royalties to artists. However, the video also points out that Spotify is not a very profitable company. In fact, Spotify has lost money every year since it was founded in 2006. So, how does Spotify make money? The answer is that Spotify makes money by selling advertising. In 2018, Spotify generated over $1.2 billion in advertising revenue. This means that Spotify is essentially a media company that just happens to also offer music streaming. The video also discusses the impact of streaming on artists. On the one hand, streaming has made it easier for people to discover new music. This can be a good thing for artists, as it can help them to reach a wider audience. On the other hand, streaming has also led to a decline in album sales. This is because people are no longer willing to pay $10 or $20 for an album when they can stream it for free on Spotify. As a result of this, many artists are now struggling to make a living from their music. In fact, a study by the Berklee College of Music found that the median income for a full-time musician in the United States is just $20,000 per year. So, what does the future hold for the music industry? The video argues that the music industry is in a state of flux. It is unclear how artists will be able to make a living in the future, and it is also unclear how Spotify will be able to continue to grow its business."
- 4death4 3y ago
  But where is the prediction on how Spotify will fail?
  - mritchie712 3y ago
    > the video also points out that Spotify is not a very profitable company. In fact, Spotify has lost money every year since it was founded in 2006. you can't lose money indefinitely
  - stingraycharles 3y ago
    Increasing interest rates.
- arghwhat 3y ago
  "Spotify is essentially a media company" - they are definitely still a music streaming company with an ad-sponsored product-tier, even if the ad-sponsored tier is the most popular or most profitable. Also, when you have an ad-sponsored tier you are not streaming for free - you are paying by selling your attention, it's just that the resulting cash price of the subscription is opaque to the user. This differs from e.g. Google that runs a large ad platform used not only by several of their own services, but also external products and services (other websites and apps).
- SiempreViernes 3y ago
  In their annual report[1] Spotify specify they make about 10 times more revenue from premium than ads, so that's a pretty big blow to their thesis. [1]: https://s29.q4cdn.com/175625835/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/b283934e-7a7c-4da6-8749-856dfa4c36e6.pdf https://s29.q4cdn.com/175625835/files/doc_financials/2022/ar... (p. 51)
- laborcontract 3y ago
  It's incredible how bard hallucinated THIS ENTIRE SUMMARY and not a single person realizes it.
- jasode 3y ago
  >Here's what Bard says: [...] Unfortunately, that's an example of where A.I. didn't do a good job of extracting the key thesis of Benn Jordan's argument. Arguably, Benn Jordan himself didn't make it easy for the automatic semantic algorithm to summarize his main point because he's not stating it clearly enough and sprinkles in tangents throughout the presentation. Basically, he says "Spotify Will Fail" because they created a flawed and unsustainable economic structure which happened because it signed lopsided licensing deals with the Big 3 Labels that leaves no significant money for smaller artists trying to make a living. Spotify had to "overpay" for the Big Labels song catalog to attract a large userbase so its current financial history has been a roundabout funneling of VC investment money (and most subscribers' money) into the Big 3 Labels rather than create a sustainable streaming business where more musicians can share in the pie. The random sentences extracted by Bard AI hide Benn's core thesis. The other sentences not extracted are the ones that support Benn's main argument: (1) the lopsided Sony licensing deal example, (2) the various other examples of VC money spent on subsidizing fundamentally unprofitable businesses structures for participants (Uber, $9.99 unlimited movies at theaters, etc).
hyperbovine 3y ago
I didn't watch either, but judging from the comments, it's the usual story: they are completely beholden to record companies, who own rights to nearly all of their catalog. Thus most of their revenue goes straight back out the door as royalties. Moreover, the recording companies can raise the rates pretty much at-will, which apparently they have done upon seeing Spotify starting to make a bit more money. That is why Spotify are desperately trying to produce their own content, most notably in the podcast space, and I suspect why they also recently branched out into audiobooks, as every hour spent listening to an audiobook displaces a dozen or so royalty-generating song plays.
- alexpotato 3y ago
  I'm surprised Spotify wouldn't take this to the next step and, borrowing a page from the old industrialists, try to vertically integrate and start their own music label and talent scouting arm. You would think they could pull a "Netflix and House of Cards" to use all of their play data to find exactly which kind of niche singer/songwriter people would want to hear. They could then use their reach + algorithms to float their artists into people's "discover new" playlists.
  - Sebb767 3y ago
    > I'm surprised Spotify wouldn't take this to the next step and, borrowing a page from the old industrialists, try to vertically integrate and start their own music label and talent scouting arm. Probably because music is spread quite far and the labels have a tight grip on the industry. If you want to have the music most people listen to, you need to have the top talent. Also, music is not as fungible as music is - if Spotify is lacking popular music, people are going to be discontent, use less playlists and use Spotify less in return. > You would think they could pull a "Netflix and House of Cards" to use all of their play data to find exactly which kind of niche singer/songwriter people would want to hear. I'm not sure this is working that well for Netflix. It has lot of pressure with competing streaming services that market their exclusives and their library is pretty lacking, compared to a few years ago.
    - 3y ago
konart 3y ago
https://www.summarize.tech/www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDfNRWsMRsU https://www.summarize.tech/www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDfNRWsMR... For those against clicking: 00:00:00 - 00:15:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will ultimately fail due to the high cost of membership, the fact that streaming services pay independent musicians less than traditional music platforms, and the company's neglect of its only asset - its artists. 00:00:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will ultimately fail because of the high cost of membership and the fact that streaming services pay independent musicians less than traditional music platforms. 00:05:00 The author of the video makes the case that Spotify will eventually fail because of its business model, which relies on rapid growth and unsustainable levels of value in the music industry. He argues that if Spotify's independent musicians were paid more fairly, the platform would be unable to survive. 00:10:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will eventually fail due to the company's neglect of its only asset - its artists. The author believes that this neglect will lead to the eventual collapse of the streaming music industry as a whole. However, he also believes that this collapse will be hastened by the fact that for-profit companies are required to eventually pay their investors as little as possible. 00:15:00 The author of this video argues that streaming services like Spotify will ultimately fail because they rely on artificial scarcity (i.e. the notion that there are not enough songs available to listen to on the platform). They suggest that instead of using streaming services, musicians should focus on releasing their music on their own platforms, such as Bandcamp or their own website.

