5 ms·

Why does the narrative that Russia blew up its own pipeline exist.

nickff 3y ago
Because there are a number of internal actors who would have benefited from doing so. For example, if Putin had felt threatened by someone trying to overthrow him, and negotiate an end to sanctions (and the Ukraine war), it might make sense to sabotage Nordstream and reduce the potential financial benefits from the coup. In short, while it might not make sense for "Russia to blow up its own pipeline", it would make sense for 'certain Russians to blow up a pipeline owned by other Russians'.
leptons 3y ago
They destroyed their own economy for no good reason, why wouldn't they blow up their own pipeline too? Very little makes sense with regards to Russia's belligerent actions.
- kypro 3y ago
  "Destroyed" is far too strong. Their economy is doing fine all things considered.
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    All things considered? Their economy is doing much better than the majority of Europe. [1] Austria = 0.4, Canada = 1.7, France = 0.8, Germany = (-0.3), Sweden (-0.5), Switzerland 0.8, Italy = 1.1, etc. The overall growth rate in Europe is 0.6. Russia is at 1.5%. And Wiki is somewhat outdated. Their 2nd quarter growth has been published, and it's now up to 4.9%. IMO we're currently looking at a major inflection point in history, yet so many have no idea of what's happening. In the USSR there were two major state newspapers, pravda (meaning truth) and novosti (meaning news). A USSR era joke was, "Why do we have two newspapers, truth and news? Well that's because there's no truth in the news, and no news in the truth." [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
    - kypro 3y ago
      I added the "all things considered" because someone would inevitably come along and suggest that they could be doing better had they not invaded. It's much harder to disagree with the statement I made while also still making the point I wanted to make. But yeah, I agree with you. Russia's economy is looking very robust right now when compared to many major European economies.
    - leptons 3y ago
      The fact is the Ruble has been in steady decline. https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble Hit the "Max" tab. If that isn't what destroying their economy looks like, then maybe you need to take a another look. The economy of Europe will recover, Russia's will not. The price of the Euro is very stable and increasing. https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+euro https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+euro Germany, France, and the UK all have larger economies than Russia. Germany was 2x that of Russia's and is far smaller in geographic area. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-th... >The overall growth rate in Europe is 0.6. Russia is at 1.5%. According to who?? Putin? I guess if you're hitting rock bottom, there's no place to go but up? Thanks but I'll put my money in Euros before I put it into Rubles.
      - somenameforme 3y ago
        The data on Wiki is from the IMF. [1] Incidentally it's also outdated there. The recent changes continue to trend in the same direction. They're reporting Russia's growth as 2.2% while Germany's down to -0.5%. Interestingly Russia is now growing even faster than the US as well. It's definitely true that Russia's currency is currently weakening, but the reason this is a threat is not because that in and of itself, but rather knock-on effects. A big one is inflation. And Russia is absolutely seeing rapidly increasing inflation right now [2], but it remains to see if that starts hitting threatening levels. In the current state of the world I think putting your money in any currency is absurdly risky, with very little hope for meaningful returns. It's the reason even US treasuries are paying out such high interest rates. As always, it seems the only real hedge is "real" things - precious metals, real estate, and so on. [1] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/... [2] - https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
  - leptons 3y ago
    https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble Hit the "Max" tab.
m_eiman 3y ago
One theory is that it allows the Russian company that was supposed to deliver gas to Europe to get out of paying fines for not delivering enough gas - they'd blame it on force majeure. They were intentionally limiting gas deliveries to pressure Europe out of helping Ukraine, and this was a way to blame it on someone else.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > it allows the Russian company that was supposed to deliver gas to Europe to get out of paying fines for not delivering enough gas I think the evidence favors either Russia or Ukraine having destroyed the pipeline. But this isn't a great reason. Russia straight up stole the airplanes its domestic airlines leased. It could simply refuse to pay the fines, too.
  - mschuster91 3y ago
    > Russia straight up stole the airplanes its domestic airlines leased. It could simply refuse to pay the fines, too. Well, the planes already were in Russia, foreign lenders can't seize them. But fines for non-delivery can still be taken in by seizing assets of the Russian companies in Western countries. Our legal systems unfortunately don't allow wholesale seizure of everything Russia, so it needs an actual contract violation for a seizure order to be upheld.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > the planes already were in Russia, foreign lenders can't seize them. But fines for non-delivery can still be taken in by seizing assets of the Russian companies in Western countries. You can do the same thing to compensate the owners of the planes.
      - mschuster91 3y ago
        No. You can't go and seize a random oligarch's assets to compensate the lenders of airplanes, and Aeroflot takes great care to avoid airspace where Western sanctions could hit them - the exception being Turkey, but they won't do anything that endangers their sort-of "neutrality".
qwytw 3y ago
Are you talking about the Nord Stream pipeline blown up last year? Because this specific pipeline has nothing to do with Russia. The opposite, it connects Finland to the Baltic States which have a pipeline with Poland and then the rest of Europe... So if Russia is indeed blowing up pipelines blowing up Balticconnector would make perfect sense.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- adasdasdas 3y ago
  Oh damn, you're right, I totally misread the article
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
dist-epoch 3y ago
Because sometimes you sacrifice the queen to win the game.
trhway 3y ago
The best evidence convincing me personally was the overwise unexplainable behavior of a tanker of a Greek company connected to Putin https://www.businessinsider.com/nord-stream-mystery-minerva-julie-russia-ukraine-germany-alexander-osint-2023-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/nord-stream-mystery-minerva-...

