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French ‘Three Strikes’ Law Slashes Piracy, But Fails to Boost Sales
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- citricsquid 14y agoThis article is ridiculous. It has cherry picked statistics and misrepresented them. In 2011 digital downloads of music (through legitimate services, eg: itunes, spotify) GREW almost 20%(!!!). The reason that the overall statistics show a drop is because of physical media being included and that has fallen a huge amount: > Internet music growth was insufficient to offset falling sales of music on physical supports, down 11.5 percent to EUR 412 million, with the overall recorded music market falling by 3.9 percent in 2011. If you ONLY consider the digital side: > Download revenues grew by 18.4 percent compared to 2010. Streaming and subscriptions grew by 73 percent to EUR 39 million. Subscriptions services such as those from Spotify and Deezer grew by 89 percent to EUR 26 million. http://www.telecompaper.com/news/french-online-music-worth-eur-110-mln-in-2011-study http://www.telecompaper.com/news/french-online-music-worth-e... So when the author says: > So if piracy is down massively in France, one would expect that the revenues are soaring, right? He is being deceitful. Revenues are soaring..., they're up almost 20% on 2010. If the aim of the three strike rule was to stop digital piracy and increase digital sales that is exactly what it has achieved, they've dropped piracy 50% and increased sales 20%. You can't include the physical media sales in the latter to make a point...
- glesica 14y agoI think you may have missed his point, he's actually saying the same thing you are. He uses the total revenue metric because that is what the industry has been using in its lobbying and PR efforts for many years. The industry has claimed that the decrease in total revenue it has experienced is being driven entirely (or almost entirely) by piracy. If this were true, then the piracy reduction in France would lead to higher total revenue. Since that has not been the case, the link between piracy and total revenue seems to have been overstated by the industry. The author then suggests that the drop in total revenue has been caused by new, less profitable formats, which is exactly what you pointed out (with evidence), rather than piracy. I agree that the headline and some of the language are a bit sensationalist, but the point of the article is valid and in agreement with your points.
- twelvechairs 14y agoI agree the article is one sided, but rather than your view I still think its a moot point. Internet sales grew 18.4%, whilst overall sales were down 3.9%. I'm not sure either of these figures are so far out of line with what is happening in other countries for either side to claim they say anything about the impacts of this law clearly.
- paulsutter 14y agoExcellent point - what's called for here is a real comparative study, and this new French law is an opportunity for that. Unfortunately we're going to hear two diametrically opposite views, both "based on the numbers", neither shedding light on the subject.
- nextparadigms 14y agoIt's also possible and likely that in 2011 iTunes sales grew because of the increased sales of iOS devices in France, not necessarily because piracy was replaced by more purchases. Plus, they are only tracking bittorrent - which means that half of the piracy could've shifted to other methods, as soon as they learned about the P2P monitoring program.
- bigiain 14y agoYou accuse this article of "being deceitful", when "the industry" claims $250_BILLION_ per year losses to piracy? http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/12/how-much-do-music-and-movie-piracy-really-hurt-the-u-s-economy/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/12/how-much-do-music-and... 'In 2010, the Government Accountability Office released a report noting that these figures “cannot be substantiated or traced back to an underlying data source or methodology,” which is polite government-speak for “these figures were made up out of thin air.”' I find it _very_ hard to find any sympathy for the music or film industries having numbers and statistics bent or misused against them. These people have been getting laws enacted based on numbers they've just made up - with _clearly_ no possible basis in fact. So this article has turned the tables. About time, in my opinion. See also: http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110903/00070515801/mpaas-bogus-piracy-numbers-mean-it-thinks-downloaders-would-buy-200-more-dvds-per-year.shtml http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110903/00070515801/mpaas-... http://blog.ted.com/2012/03/20/the-numbers-behind-the-copyright-math/ http://blog.ted.com/2012/03/20/the-numbers-behind-the-copyri...
- Fargren 14y agoThat's and ad hominem fallacy right there. The fact that the industry are making ridiculous numbers out of crappy statistics doesn't mean an argument that does the same thing is a justified argument against them. I think the point of the OP is very valid: the article looks at the wrong numbers, and it does it intentionally.