Would love a tl;dw. How does he predict the fail will materialize?

by jorlow 3y ago

Would love a tl;dw. How does he predict the fail will materialize?

Here's what Bard says: "The video starts by talking about how Spotify has become the dominant force in the music industry. In 2018, Spotify had over 200 million users and was paying out over $5 billion in royalties to artists. However, the video also points out that Spotify is not a very profitable company. In fact, Spotify has lost money every year since it was founded in 2006. So, how does Spotify make money? The answer is that Spotify makes money by selling advertising. In 2018, Spotify generated over $1.2 billion in advertising revenue. This means that Spotify is essentially a media company that just happens to also offer music streaming. The video also discusses the impact of streaming on artists. On the one hand, streaming has made it easier for people to discover new music. This can be a good thing for artists, as it can help them to reach a wider audience. On the other hand, streaming has also led to a decline in album sales. This is because people are no longer willing to pay $10 or $20 for an album when they can stream it for free on Spotify. As a result of this, many artists are now struggling to make a living from their music. In fact, a study by the Berklee College of Music found that the median income for a full-time musician in the United States is just $20,000 per year. So, what does the future hold for the music industry? The video argues that the music industry is in a state of flux. It is unclear how artists will be able to make a living in the future, and it is also unclear how Spotify will be able to continue to grow its business."

