Every prediction has error bars, some error bars are smaller than others. I wouldn’t be so quick to throw my hands up. For example, the yield curve inversion h

Every prediction has error bars, some error bars are smaller than others. I wouldn’t be so quick to throw my hands up. For example, the yield curve inversion has had quite good predictive ability so far, and it’s predicting a recession. If you buy the fed’s data driven approach, that means its predicting rate decreases. In that case the long term bond market’s prediction is supported more strongly than the fed’s prediction.