Because there are a number of internal actors who would have benefited from doing so. For example, if Putin had felt threatened by someone trying to overthrow him, and negotiate an end to sanctions (and the Ukraine war), it might make sense to sabotage Nordstream and reduce the potential financial benefits from the coup. In short, while it might not make sense for "Russia to blow up its own pipeline", it would make sense for 'certain Russians to blow up a pipeline owned by other Russians'.

leptons 3y ago

They destroyed their own economy for no good reason, why wouldn't they blow up their own pipeline too? Very little makes sense with regards to Russia's belligerent actions.

kypro 3y ago
"Destroyed" is far too strong. Their economy is doing fine all things considered.
- somenameforme 3y ago
  All things considered? Their economy is doing much better than the majority of Europe. [1] Austria = 0.4, Canada = 1.7, France = 0.8, Germany = (-0.3), Sweden (-0.5), Switzerland 0.8, Italy = 1.1, etc. The overall growth rate in Europe is 0.6. Russia is at 1.5%. And Wiki is somewhat outdated. Their 2nd quarter growth has been published, and it's now up to 4.9%. IMO we're currently looking at a major inflection point in history, yet so many have no idea of what's happening. In the USSR there were two major state newspapers, pravda (meaning truth) and novosti (meaning news). A USSR era joke was, "Why do we have two newspapers, truth and news? Well that's because there's no truth in the news, and no news in the truth." [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
  - kypro 3y ago
    I added the "all things considered" because someone would inevitably come along and suggest that they could be doing better had they not invaded. It's much harder to disagree with the statement I made while also still making the point I wanted to make. But yeah, I agree with you. Russia's economy is looking very robust right now when compared to many major European economies.
  - leptons 3y ago
    The fact is the Ruble has been in steady decline. https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble Hit the "Max" tab. If that isn't what destroying their economy looks like, then maybe you need to take a another look. The economy of Europe will recover, Russia's will not. The price of the Euro is very stable and increasing. https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+euro https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+euro Germany, France, and the UK all have larger economies than Russia. Germany was 2x that of Russia's and is far smaller in geographic area. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-th... >The overall growth rate in Europe is 0.6. Russia is at 1.5%. According to who?? Putin? I guess if you're hitting rock bottom, there's no place to go but up? Thanks but I'll put my money in Euros before I put it into Rubles.
    - somenameforme 3y ago
      The data on Wiki is from the IMF. [1] Incidentally it's also outdated there. The recent changes continue to trend in the same direction. They're reporting Russia's growth as 2.2% while Germany's down to -0.5%. Interestingly Russia is now growing even faster than the US as well. It's definitely true that Russia's currency is currently weakening, but the reason this is a threat is not because that in and of itself, but rather knock-on effects. A big one is inflation. And Russia is absolutely seeing rapidly increasing inflation right now [2], but it remains to see if that starts hitting threatening levels. In the current state of the world I think putting your money in any currency is absurdly risky, with very little hope for meaningful returns. It's the reason even US treasuries are paying out such high interest rates. As always, it seems the only real hedge is "real" things - precious metals, real estate, and so on. [1] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/... [2] - https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
- leptons 3y ago
  https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble https://www.google.com/search?q=price+of+ruble Hit the "Max" tab.

m_eiman 3y ago

One theory is that it allows the Russian company that was supposed to deliver gas to Europe to get out of paying fines for not delivering enough gas - they'd blame it on force majeure. They were intentionally limiting gas deliveries to pressure Europe out of helping Ukraine, and this was a way to blame it on someone else.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> it allows the Russian company that was supposed to deliver gas to Europe to get out of paying fines for not delivering enough gas I think the evidence favors either Russia or Ukraine having destroyed the pipeline. But this isn't a great reason. Russia straight up stole the airplanes its domestic airlines leased. It could simply refuse to pay the fines, too.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > Russia straight up stole the airplanes its domestic airlines leased. It could simply refuse to pay the fines, too. Well, the planes already were in Russia, foreign lenders can't seize them. But fines for non-delivery can still be taken in by seizing assets of the Russian companies in Western countries. Our legal systems unfortunately don't allow wholesale seizure of everything Russia, so it needs an actual contract violation for a seizure order to be upheld.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > the planes already were in Russia, foreign lenders can't seize them. But fines for non-delivery can still be taken in by seizing assets of the Russian companies in Western countries. You can do the same thing to compensate the owners of the planes.
    - mschuster91 3y ago
      No. You can't go and seize a random oligarch's assets to compensate the lenders of airplanes, and Aeroflot takes great care to avoid airspace where Western sanctions could hit them - the exception being Turkey, but they won't do anything that endangers their sort-of "neutrality".

qwytw 3y ago

Are you talking about the Nord Stream pipeline blown up last year? Because this specific pipeline has nothing to do with Russia. The opposite, it connects Finland to the Baltic States which have a pipeline with Poland and then the rest of Europe... So if Russia is indeed blowing up pipelines blowing up Balticconnector would make perfect sense.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
adasdasdas 3y ago
Oh damn, you're right, I totally misread the article

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

dist-epoch 3y ago

Because sometimes you sacrifice the queen to win the game.

trhway 3y ago

The best evidence convincing me personally was the overwise unexplainable behavior of a tanker of a Greek company connected to Putin https://www.businessinsider.com/nord-stream-mystery-minerva-julie-russia-ukraine-germany-alexander-osint-2023-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/nord-stream-mystery-minerva-...