- ticks 14y agoBear in mind, it's Torrent Freak. Most news sources are skewed one or another, those lot don't like the big copyright guys.
- i_cannot_hack 14y agoYes, the digital sales "GREW almost 20%(!!!)", as you enthusiastically put it. But you behave as if this is somehow extraordinary, and on top of it all automatically[0] assume that this is due to the reduction in piracy. In UK digital sales grew by 27% in 2011 alone, and they have no similar laws.[1] The truth is that the digital sales are increasing drastically all over the world, not just in France. This does not have anything to do with any reduction in piracy, but is due to a wider selection of products and more accessible market. [0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc [1] http://www.bpi.co.uk/assets/files/music%20sales%20slip%20in%202011%20but%20digital%20grow%20strongly.pdf http://www.bpi.co.uk/assets/files/music%20sales%20slip%20in%...
- Silhouette 14y agoIn UK digital sales grew by 27% in 2011 alone, and they have no similar laws. Actually, we do, primarily under the controversial Digital Economy Act that was pushed through just before the last general election. The laws aren't widely applied yet in the way that they apparently have been in France, but there has been some fairly high profile threatening going on all the same. In other words, while I'm certainly not equating the situation in the two countries and the seriousness or otherwise of the threat to pirates right now, it's probably not fair to totally discount the effect of anti-piracy rules in the UK either.
- i_cannot_hack 14y agoAs you say, the laws aren't widely applied yet, and I hardly think britain has had a 50% cut in piracy. Buy hey, let's take my country (Sweden) as an example then. Digital sales went up a whopping 65% in 2011[0], and I can promise you that although we've have had some digital rights laws (like IPRED) no pirates here are actually afraid of getting caught, and the Pirate Party are still going strong. Actually, the only country with a sizable reduction in piracy (France) seem to be the one with the least increase in digital sales. My guess is that the large increase in digital sales in Sweden is mainly due to the popularity of Spotify. [0] http://www.ifpi.se/wp/wp-content/uploads/GLF-f%C3%B6rs%C3%A4ljningsstatistik-GLF-hel%C3%A5ret-2011.pdf http://www.ifpi.se/wp/wp-content/uploads/GLF-f%C3%B6rs%C3%A4... (in swedish)
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- guard-of-terra 14y agoHow does it work? I mean, every single torrent connection is encrypted today. How would they know that I'm seeding something copyrighted, not a windows swap file?
- Zirro 14y agoThey simply check which IPs are in a certain swarm, for a certain file. This is then reported to issue a strike against the connected IPs.
- guard-of-terra 14y agoSo they seed files themselves and if you're unlucky enough to download from their seed you're busted? This would probably mean you're reasonably safe if you're downloading niche stuff; private trackers would also help?
- Zirro 14y agoI would assume it's enough for them to join a swarm to locate other peers. There are probably automated tools which can do this very quickly, just like I can see the IPs of fellow peers, both seeders and leechers in my torrentclient. Both of your statements are true, though.
- guard-of-terra 14y agoOww. I didn't think of that.
- drostie 14y agoYou can see a prototype of an open system for this sort of thing here: http://www.youhavedownloaded.com/ http://www.youhavedownloaded.com/ . (Actually, that site is pretty interesting to visit if you're on a friend's WiFi or at an airport or internet cafe -- I just found out that, from this WiFi point, someone downloaded The Lion King in December 2011.) But yeah. Pretty much any tracker is constantly disclosing peers; that's how BitTorrent works. It is considered important for a tracker to introduce fake IP addresses into these lists, so that simply being on the list is not enough to prove that someone was actually downloading a given bit of content, and there have now been research groups which have gotten takedown notices delivered to printers and so forth, so that if you're not confirmed to be seeding content it's hard to confirm that you're breaking the law. It is also considered best practice with BitTorrent to use an IP blocklist with your client, but those are probably not too hard for a dedicated attacker to get around -- if you share illegal material and use an IP blocklist, you are basically saying "I will hope that you pick the low-lying fruit first, before you pick me."
