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They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they sa
by zuzun 3y ago
They perform several model runs with slightly different configurations and then compare the predictions to a reference period, currently 1991-2020. When they say "above average", most model runs fell in the upper tercile of the reference period and the probability is derived from the fraction.
- nerdponx 3y agoThanks, is there a summary of this methodology somewhere? Some established climate forecasting textbook? A good literature review?