4death4 3y ago
But where is the prediction on how Spotify will fail?
- mritchie712 3y ago
  > the video also points out that Spotify is not a very profitable company. In fact, Spotify has lost money every year since it was founded in 2006. you can't lose money indefinitely
- stingraycharles 3y ago
  Increasing interest rates.
arghwhat 3y ago
"Spotify is essentially a media company" - they are definitely still a music streaming company with an ad-sponsored product-tier, even if the ad-sponsored tier is the most popular or most profitable. Also, when you have an ad-sponsored tier you are not streaming for free - you are paying by selling your attention, it's just that the resulting cash price of the subscription is opaque to the user. This differs from e.g. Google that runs a large ad platform used not only by several of their own services, but also external products and services (other websites and apps).
SiempreViernes 3y ago
In their annual report[1] Spotify specify they make about 10 times more revenue from premium than ads, so that's a pretty big blow to their thesis. [1]: https://s29.q4cdn.com/175625835/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/b283934e-7a7c-4da6-8749-856dfa4c36e6.pdf https://s29.q4cdn.com/175625835/files/doc_financials/2022/ar... (p. 51)
laborcontract 3y ago
It's incredible how bard hallucinated THIS ENTIRE SUMMARY and not a single person realizes it.
jasode 3y ago
>Here's what Bard says: [...] Unfortunately, that's an example of where A.I. didn't do a good job of extracting the key thesis of Benn Jordan's argument. Arguably, Benn Jordan himself didn't make it easy for the automatic semantic algorithm to summarize his main point because he's not stating it clearly enough and sprinkles in tangents throughout the presentation. Basically, he says "Spotify Will Fail" because they created a flawed and unsustainable economic structure which happened because it signed lopsided licensing deals with the Big 3 Labels that leaves no significant money for smaller artists trying to make a living. Spotify had to "overpay" for the Big Labels song catalog to attract a large userbase so its current financial history has been a roundabout funneling of VC investment money (and most subscribers' money) into the Big 3 Labels rather than create a sustainable streaming business where more musicians can share in the pie. The random sentences extracted by Bard AI hide Benn's core thesis. The other sentences not extracted are the ones that support Benn's main argument: (1) the lopsided Sony licensing deal example, (2) the various other examples of VC money spent on subsidizing fundamentally unprofitable businesses structures for participants (Uber, $9.99 unlimited movies at theaters, etc).

hyperbovine 3y ago

I didn't watch either, but judging from the comments, it's the usual story: they are completely beholden to record companies, who own rights to nearly all of their catalog. Thus most of their revenue goes straight back out the door as royalties. Moreover, the recording companies can raise the rates pretty much at-will, which apparently they have done upon seeing Spotify starting to make a bit more money. That is why Spotify are desperately trying to produce their own content, most notably in the podcast space, and I suspect why they also recently branched out into audiobooks, as every hour spent listening to an audiobook displaces a dozen or so royalty-generating song plays.

alexpotato 3y ago
I'm surprised Spotify wouldn't take this to the next step and, borrowing a page from the old industrialists, try to vertically integrate and start their own music label and talent scouting arm. You would think they could pull a "Netflix and House of Cards" to use all of their play data to find exactly which kind of niche singer/songwriter people would want to hear. They could then use their reach + algorithms to float their artists into people's "discover new" playlists.
- Sebb767 3y ago
  > I'm surprised Spotify wouldn't take this to the next step and, borrowing a page from the old industrialists, try to vertically integrate and start their own music label and talent scouting arm. Probably because music is spread quite far and the labels have a tight grip on the industry. If you want to have the music most people listen to, you need to have the top talent. Also, music is not as fungible as music is - if Spotify is lacking popular music, people are going to be discontent, use less playlists and use Spotify less in return. > You would think they could pull a "Netflix and House of Cards" to use all of their play data to find exactly which kind of niche singer/songwriter people would want to hear. I'm not sure this is working that well for Netflix. It has lot of pressure with competing streaming services that market their exclusives and their library is pretty lacking, compared to a few years ago.
  - 3y ago

konart 3y ago

https://www.summarize.tech/www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDfNRWsMRsU https://www.summarize.tech/www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDfNRWsMR... For those against clicking: 00:00:00 - 00:15:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will ultimately fail due to the high cost of membership, the fact that streaming services pay independent musicians less than traditional music platforms, and the company's neglect of its only asset - its artists. 00:00:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will ultimately fail because of the high cost of membership and the fact that streaming services pay independent musicians less than traditional music platforms. 00:05:00 The author of the video makes the case that Spotify will eventually fail because of its business model, which relies on rapid growth and unsustainable levels of value in the music industry. He argues that if Spotify's independent musicians were paid more fairly, the platform would be unable to survive. 00:10:00 The author of the video argues that Spotify will eventually fail due to the company's neglect of its only asset - its artists. The author believes that this neglect will lead to the eventual collapse of the streaming music industry as a whole. However, he also believes that this collapse will be hastened by the fact that for-profit companies are required to eventually pay their investors as little as possible. 00:15:00 The author of this video argues that streaming services like Spotify will ultimately fail because they rely on artificial scarcity (i.e. the notion that there are not enough songs available to listen to on the platform). They suggest that instead of using streaming services, musicians should focus on releasing their music on their own platforms, such as Bandcamp or their own website.