- truxs 14y agoThe biggest problem in France is the lake of legal offers for anything but music, and this won't change soon for several reasons: -2€ for an episode of house, SD, for 48 hours, up to 5€ for a movie for 48 hours but still they are complaining about the situation and would like to change the prices up to 8€/SDmovie for 48h http://www.journaldugeek.com/2012/03/28/vod-des-fims-plus-chers-en-france-voulus-par-les-syndicats/ http://www.journaldugeek.com/2012/03/28/vod-des-fims-plus-ch... -Legally you need to wait 3 years after the theater release to put a movie on vod. Why it won't change ? Because canal+ a private channel who broadcast movies only 10 month after their release is also the main financial contributor of french productions. http://www.numerama.com/magazine/22024-l-effort-minimal-de-canal-pour-reviser-la-chronologie-des-medias.html http://www.numerama.com/magazine/22024-l-effort-minimal-de-c...
- cabalamat 14y agoGood. I hope the copyright industry doesn't gain a single penny because of Hadopi.
- alan_cx 14y agoWell, its all based on the idea that people who "illegally" download would have bought the item otherwise. Really not true. Mostly the reason is either convenience or lack of cash to buy in the first place. I think of all the CD's I bought in the past which turned out to be garbage apart from the two singles released which are the reason for buying the CD. I think of all the DVD's I bought that I watched once. Now I don't have to waste my money. I can down load for free and buy a decent packaged copy if I deem it worthy of my money. Thing is, I've been stitched up for years by these gits with terrible product, and I was getting back my wasted money. Now I purchase wisely because I can try it out first. I only buy what I personally feel is good product. I delete the garbage. I suppose the media companies will require lots of their customers to be sued and jailed before any one in politics stands up to them and says, " no, you are wrong. You sales are down because your product is mostly rubbish, and sold in an inconvenient way. People are valuing your product as zero. Where they don't, they buy. " What the media companies are concerned about is that they are losing the ability to con us with rubbish. What I think is good, is that the sales they now do have are probably better quality sales, and the people who did buy are happier with what they bought. Said it before, but all that is happening here is that governments are for some reason trying to prop up failing business models. I dont understand why. If it were that the pace of technology threatened a clockwork clock company, then that company would be expected to either move on or go out of business. Some how, no so with the media companies. I assume that its to do with money, political funding and the usual democratic corruption. Pah, could be wrong, but that's my current thinking.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- J3L2404 14y ago>People are valuing your product as zero. Where they don't, they buy. No. The popular content is downloaded more. You can jump thru hoops and do backflips but the fact is people don't want to pay. Period. Everything else is justification.
- zanny 14y agoOf course they don't want to buy, they recognize the cost of reproduction is zero. It is hard fact that once someone sets all the trillions of bits in a movie, game, operating system, or anything else we do, just ONCE, you can clone it for nothing as many times as you want. Until we get off the distribution per unit model of retail we will have this war against consumers.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- waterlesscloud 14y agoOf course, the point of laws and law enforcement is to cut crime, which this did.
- tomp 14y agoWhen 3% of society are criminals, you pass more laws in hope to stop the crimes. When 30% of the society are criminals, your laws are wrong.
- tsotha 14y agoNo, the point of laws is not to cut crime. The point of a law is reduce socially damaging behavior. What is the point of this law?
- waterlesscloud 14y agoTo reduce socially damaging behavior. It is anti-social to attempt to benefit from the work of others without compensating them.
- guard-of-terra 14y agoSince when it is so? I'm benefiting from the existence of the alphabet, Linux operating system or declaration of human rights without compensating their creators. The best things, ones you really need, come for free. The best things could not exist if they weren't, and we'd still be in the stone age with your mindset.
- waterlesscloud 14y agoLinux wouldn't exist without a lot of compensated work that came before it. But seriously, these are different categories of things we're discussing here, and that has to be be abundantly clear to everyone.
- guard-of-terra 14y ago
- sek 14y agoThe reason why the Entertainment industry loses so much was never just piracy, the majority are the alternatives that are available on the internet. All this time people spend on Soundcloud and Facebook has to come somewhere. A YouTube catvideo replaces time people can spend on TV or hearing their favorite artist. They all have a MBA who are in charge these entertainment companies, they should have heard of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porter_five_forces_analysis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porter_five_forces_analysis Substitute goods everywhere and you gonna have a difficult time, but blaming someone else is probably just easier.